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Asahi: Gov’t calculations “were way off” — Anti-nuclear sentiment has grown so large it could force change in energy policy

Published: August 23rd, 2012 at 1:07 pm ET
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(Subscription Only) Title: ANALYSIS: Support for nuke-free Japan defies government calculations
Source: THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
Date: August 23, 2012

Policymakers determined to maintain nuclear energy believed most people would still want it as part of the nation’s power generation despite the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.

Their calculations were way off.

In a new type of government poll, 46.7 percent of respondents favored scrapping nuclear power generation by 2030 after hearing expert opinions and holding discussions among themselves, according to the results released on Aug. 22.

In fact, anti-nuclear sentiment has grown so large that it could force the government to adjust its plan for the nation’s long-term energy policy and will likely become a key issue in election campaigns.

[...]

In May, nuclear policy minister Goshi Hosono was so confident that he said the 15 percent option will form a basis for government discussions.

“If voters discuss the issue, opinions will converge on 15 percent,” a senior industry ministry official said before the two-day discussions as part of the deliberative polling ended on Aug. 5.

[...]

Government officials expected support for the 15 percent option would increase when voters learned that going nuclear-free could stunt economic growth, increase carbon dioxide emissions and raise electricity bills.

In reality, however, support for the 15 percent option fell from 16.8 percent in the initial telephone survey to 15.4 percent in the third survey after the discussions, while support for the nuclear-free option jumped from 32.6 percent to 46.7 percent.

Support for the 20-25 percent option remained unchanged at 13 percent.

[...]

“It is necessary to touch on ‘zero nuclear power generation’ if (Noda) wants to win the DPJ presidential election (expected on Sept. 21),” a lawmaker close to the prime minister said.

[...]

Gov’t Flip-Flop?

Cabinet ministers have indicated the possibility of an alternative to the three nuclear energy options.

“It does not mean that the options are limited to three,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said.

Industry minister Yukio Edano said, “We are not necessarily sticking to (the target year of 2030).”

These statements suggest that the government may adopt a nuclear-free policy but still emasculate it by leaving the target year ambiguous or adding preconditions.

Published: August 23rd, 2012 at 1:07 pm ET
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August 23rd, 2012 | Category: Japan (Fukushima)
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