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EU-funded Study: Over 20,000 square miles of Japan potentially contaminated from Fukushima releases — Home to 43 million people (MAP)

Published: February 13th, 2014 at 9:28 am ET
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European Commission, Science for Environment Policy News Alert (pdf) (emphasis added): [...] The EU-funded study modelled the global spread of radionuclides of caesium and iodine from Fukushima [...] between March and May 2011 [...] It focused on radionuclides that were emitted as gases [...] The International Atomic Energy Agency defines ’contamination’ as the presence of a radioactive substance in quantities more than 40 kilobecquerels per m². [...] land area affected by radioactivity from both types of radionuclides above this threshold is approximately 34,000 km² of Japan, inhabited by around 9.4 million people. However, the estimate used for the iodine radionuclide emissions from the incident is considered to be an underestimate. A separate calculation which assumed source emissions that were five times greater, suggested that a relatively large and densely populated part of Japan – 56,000 km² [21,622 square miles] – would be classified as contaminated. [...] It should be emphasised that this refers to two radionuclides only, whereas additional ones are unaccounted for due to a lack of measurements. [...]

Modelling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident (pdf), 2013 (emphasis added): Chino et al. (2011) estimate a total [131I] release of 150 PBq [...] results are considered by [the] authors to be lower estimates and to have an error of at least a factor of five. Winiarek et al. (2012) estimate the lower bound of the total activity of 131I released into the atmosphere [...] between 190 and 700 PBq [...] We estimate that the land area affected by the deposition of radioactivity in excess of 40 kBqm² is approximately 34,000 km². [...] this part of Japan is inhabited by 9.4 million people. The surface area that received a total deposition greater than 10 kBqm² encompasses parts of the Tokyo metropolitan area, and approximately covers 60,000 km2, being inhabited by 46 million people. We emphasize that this is based on the emission of 150 PBq 131I estimated by Chino et al. (2011), which might actually be a factor of five too low.

Discussion Paper (pdf): To test the potential of a larger source than 150 PBq 131I, we performed a sensitivity test by applying 5 times higher emissions, based on the emissions estimate uncertainty by Chino et al. (2011). [...] an area of 56,000 km², inhabited by 43 million people, would be contaminated by more than 40 kBqm², including the Tokyo metropolitan area. Although this large 131I source is speculative, it seems more realistic than the low estimate of 150 PBq [...]

View the full European Commission News Alert here (pdf)

Published: February 13th, 2014 at 9:28 am ET
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103 comments

103 comments to EU-funded Study: Over 20,000 square miles of Japan potentially contaminated from Fukushima releases — Home to 43 million people (MAP)

  • ftlt

    Thank you EU-SoEP… The 225 KM2, we had posted on here last week in an article, was a ridiculously low total contaminated area for Japan.

    This thing just keeps on spewing too… Northern Japan is FUFUed


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  • Proton

    20000 sq. miles??

    Way more likely after 1000+ days of FUKU emissions,
    the entire earth is covered with it!


    Report comment

  • Rufus

    What is "potentially" contaminated?
    Either it is, or it isn't.
    More lies and obfuscation.


    Report comment

  • Ontological Ontological

    How many of those 43 million JP are still actually there? Weeks of wave after wave of 36 cpm dosimeter readings indoors, that last for a minute or so tells me something is not right way over there so far away. The radnet station across the valley has an even higher ave.
    I feel the pain and suffering of so many people animals, birds etc. emanating from Honshu since the snow. Pain is a new normal.


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    • PaciFistic Pacifisitic

      Hi Ontological, I'm new to this but your citing "wave after wave of 36 cpm dosimeter readings…that last for a minute…something not right way over there", and gottagetoffthegrid above you implying a Chernobyl reading of 0.5microSV/hr as not good…seems to me that going by a US monitoring network site, those figures are pretty common cross the board and quite baseline in the US, while figures for alerts are well above. This to me is a little confusing and will need some research on my part, but in the meantime would really appreciate your comments, or anyone else's…thanks!


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      • zogerke zogerke

        pacificistic – i think each area has a baseline that is impacted by the radiation. i never measured before this year. my baseline in philadelphia PA, within 50-60 miles of at least 3 nukes, is about 44 cpm. Sometiems as low as 20s…my morning average today was 38 but often it is up near 50 or above. snowfall spikes my readings up to 80/90 cpm. YUCK. Some here feel the difference in their health. I don't know if I am that tuned in. But I have an Inspector, and monitor.
        Glancing at mine, its been having brief spikes all day 54-68 cpm. Then back down.


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      • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGNBZ-MdW84

        That clip shows 0.0485 microSeivert/ hour @ 280 cpm

        .0485 micro Sv/hr is 1/10 of the .5 micro Sv/hrs warning different different evacuation blue zone. things with different equipment. The micrOSeivert isn't standard either as it is a mathematical equation using a weighing factor to measure radiation damage to tissue. However that depends on tissue type and other factors so even comparing that measurement can't be done accurately. However, normal background falls into the.05 to .30 range. Hope this helps.


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    • We Not They Finally

      You can't possibly think that 36 cpm is high. We live in an area of the U.S. that zoomed up to 1,000 CPM late this past December. And the norm here is a few hundred. It's horrible. We should probably run for our lives. We are trying to move, but that's not instant.


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      • GQR2

        i hear that We Not They Finally -
        checking in from the NE corner of NM.
        The readings are so high everyday.
        i tried to take a walk today but it was too windy to safely take a deep breath for real. Add the chemtrails of course.


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        • We Not They Finally

          Yeah, we're in Albuquerque. Already sandwiched between Los Alamos and Carlsbad. Now Fukushima.


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          • PaciFistic Pacifisitic

            Thanks all, from zogerke down to We Not They Finally, yeah, this is all very interesting, being a first-timer here. On the west coast up in BC, I don't know, we may be falling asleep at the wheel. But checking out the netc site, been noticing lately red alert icons and a few higher ones indicating concern in the SE quarter of the US. It did dawn on me these reports might be from around your numerous nuke plants, and wondering whether they might be venting on the sly. There has to be a reason for the high figures.

            My own readings–with Medcom's Inspector Alert V2–taken once a week over last 3 weeks, 40 minutes each time, averaged .095microSv/hr 32cpm, .089microSv/hr 30cpm, and .098microSv/hr 33cpm, and that's in the house. Quite consistent, but with no plants here they strike me as a tad high. So not sure how I'd react if I start showing cpms in the 300s like some in the States, which is 10 times mine. That will take some reflection, and certainly further research.


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      • Radnet's system is much more sensitive than a handheld.

        1000 on radnet used to be the alert level, although I don't know how many peaks would have to be sustained for an actual alert

        A handheld alert level depends on model being used, but will be far lower than radnet

        It's clear from the amount ofradnet stations down and data tampering that official alerts will not be given


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    • PhilipUpNorth PhilipUpNorth

      Nick:
      Yup!
      ;)

      PS. Andso are we all.
      My estimate is that now fully 75% of Americans will be diagnosed with some form of cancer during their lifetimes. Big oops, corporations/government/military…


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      • We Not They Finally

        I think that you're correct. It's just way worse than "just" disease for the living. The genomes mutated. Photos of children born at Chernobyl (or even Fallujah, Iraq!– from depleted uranium) are horrifying.

        We'll also see how the so-called "pro-lifers" fare then. Or lectures about what "God" must want. Anyone merciful God would not want THIS.


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  • Socrates

    The US and China are countries very likely to experience large areas of contamination from radioactivity in the future.

    Chernobyl should have been a warning. Fukushima should have been a warning. At least SONGS was shut down before this happened to Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties.

    The nuclear industry would rather push for elimination of the freedom of the press than to loss profits. With laws protecting the industry from liability for damages, why not take chances? Will a "regulator" slam their hand?

    We need to elect politicians who are vetted on this issue who will enact laws that protect people, not energy companies. Hint:, neither party has more than one or two such candidates. I knew of one congressional candidate only who took such a position.

    These politicians want to allow these risks to be taken. It will not be until the same fate as Fukushima happens to a NPP in the USA that campaign contributions will be overcome. By then it will be too late. There will be economic collapse in any country in which this happens. I have predicted collapse in Japan since day one. It happened to the Soviet Union.

    Shut 'em all down before it happens again and again, as it will. Insurance companies will not underwrite so why should the taxpayers and the population?


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    • We Not They Finally

      Most Americans do not even know that insurance companies will not underwrite NPP's — that it has ALWAYS been the taxpayers. And it would help if America got activated over BIG things. The "all politics is local" has not served us well — just people at each others' throats.


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    • J.

      The most obvious, simple, and important political change needed in every country on earth: totally publicly financed election campaigns, established as state policy, by constitutional amendment if necessary. Every politician is automatically corrupted by the fund-raising process, and there is absolutely no excuse for it. There are all kinds of discussions about political change, but few get right to the heart of the problem.


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      • We Not They Finally

        Absolutely true, J. Now let's get a big broom and sweep out the Supreme Court into the street. Congresspeople next. But by now it's a "stacked deck."

        It's also America. With a national temperament of instant gratification. Things get done by way of personal greed and/or public emergency needing attention NOW.

        Would love to see a national public forum on where we are going and if the wild horses can be charging elsewhere. For instance, the upcoming massive health crises takes planning, but that's already in the hands of all the wrong people. The National Institute (under NIH — federal) has already said that they think that cancer is "over-diagnosed." That only when it's "life-threatening" should it be called cancer.

        So maybe people with stage 1 or 2 won't get the care. And people with stage 4? — well, they were "expected" to die anyway.

        Incidentally, stage 3 isn't a picnic, either…

        And you are totally correct. There is NO EXCUSE. But we also need strategies for changing INSTITUTIONS. It's very hard.


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  • or-well or-well

    No one can accurately say because there has been no COMPREHENSIVE testing for:
    "legacy fallout"
    contamination from "routine releases"
    " " multiple accidents
    " " Fukushima
    " " debris burning & disposal
    " " multiple transport vectors

    However "leopard spotted" ANY territory is, there's no place on earth not exposed.

    "…living on territories with even weak radioactivity for decades is extremely dangerous because internal radiation develops, immunity suffers and genetic problems occur."
    (Prof. Vsevolod Kortov, Russian Academy of Sciences)


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    • Socrates

      Or-well,

      Low but continuous radiation exposure causes different effects in the human body than does single large doses. Once the cells are primed, the low dose exposures cause cascading effects and disrupts cellular signaling. Immune function changes. Genetic changes for future generations and susceptibility to cancers, damage to thyroid function…

      It is difficult to assess but you know it is a total, worldwide catastrophe. 65 years of radiation and more on the way.


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      • or-well or-well

        Yes.
        They don't like to talk about "continuous".
        Or worldwide.
        Or generational genetics.
        Or much else.
        We see the beyond-absurd partitioning, on a street-by-street basis, of contaminated towns and villages, the use of out-dated data, the use of negligent criteria, the referencing of corrupted science…

        or-well


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      • john dpugh

        +++ Well said . Most people think radiation is only causing cancer but it has many damaging effects . Low level radiation is just as damaging , even more so than short term high level radiation , contrary to what pronuke has been trying to convince everyone for years .


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  • newsblackoutUSA newsblackoutUSA

    Adding to the horror, the most contaminated area was the bread basket of Japan. The government is forcing farmers to sell tainted food products. The farmers have protested, but the government continues to force them to bring the products to market.

    http://enenews.com/rice-grown-near-fukushima-plant-cleared-for-sale-farmer-i-would-not-dare-eat-it-myself-we-farmers-know-better-we-feel-guilt-about-growing-it-and-selling-it-video


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    • GQR2

      http://www.fukuleaks.org/web/?p=12058
      our culture has a way,and i do not for the life of me get why so many people accept pure unadulterated bullshit as the norm. Be it in the doctors office,the classroom,and certainly the mass media of understating or omitting major aspects of a story. Everybody just wants to be spoon fed,taught to be authoritarian not question,trust our beloved hero experts and authority figures. And worse pathologize those who don't. Oppositional Defiant Disorder is a knee slapper. Though they apply this to little bratty kids. Then of course if you have an issue,being a human and not a robot you might have an adjustment disorder. Another hilarious one.
      say the stories about the drought in California,the devastation utter complete radio active soup that Japan and the rest of the planet is soaking in.
      Food prices are going to be manipulated something fierce.
      starvation is a tried and true Fascist weapon of choice.


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      • john dpugh

        GQR2 That article about european jam being high in caesium just shows how quickly we have forgotten about chernobyl. Most of eastern europe is highly contaminated . There is nothing anyone can do about it , so they just accept it as a fact of everyday life.


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      • unincredulous unincredulous

        Recently, I read that locally, 60 percent of the children are not ready for kindergarten.

        What the hell? It's lunacy. What does it take to be ready for kindergarten. I suppose the kids have not learned to nap, hold a crayon, or play. I guess they need kindergarten kids who can solve quantum mechanics of nuclear radionuclides, and not question the government. Maybe electroshock and a quantum chip would prepare them. We are assimilated. It is futile to resist. Give the government more money to fix it, is what they want, I guess.

        As headlines get odder by the day, we can only hope we have a CME that knocks out power to enough nuke power plants to kill us all quickly. While we are still human. I'm tired, stopping now before the rant explodes.


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        • GQR2

          Probably pervasive developmental delays from radiation,failure to thrive intellectually and develop motor skills
          Not being able to play outside or have the energy to play inside really does harm them. They're likely ill. Did the article say what was the matter with them ? They have been robbed!


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        • SykeWar(DELETED) SykeWar

          Nothing a little chemical lobotomy won't fix. 70 million and climbing….


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        • AirSepTech AirSepTech

          +1
          A very short time ago a man and a woman worried about providing enough food and shelter for the family. Would we even live long enough to get them to a stage of being self-supporting.
          No electric
          No fossil fuel
          Not much else

          Now we need Nanny.gov to survive. We are in the Matrix


          Report comment

          • We Not They Finally

            You've got some things backwards. ("Don't Tread On Me" is also very backwards. Don't get me too upset cataloguing why.) It's not "nanny.gov" that's the problem. It's that greed and corporate rule took self-governing out of the populace's hands. We NEED good government. You're not a child or elderly or disabled or currently ill, so you don't think so. That is very short-sighted and also lacks compassion.

            Think about it.


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            • AirSepTech AirSepTech

              ????
              "Considered one of the first flags of the United States, the flag was later replaced by the current Stars and Stripes (or Old Glory) flag. Since the Revolution, the flag has seen times of reintroduction as a symbol of American patriotism, a symbol of disagreement with government, or a symbol of support for civil liberties."

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadsden_flag

              My apologies if it offends you. I would prefer in many ways to display Old Glory inverted, but many do not understand what that means.

              You have mischaracterized me and I can live with that.

              Enough Off Topic


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  • sworldpeas sworldpeas


    Tepco takes a dump
    A giant cesium turd
    Pass the baby wipes


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  • Highly Radioactive Fukushima‬ Tsunami Ocean Debris, One Sample Tested 2 Million Bq/kg; via @AGreenRoad
    http://agreenroad.blogspot.com/2014/02/highly-radioactive-fukushima-tsunami.html


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  • bluetick

    TOKYO JAPAN TO BE EVACUATED!!

    KIDS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!!!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlx1q7VUu10


    Report comment

    • or-well or-well

      Irresponsible all-capping bait.
      Big difference between what you say and truth.
      A physician calling for evacuation is not "Tokyo TO BE evacuated!!"
      This physician was the subject of an ENENews article Nov 11 2013.


      Report comment

    • bluetick

      Their headline not mine.. but I think you get the point if your dr. told you your childs white blood cell count had dropped to dangerously low levels and recommended you evacuate I know you would. I be gone in a flash… take me two days to make plans a week to sell everything and WHSSSSSSSS gone!!!!child would be on way to some place safer sooner if at all possible.


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      • or-well or-well

        bluetick, I get it.
        See my response to PhilipUpNorth below.
        It remains that you chose to repeat the inaccurate headline without caveat or clarification.
        "Infowars brings attention to a Japanese physicians important findings" would have been accurate and considerate of others.


        Report comment

  • PhilipUpNorth PhilipUpNorth

    or-well: All of Japan should have evacuated on the evening of 3/12/2011.
    They KNEW what was happening. Kan knew that it was his "worst case", calling for the evacuation of Tokyo. But. It was either the economy or the people. They chose the economy. So the evac didn't happen.

    I know you, or-well, don't like to blame the victims. I hear you, and agree. But the blame for this fiasco in Japan, can be spread beyond the tormentors to the victims.

    True, the blame is rightfully placed at the feet of the corporate nuclear industry, TEPCO, and the Japanese Government. Even the Americans, GE, etc.

    In Japan, the victims are silent, respectful of their tormentors, and dutifully "supporting by eating". The victims are willing in Japan. The victims will die, and see the endf their beautiful culture, in silence. Allows me to say to all of Japan:

    So, Japan, how's your frigging economy going for you these days? ;)


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    • PhilipUpNorth PhilipUpNorth

      But, the death of beautiful Japan is a horror to behold. What has happened there is NOT red colors on a map. It is death to millions. Horrible death. The sick will be caring fir the dying. A horrible atomic plague. My tears make it impossible to continue…


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    • or-well or-well

      PhilipUpNorth,
      My response to bluetick's statement -
      "TOKYO JAPAN TO BE EVACUATED!!"
      was simply to point out it's incorrect.
      There are other ways bluetick could have drawn attention to Dr. Mita or the ENENews article of Nov 11 2013 without a sensationalist all-caps headline that is inaccurate.
      That physician actually had important things to say.
      It's unfortunate if a misleading shouted headline turns people away from that.
      Why do folks have to make things up? Isn't the reality bad enough?


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    • J.

      With respect: it is almost impossible to evacuate Tokyo, let alone Japan. To say that it was an economic choice not to evacuate is meaningless. No country could afford such an evacuation, and there is no place for more than one hundred million evacuees to go, even if they were willing. I have read calls for Japan's evacuation repeatedly on this site. This is beyond pointless.

      A slow, steady exodus from Tokyo over many years is conceivable, but in fact statistics show growth of that city. I think those persons are making a horrendous mistake, and I think the MD cited above is absolutely right in warning the public, but the message is evidently not reaching, or not influencing, many people.


      Report comment

  • Nick

    My grandfather, who was caucasian, didn't know that he wasn't Japanese until he was five years old.

    His parents were missionaries in Japan from 1900-1941 (left on the last boat out of Yokohama Harbor in august '41).

    My mother spent several years as a child there before her folks moved back to Honolulu in 1936.

    My sister taught English for 4 years before conceiving her son in a building that survived the firestorms of WWII …..where her great-grandparents were.

    Suffice it to say, Japan is a significant chunk of my own heritage. Fukushima is horrible enough, but I also have to contend with a rather "personal" anguish.

    Side note: In 1941, on the day my mother turned 12, the world as we know it was changed forever when the US suffered a surprise attack at Pearl Harbor.

    In some ways the war is still with us, the living keep dying…..the legacy of 12/7/41 resulted in the
    atom bombs which led to the rebuilding of Japan with US technology (with a lot of nuclear) and the awful results of 3/11/11.

    Hell hath no fury like a vengeful heart….


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    • PhilipUpNorth PhilipUpNorth

      Fukushima is the fault of America, as much as it is the fault of Japan. Many thanks for sharing, Nick. Best of luck to your relatives and loved ones back in the motherland. Japan's coming destruction will be ever so much more complete, and the suffering so much more terrible, than that inflicted by America during the war. My tears, today, over the coming great cancer plague in Japan, are falling today like a hard rain, for some reason. I must go do other things…


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  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture

    CONSUMED BY NUCLEAR RADIATION . . .

    How long till the other half of the island is consumed . . .

    months, a year, two years?


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  • We Not They Finally

    So radioactive cesium and iodine are bad, but no one even measures strontium and plutonium?

    Almost ALL of the children in Tokyo have abnormally low white blood cell counts by now. Pre-cursor to leukemia. Strontium-90.


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  • I would like to know what the global map for the years 2020 and 2050 will look like.

    Considering the fact that the emissions continue daily into the atmosphere and sea, just what will we see in the not so distant future?

    March 11, 2020, that's 3288 days of radioactive contamination, from March 11, 2011. :( Triple where we are now.


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    • atomicistheword

      ChasAha,

      Seismic events may certainly alter such outcomes. It is certainly negligence to build atomic radiation power plants on or near fault lines (shorelines) and certainly without a failsafe protected generation plant.

      A look into caldera volcanoes could be of interest to those following events. I believe their is one in America called Yellowstone park.


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    • AirSepTech AirSepTech

      2050, a lot of factors, a difficult situation.

      Population was expected to grow from 7 billion +40% to 10 billion. 3 billion more young with a totally different exposure than what we have had until now. Not to mention the loss of land, food, water, etc. How and where and when the effect finally stabilizes????? Unknown.

      We are barely 50 years into nuclear power, and statistics would indicate more major accidents before 2050. Without a change in direction, the road ahead is short in time, long on risk.


      Report comment

  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Will we make it to 2050?


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    • Gasser Gasser

      Zager & Evens; In the Year 2525

      Before you read go here first for the gist of it.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=izQB2-Kmiic

      ~~~~~~~~~~~~

      In the year 2011

      
Man is still alive

      And woman has survived

      
They may find~~~~~~~~

      In the year 2012

      
NRC gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie

      Everything you think, do and say


      Is in the eavesdropping they took of you today

      In the year 2013

      
You may lose your health, and start saying family good by's 

      You won't find an uncontaminated thing to chew

      
Nobody's gonna look at you

      In the year 2014


      Your arms hangin' limp at your sides

      Your legs got nothin' to do

      
Some electric wheelchair's doin' that for you

      In the year 2015


      You won't have a healthy husband, won't have a healthy wife
      
You'll see your deformed son, and your daughter too

      
From the side of a long glass decontamination tube

      [cont]


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      • Gasser Gasser

        [cont]

        In the year 2016

        
If God's a-coming, it will to radioactive to come here by then
        
Maybe He'll look around Himself and say


        "Guess its time for the judgement day"

        In the year 2017


        God is gonna shake His mighty head
        
He'll say "I'm pissed where man has been"


        Shit! tear this waste down, and start again

        In the year 2018

        
I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive
        
He's taken everything this old earth can give


        And he ain't put back nothing

        Now it's been only 7 highly radioactive years
        
Man has spent Quad trillion'$ and cried a billion tears

        
For what?, money, he always knew

        Now man's reign is through

        But through eternal night
        
The twinkling of starlight


        So very far away

        He'll pollute it too someday

        In the year 2019

        If man is……s~t~i~l~l a~l~~i~~~v~~~~~

        ~Gasser Classic~


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