Gundersen: M7.0 quake can cause Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 to collapse — New study warns fault nearby Daiichi plant ripped open on 3/11; 70% chance of big quake this year

Published: February 14th, 2012 at 8:55 am ET
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Title: Fukushima faces increased quake risk – study
Source: AFP
Date: Feb 14, 2012

[...]The picture points to a low-activity fault that was jolted furiously into life by the big quake. [...]

The seismic tomography also says that after March 11, the Iwaki fault suffered a dramatic change in the direction of stress from the overriding Okhotsk plate.

A shock change in horizontal thrust, helped by the weakening effect of the ascending fluids, are what made this previously untroublesome fault to rip open, they theorise. [...]

20 times more quakes in 6 months after 3/11 than in previous 9 years

From March 11 to October 27 last year, the carpet of sensors around Iwaki recorded an astonishing 24,108 shocks measuring at least 1.5 magnitude, 23 of them notching up a powerful 5.0 or more.

By comparison, from June 3 2002 to March 11 2011, there was only 1,215 such events.

Dapeng Zhao, a professor of geophysics at Tohoku University in Sendai, Japan

  • “There are a few active faults in the nuclear power plant area, and our results show the existence of similar structural anomalies under both the Iwaki and the Fukushima Daiichi areas”
  • “Given that a large earthquake occurred in Iwaki not long ago, we think it is possible for a similarly strong earthquake to happen in Fukushima”
  • “Much attention should be paid to (…) seismic safety in the near future” at the nuclear plant

The paper appears in Solid Earth, a peer-reviewed open-access journal published by the European Geosciences Union (EGU)

Read the report here


Title: Nuclear expert Arnold Gundersen with the first 2012 Fukushima update
Source: If You Love This Planet Radio with Dr. Helen Caldicott
Date: Feb. 11, 2012

At 4:55 in

My big concern still remains that if there’s a significant earthquake, significant means like M7.0 or M7.5, that that building [Spent Fuel Pool No. 4] can still collapse.

Now a prominent scientist just came out and said there is a 70% chance of an earthquake of that magnitude this year. and there’s a 98% chance of an earthquake of that magnitude in the next 3 years.

Listen to the broadcast here

UPDATE: Study warns of another nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi -- Likely to be directly disturbed by large quakes (Full Paper)

Published: February 14th, 2012 at 8:55 am ET
By

17 comments

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  2. Study warns of another nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi — Likely to be directly disturbed by large quakes (Full Paper) February 14, 2012
  3. 12:45p EST: M4.1 quake hits Fukushima — Strongest intensity registered in Futaba County, home of Daiichi plant (MAPS) January 12, 2012
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17 comments to Gundersen: M7.0 quake can cause Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 to collapse — New study warns fault nearby Daiichi plant ripped open on 3/11; 70% chance of big quake this year

  • patman

    No problem.

    Need another means to infer 'temperature' in these conditions rather than thermometer.

    Perhaps, pump a known velocity of inert gas into the pressure vessel and measure velocity on the outflow, thereby determining gas expansion while inside.

    This velocity measurement would infer temperatures by the expansion of the inert gas. Inert gas is subject to 'Charles's law' by operating a simple calculation of "V1T2=V2T1."

    A device constructed of a sealed tantalum probe tube with a smaller diameter internal tantalum tube suppling a velocity of inert gas. Measure differential of inlet and outlet through a 'curved tube coriolis flow meters' on the inlet side and another mass flow meter on the outlet side.

    An accurate temperature reading is calculated by "V1T2=V2T1" inferred through velocity change.

    By modulating the flow rates a system entropy loss diagram can be built. for this specific alternative temperature measuring system.

    Simple.

    So, why is everybody being so stupid?

    Am I the world's smartest man?

    If so, we are all in a lot of trouble.

    Looking for work, tired of freezing my petunias off to pay my mortgage. Any offers? Resume is flying, now just looking for a target. Pay someone to hack my email address, it's o.k.


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  • markww markww

    Wonder if Tepco and Govt going to sit on their ass*s again like in the past and say it will never happen


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  • jahdesm jahdesm

    temperature gauge is not broken and temperature no.2 rektor is over 300 degrees celsius and rapidly rising it´s gonna exploed when temperature is 600-700 degrees celcius.source :fukushima diary


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  • CaptD CaptD

    Notice that now even China is getting involved:
    …The alarm was sounded by a trio of seismologists in Japan and China [...]

    ++++
    The truth is that TEPCO is playing a delay or wait and see game that the Japanese People cannot afford! In the very least a steam event or a massive hydrovolca­nic explosion will make the entire complex a N☢ GO Zone, then what happens to all the spent fuel rods that are left in ALL 6 reactors?

    If I was in charge, I would start N☢W and:

    1. Move every remaining fuel rod (spent or otherwise) in the complex to off site locations far away from Fukushima ASAP. This will reduce the potential problems of radioactiv­e pollution!

    2. Start drilling core holes uphill from the holed reactors in an effort to reach the groundwate­r and then pump it out before it reaches the corium(s), in effect creating a "dry" buffer around the corium(s).

    3. Immediatel­y fill-in th breakwater and start constructi­on on a "coffer dam" that would then allow them to pump seawater away from the holed reactors that would prevent seawater from contacting the corium(s) in effect creating another "dry" buffer around the corium(s).

    4. Open the site to Internatio­nal experts to make better additional assessment­s!

    —> Waiting will only save TEPCO money, but not save Japan (or the World) from the risk of Global radioactiv­e pollution!


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  • CaptD CaptD

    To: Mr Kenzaburo Oe

    I too have been watching since 3/11 and Japans Trillion Dollar Eco-Disast­er has also affected many of us globally!

    I have considered myself a supporter of Japan and Japanese products for a very long time but 3/11 has fundamenta­lly changed my opinion of the Japanese Gov't !

    I never considered that the Japanese Gov't. would allow global radioactiv­e pollution to "be made in Japan" yet after 11 months it still continues, PLUS the ongoing radioactiv­e pollution continues to be covered up and or SPUN by TEPCO, with the Japanese Gov't.'s approval!

    What I now understand is that the Japanese culture is lacking something very basic, which is the ability to just say NO! By not being able to say NO, the Japanese people have no way to guide their Leaders or change their Countries Policy! Japan is doomed to additional suffering because Man cannot control Nature, despite what all nuclear engineers say…

    Please Respect Nature

    It's OK to just say N☢

    The World is watching


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    • aSpadeisaSpade aSpadeisaSpade

      You are right on the money! As I have suggested before on this site, the Japanese people CAN make a difference if they will simply say NO to their cultural passivity.

      If a grass roots movement could get started (like right now!) to hold "sick outs" or have Blue Flu epidemics which would shut down the economy (read that as "the all-important engine which gives the Japanese government its power and control"), then they would be heard, not only in Japan, but world-wide.

      People of Japan: You MUST take a small risk (compared to the certain extinction you are facing) and DO SOMETHING. It is clear that your evil government will let you all be sacrificed, and so your fate is in your own hands. Take action or goodbye Japan!


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  • Tumrgrwer Tumrgrwer

    I'm guessing the same applies to every country that utilizes nuclear power of any kind. We all have a problem with saying NO, not just Japan. I was thinking the Fuku wake-up call would have been heeded instead of ignored.

    NO MORE NUKES!

    Let us be kind, one to another, for we are each of us together in our pain!


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