Fukushima forecast shows Cesium-137 and Iodine-131 over Northwestern US on May 5 (VIDEOS)

Published: May 2nd, 2011 at 3:03 pm ET


Fukushima Potential Releases, I-131 & Cs-137 Total Column for May 3-May 6, 2011, Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), May 2, 2011:

“These products are highly uncertain based on limited information for the source terms. Please use with caution and understand that the values are likely to change once we obtain more information on the overall nature of the accident.” –NILU



See also: Official: Japanese gov’t withheld radiation forecasts to prevent causing panic (VIDEO)

Published: May 2nd, 2011 at 3:03 pm ET


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20 comments to Fukushima forecast shows Cesium-137 and Iodine-131 over Northwestern US on May 5 (VIDEOS)

  • Decker

    You forgot part of the quote of the disclaimer on NILU’s site:

    “The products should be considered informational and only indicate ‘worst case scenario’ releases. From what we’ve learned recently, it seems releases of this magnitude have not yet occurred. “

    • mothra

      I find these NILU forecasts very helpful for determining precipitation and precaution. They’ve born out in our local UC Berkeley and Bay Area EPA data to date. I appreciate the information “heads up” especially with the anemic nature of others I’ve charged with taxes and authority to disclose it. Three cheers for Norway!

      • Blue

        I’m not trying to scare you or anyone but the NILU forecasts are somewhat censored. Please watch the following which shows what the uncensored forecast looks like, please remember this was in March but what we are seeing are toned down versions so it seems.http://youtu.be/BnRMS71OpCY

        • Blue

          I know this looks like a lot but it is rather minimal. No worries.

          • mothra

            No, thank you. I use the non-public data in conjunction with weather advisories for some time. I did this because I believed NILU ATMOS was one of the few available sources that used nuclear test ban treaty monitor sources that are signatory government and agency only? CRIIRAD started a petition last week to have that taxpayer asset data released publically, but I assumed I already had it.

  • Black

    154 trillion becquerels a day must just be kinda bad case scenario.
    And that is what the Japanese are announcing publicly.
    They wouldn’t coverup facts, would they?… Oh wait

    • Deetu 3


    • Decker

      What I meant is that NILU doesn’t consider the 154 trillion becquerels a day from the beginning of April a worst case scenario. We’re months, maybe years or decades away from having the reactors under control, if we get lucky. Which means we’re going to be one earthquake, one tsunami, one miss from a sleep deprived nuclear samurai away from total disaster during all that time.

      • Anthony

        I completely agree. Statistically Japan has a high likelihood to bear a disaster anyways. Another tsunami rolling through would do the situation in wouldn’t it? Once they are unable to manage the cooling, then what? I feel like we are downstream in a direct path of poisoning. I hope to be wrong but believe if a disaster struck next week, and the plants REALLY got crazy, how can I resurrect my optimism as we’d get covered in North America watching it happen on TV?

  • HardLeft

    Good point, Decker– these are all forecasts, anyway, with lots and lots of variables.

    Having said that, I usually do see a bump in Gross Beta Count Rate at around the time these forecasts predict, at least here in Los Angeles. We were supposed to get higher concentrations over the weekend, and it does look the count rate is elevated now, like peaks over 150 and troughs at around 100 CPM.

    I wish we had better data, particularly for the heavy transuranics, but from Chernobyl we can safely guess that there will probably be hot spots. We’ll hear about some of them, others we won’t know about for 40 years.

  • shockwave

    I can’t believe what I have seen since 311. Not only the Japanese government, but also the US…They are all assh*les. They do nothing but lies and cover.

    Consider what they have done on GM food & fake reasoning globalwarming (this discredits the reputation of science greatly), I am wondering whether the economic crisis is really over.

    F*ck the politicians! F*ck the riches behind the governments! If they keep doing like this, the human race is doomed. Those who control this world are idiotic enough to believe there will be no backlash from the nature??? I am sure it’s not the ordinary people like me do the things, because we will be ignored and long gone before the day.

  • Mothra

    I was a little disconcerted by the videos the nuclear engineering lab at Berkeley posted. I.e., this one http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/

    The first one was pure propaganda. Do you think their data are valid? Or do you think the data valid but have any issues with their interpretations of results?

  • Poor Daddy

    This looks more like the “cover up, cover ass” forecasts from last month than the un-overlayed “real” forecasts. Trust is totally gone.

    • xdrfox

      Best just to know it is Falling all the time, some days heavier than others, it is there and that is all we need to understand !

  • Novamind

    All Intel considered I will stay indoors as much as possible 5-3, 5-4, and 5-5-11 the last date being the worst day for unwanted exposure. Here in the Northwest Oregon Area. I Prepared Yesterday in antisapation of more of Japans Invisable Ballon Bombs coming this way!

  • xdrfox

    Radiation Update- April 2011

    Many Many Many Links

  • xdrfox


    The Entirety of the Northern Hemisphere around the world is affected by fallout, as well as the Pacific Ocean.
    Most Serious: Japan, Pacific Ocean, and Pacific Rim States
    Most Contaminated food areas of North America (based on fallout wind spread patterns charted by European scientific research agencies) in order of likely intensity of contamination, starting with the most contaminated:

    Entire Pacific Coast (note that much of the produce in North America comes from this region, especially California)
    Northern U.S. States close to Canada, and Canadian areas close to the U.S. (including Toronto etc.)
    Eastern States
    Central States of the U.S., and Far Northern areas of Canada

  • motherpeace25

    thank you all for your diligence as the truth travels far and wide


  • The fallout forecasts are fictional, as the emissions are ASSUMED!!! Read the fine print on the websites. They also use selective isotopes. The forecasts relate to ZAMG institute that works for the nuclear lobby:

    Useful of the the “forecasts” is to guess the timing and pattern of atmospheric dispersion. Nothing replaces in-situ measurements, but EPA has just announced an end to monitoring, like the Canadian gov’t long time much earlier:

    A protracted genocide unfolds before the eyes of the global victims. What are we going to do about it?