Gov’t model shows West Coast of N. America to get highest level of Fukushima contamination until 2030s (VIDEO)

Published: November 26th, 2013 at 11:44 am ET
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China-Korea Cooperation on the Development of Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System of Radionuclides: In this study we are concerned with long-term oceanic-scale dispersion of Cs 137 released from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. [...] The information that helped us to determine the source term of radioactive materials for the numerical experiments was the concentrations of radioactive materials in the ocean reported by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). [...] using monitoring data from the web site of TEPCO near the northern and southern discharge channels of the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. [...] Assuming a total release of 9 PBq of 137 Cs from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP into the marine environment (only including liquid releases on the Pacific Ocean), the simulation is carried out up to 2041.

Top (L) Mar. 2015; Top (R) Mar. 2019; Bottom (L) Mar. 2021; Bottom (R) July 2031

(Note that the total ocean release used in the model is just 1/3 of the estimate by other researchers. It also does not take into account the daily release of 400 tons of radioactive water from the plant that’s likely been ongoing since soon after 3/11.)

Arirang News, Aug. 30, 2013: Most of the radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan is expected to follow a current and spread into the Pacific Ocean. This simulation, created by a team of Korean and Chinese researchers, shows the likely flow of radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan,. as carried by the Kuroshio current. The radioactive water will merge with the strong currents of the Kuroshio and flow east. It could reach U.S. and Canadian waters in four to five years. That’s because the current eventually begins to flow towards the western waters of North America. [...] [Some] have raised concerns,. saying that continuous inspections and monitoring are required, as the exact amount of radioactive water that has leaked into the ocean is unclear.

Watch the dispersion model here

Published: November 26th, 2013 at 11:44 am ET
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72 comments to Gov’t model shows West Coast of N. America to get highest level of Fukushima contamination until 2030s (VIDEO)

  • Grampybone Grampybone

    "Assuming a total release of 9 PBq of 137 Cs from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP into the marine environment (only including liquid releases on the Pacific Ocean), the simulation is carried out up to 2041." Does "only including liquid releases into the Pacific Ocean" mean that the data for "planned" dumping into the ocean is scheduled to have the simulated effect on the ocean? If this model was created with only known observed releases it is in no way a representation of the full magnitude of the event. There have been tanks dumping into the ground percolating isotopes into the water table. Steam releases and spent fuel pool leakage from water being poured in for damage control. Spent fuel pool status of units 1,2,3 must have water for cooling unless they have left the building entirely.


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    • Grampybone Grampybone

      Trying to understand why this published model has so many holes in it. No point in trying not to step on the toes of the nuclear industry. The cats out of the bag on that one I think.


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      • pattersonp

        I guess you are not versed in peer-reviewed journals and/or the methodologies for such studies. I was once an environmentalist who studied transport routes, pollutant loading of contaminants in the Great Lakes region in great detail. You are trying to model nature while knowing from the planning phase that you can not exact any sort of 100% reality scenario. They are 'models' as such because reality cannot be studied directly… They are the only tools we have in playing God.

        Take 'models' like this especially over the entire Pacific 5000+ miles with a grain of plutonium. Especially when its Korea-Chinese researchers with 0 collaboration or corroboration.

        "In this study we are concerned with long-term oceanic-scale dispersion of Cs 137 released from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. The circulation model uses POM covering the domain 75ºS-65ºN, 0º-360ºE with horizontal resolution, 0.5º×0.5º and 21 vertical sigma layers. The model topography is interpolated from the global 5′ by 5′ ETOPO5 dataset. The circulation model is driven by monthly climatological (COADS) wind stresses and heat fluxes. The initial temperature and salinity fields are set to the Levitus annually averaged temperature and salinity, and the initial velocities are set to zero."

        http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/normals_documentation_e.html << on the COADS measurement… They only use 30 years of data as sufficient… /facepalm


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        • pattersonp

          Reading more about this COADS measure… it happens in 30 year cycles as related to speciifc goverments providing such data. The last period was 2000.

          In other words they are using 30-60 year old dispersion models assuming they are somehow constant, knowing full-well they are not. " Normals are also used as a reference for seasonal monitoring of climate temperature and precipitation for basic public interest, and for monitoring drought or forest fires risk. Real-time values, such as daily temperature, are often compared to a location's "climate normal" to determine how unusual or how great the departure from "average" they are. "

          But they are certain its going to hit the west coast? Hog wash.


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          • We Not They Finally

            I know. Fish and even mammals are already dying, whole species of them, along the West Coast. But that's also "hog wash," we guess.

            Or maybe it's just a presumption that the West Coast of North America will just "be in the way" when the Kuroshio current keeps flowing in. Maybe that whole "hog wash" of the continent will magically disappear?

            You don't help, pattersonp. But beyond that, your ongoing lack of compassion for others positively glows through your commentaries. Can only presuppose that that it what "hog wash" looks like in moonlight. If there's a Moon, that is. Maybe it's just "hog wash."


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            • Keen

              WNTF I am not sure if I agree with pattersonp's "hog wash" point but I find the rest of the post very informative. Does not specific information add to perspective?


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              • CodeShutdown CodeShutdown

                Keen, pattersonp attempts to discredit the study because of insufficient data, at the same time telling Grampybone he doesnt know how peer review works. But this "error analysis" is just gibberish unless quantified. If you took the average speed and number of cars going from phoenix to LA over the last 30 years, even though its not accurate for one specific day, you could still predict that a lot of drivers are going to end up in LA. But there are other studies, and these are linked to actual test data, current buoys and comprehensive variables. And just today another headline; govt scientist detect fukushima plume off canada. So just what WAS that blather about his expertise reading peer reviewed papers?


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          • Cataclysmic Cataclysmic

            here is a pretty interesting dispersal model.. ala rubber ducky, just place the ducky at the start, and it will show you what happens.. to garbage adrift in the sea. just assume garbage is nuke material.. so, put ducky at Japan and see what happens..
            http://adrift.org.au/map?lat=14.9&lng=-102.7&center=-113.3


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        • Grampybone Grampybone

          "Especially when its Korea-Chinese researchers with 0 collaboration or corroboration." This seems to be a trend with some of these projections.

          Reality cannot be modeled 100% correctly I agree. What I am saying is that the models released are lacking from already known sciences. Bikini Bay is a projection model for Fukushima and can be used to understand dispersion in the ocean. Bio-physics can show a much better picture of the contamination.


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          • Time Is Short Time Is Short

            Then there are decades-old ocean current maps, but I guess everyone wants to ignore those.

            What a tremendous amount of bullshit for some very simple calculations.

            Of course, we don't have a financial stake in building new NPP's, do we?


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          • pattersonp

            well yes, each model is designed with specific variables… you can't just keep adding information or the model either collapses or becomes a different 'model'. each model has criteria driven by data specific to it.

            would be nice to keep adding as many variables as possible but that's not realistic and would poison the well for any conclusions/results found.

            Also, not sure how bio-physics tie-in would help you if we are dealing with more man-made radioisotopes than we have ever, ever produced arguably. Again more speculation which is leading to increased fear mongering.

            and you mean this by Bikini Bay: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crossroads ? The Bikini Atoll/Weapons test? They were 20 kiloton bombs… They were exploding 1000 kilton in alaska by the 60s… Much better examples if you wanted to study pollutant dispersion of large amounts of radioisotopes.


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    • Gradius

      This predict is a total FAIL and wrong.


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  • pkjn

    Fukushima nuclear disaster causes cancer and birth defects in US newborns – epidemiologist.
    Fukushima nuclear meltdown causes thyroid condition in California babies.
    26 November 2013 Voice of Russia
    After the disaster at Fukushima, little attention was paid to how the radiation leaks can affect the health of children who live in the US. The Radiation and Public Health Project research group speaks about the study that showed that kids born after 2010 have some 26% percent higher risks to have cancer and birth defects. But the US keep silent on the problem.
    American scientists believe that the Fukushima nuclear fallout has impacted the health of babies born in California around the time of the Japanese power plant disaster. An upcoming review has revealed an increase in the number of newborns with congenital hypothyroidism, a rare but serious condition normally affecting about one child in 2,000.
    http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_11_26/Fukushima-nuclear-disaster-causes-cancer-and-birth-defects-in-US-newborns-epidemiologist-1487/
    http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_11_25/Fukushima-nuclear-meltdown-causes-thyroid-condition-in-California-babies-9156/


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  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Pattersonp..all the studies you request have already been done after the initial word wide bomb blasts/tests and it was verified that this radiation contaminations poison is absorbed by all it touches/comes into contact with.

    Do you think they banned all above ground testing worldwide because it was good for you.

    You my friend are being hoodwinked by the very best and no we were all pretty healthy before this industry shit it's created poisons all over this planet! :(


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  • mesa777

    Guess I'll have to wait and scheduled my vacation to Hawaii now until after 2041…. ):


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  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    That would be very advisable but that may not be long enough.. :(


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  • lam335 lam335

    re: "Calculation shows that Cs 137 in surface waters of the Pacific Ocean will reach the US coast after 4-5 years"

    This model seems to project that the arrival of the plume will be much later than others. Haven't other scientists been saying that the ocean-borne plume will hit the North American west coast over the next few months (hitting Canada first and then working its way down to California a few months later). I thought the main part of the plume was expected to start hitting North America this coming spring.


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    • We Not They Finally

      An estimate of 4-5 years does seem ridiculously long at the current rate. But maybe by then, there will be too little marine life left to complain about it. Those "baffling, mysterious" deaths can then be blamed on something else.


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  • weeman

    To many variables to be of any scientific significance, base line only and that is bad enough to put it mildly.
    I think this is appropriate.
    My way, by Paul Anka.

    And now, the end is here
    And so I face the final curtain
    My friend, I'll say it clear
    I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
    I've lived a life that's full
    I traveled each and ev'ry highway
    And more, much more than this, I did it my way

    Regrets, I've had a few
    But then again, too few to mention
    I did what I had to do and saw it through without exemption
    I planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway
    And more, much more than this, I did it my way

    Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew
    When I bit off more than I could chew
    But through it all, when there was doubt
    I ate it up and spit it out
    I faced it all and I stood tall and did it my way

    I've loved, I've laughed and cried
    I've had my fill, my share of losing
    And now, as tears subside, I find it all so amusing
    To think I did all that
    And may I say, not in a shy way,
    "Oh, no, oh, no, not me, I did it my way"

    For what is a man, what has he got?
    If not himself, then he has naught
    To say the things he truly feels and not the words of one who kneels
    The record shows I took the blows and did it my way!

    Yes, it was my way


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  • bozzy54

    Outdated models without the full scope of information regarding the release at this point seems to be reaching. You all should buy a radioactivity detector. My Soeks-01M at this moment reads o.33 McSv/hr. There are 3 alerts today on the west coast of America and rising. Radnet show these elevations in the area as well as netc.com.


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  • sworldpeas sworldpeas

    "The information that helped us to determine the source term of radioactive materials for the numerical experiments was the concentrations of radioactive materials in the ocean reported by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)"

    The study was based on information as reported by TEPCO…

    So it's safe to say it is much worse than it actually appears.


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  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Yes Sol Man it is here and has been here for 2.5 years and its going to bioaccumulate and many people will eventually suffer varied diseases/cancers as they are exposed to certain radioactive isotopes that do not decay for many years.

    This has always been a "numbers game" from the get go and the game has been to lean on the size of the planet/dilution as the scape goat (get of out jail free card) for constant lack of liability by the Nuclear Industry. The fact that the Nuclear pollution/poison was invisible, odorless and tasteless guaranteed the lack of liability behaviors and lack of concern by the world citizens. All collected documentation to date worldwide concerning this radiation contamination poison is verified and its now understood that it is very bad where ever it travels and/or is found.

    The numbers game is based on the fact that there are few humans here at 7 billion and they (the entire worlds human population) all can live inside the state of Texas with 1000 sq. ft. each. There are too few humans on this planet and 70% of the world is covered by water. The sporadic nature of the fallout and poison is that no everyone will be hit/affected by it.

    Now simply the birth numbers of all biological life are starting to plummet worldwide and the reason is for this simple term and process of bioaccumulation of the not of this Earth hot radioactive Isotopes doing its damage worldwide.

    The more we add to the mix he worse things will get and that is how math…


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  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Not worried about any typos at this point in time, since the entire world is clueless and isn't worried about the tons of radiation contamination now flying around the globe.. :)


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  • harengus_acidophilus

    "Assuming a total release (…)"

    But not the daily intake -> useless crap!

    h.


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  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture

    Nature, not man, is telling us what we need to know.

    Dying animals, radiation in kelp, crops, water and milk show us where the radiation is going.

    Nuclear radiation is Contaminating the Northern Hemisphere.


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    • Bones Bones

      Since the moment I was born I was exposed to, a mother that went through TMI, born during Chernobyl, and now Fukushima. I've watched everything I love become contaminated in the most sinister of ways. I was told NOT to eat snow. Now, I know why!!!


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  • jec jec

    Note HIGH radiation alert levels in Western USA right now on http://www.netc.com. The radiation levels are spiking up, just about right for the first fuel removal from Fukushima last week around the 22nd..or earthquake shakeup about the same time. Anyone hear any warnings from the EPA or US government? So the higher level of contamination from the ocean plume..is just adding to the existing fallout mess from the fuel rods and the corium leaks into the atmosphere..


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    • Bones Bones

      Ex-SKF says they are removing spent rods right now. I don't know if it's true or not, but there are sources.


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    • JMR

      Thanks. I was going to post the same thing. I've been watching this for a week and have watched the levels increase day to day. Also the increases are spreading to the east, so something is obviously going on. How can we find any news about the Radcon 5 alerts?


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    • andagi andagi

      Dear jec,
      Many thanks to you and all. Folks follow this at ENENews!
      Aloha.


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    • Pete

      I noted this as well. I live in Seattle area, it was also densely foggy this morning and I didn't see any birds anywhere. The last time rad levels got this high was after those typhoons hit fuku, I think they threw particulate across the pacific then we had a couple weeks of dense fog. I later found that Tritium condenses into a fog. Hmm.

      On my bus ride to work this morning, I finally saw one large bird-of-prey-type bird flying south very quickly at a very low altitude and then a few minutes later saw a seagull doing the same thing, flying low and fast to the south.

      I saw crows in trees but not one flying, I personally think they are the smartest birds and do not fly when the rads are high. I also noticed this previously during the weeks of fog after the typhoons.


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  • razzz razzz

    The study seems a bit one dimensional. The Pacific has much surface area but is also very deep and with a plume traveling within it, that seems hard to confirm movement at various levels. Above ground testing sent most of the fallout airborne and doesn't jive with a continuous bleeding of radioactivity into a Pacific plume. The fact the plume is coalescent adds complications.

    As far as a cancerous thyroid goes, even today it is so rare (one in a million for kids) that any spike up should put everyone on alert for cause and it is not hard to guess why.


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  • Nick

    Something tells me it's going to get harder to find organic California/Oregon/Washington food.

    But don't worry, our govmint twill just up the allowable limits of radioactive goodies.

    As the contaminated water flows towards the West Coast, the mists and fogs will become radioactive as well. So too, the rain and snow, carrying the decaying atoms and their particles far inland.

    If the plankton die will our oxygen levels tail off?

    Can't wait to see how all this plays out.


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  • ftlt

    This will be interesting…

    Berdoo and West Covina will become the new Hollywood and Malibu as the rich race to flee to nasty little things at the beach…

    SF will be abandoned..

    Those San Juan isle multi 10s of millions private retreats will become hot zones…

    Where will all the poor rich people go now… It's just not fair…

    Real estate in the Rocky Mountains will soar for sure…

    Underground construction companies and air filtering system industrials will be hot on Wall Street …

    WOW!!! Invest now!!!


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  • Gradius

    "air filtering system". LOL nice try but you can NOT filter this stuff up! It would takes BILLIONS DOLLARS per DAY for a single house !


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  • alasanon

    I know quite a few Californians who live right ON the coast… They do not seem the least bit concerned?… That said, most of them tend to live a somewhat hedonistic, charmed life, so I doubt they worry too much, if it is not necessary… One said that he will likely be more careful about washing his local produce–? And this person has very young children.
    Hmmm… I tried to make some reasonable suggestions and provide educational assistance, but it was met with blissful dismissal. It's a shame that so many people living there are exceptionally talented and interesting. I don't think they will give up the trappings there in CA though.


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  • Igmz Igmz

    Hola!..my wife just saw something on Facebook about a big radioactive leak at palisades NPP..?!!! Anyone seen anything about this?


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  • Igmz Igmz

    Sorry y'all was last summer…my better half just happened to see her friends post and did not realize the date…


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  • Ibaraki2Bogota Ibaraki2Bogota

    How about the general trending movement of the plume. The worst of it seems to stay above South America… Can we speculate about that?


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    • razzz razzz

      The nuclear apologists claimed Daiichi fallout would disperse and be little more than a trace in the Pacific. That hasn't played out as hoped for with the continuous radioactive bleed from groundwater to the Pacific. The oceans, I don't know. Most of the currents loop back to Japan on a round trip above the equator. They don't hang out and the West Coast forever. How much the ocean mingles and travels south of the equator, I don't know.

      Southern Hemisphere, from what I read, will receive 5 times less fallout than the Northern Hemisphere over time as breaches occur in the atmosphere occasionally that allowed the North and South air masses to mix in certain areas.


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  • VanneV anne

    Saying that the West Coast will get more radiation is another red herring. A lot of food is grown along the West coast. And we are still getting all kinds of imports from Japan. The death rate may be higher for a while along the coasts of North America, but the death toll across the nation will also be higher and shortly will catch up to the coast death rates.

    It is like focusing on Fukushima Daiichi or SFP 4 and ignoring all the other death machines of nuclear stations and experimental nuclear reactors across Japan, all the damaged nuclear processing stations, and all the incineration of nuclear waste and dumping nuclear waste into the ocean from all over Japan.


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