Gov’t projections assumed ONE becquerel per hour was leaking from Fukushima — Actual rate reached at least 10 Quadrillion times higher

Published: December 29th, 2011 at 7:57 pm ET


Fears slowed SPEEDI info, The Daily Yomiuri, Dec. 30, 2011 [Emphasis Added]:

[…] The Education, Science, Culture, Sports and Technology Ministry oversees SPEEDI. The system estimates where radioactive material will spread based on data, including figures provided by the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) on the amount of radioactive material released. […]

That evening, it began projecting how much radioactive material would leak every hour, on the assumption that one becquerel was released per hour–a figure in line with Nuclear Safety Commission guidelines. […]

Panel: Wide communication gaps hampered response in Fukushima, AJW by The Asahi Shimbun, December 27, 2011:

[…] On March 11, officials of the science ministry, which has jurisdiction over SPEEDI, calculated the expected spread of radioactive materials on the assumption that such substances had spewed from the Fukushima No. 1 plant at a rate of 1 becquerel per hour. […]

Summary Report of RSMC Beijing on Fukushima Nuclear Accident Emergency Response, WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (United Nations), Oct. 27, 2011:

In the Assumption that Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant would leak continually at the rate of 1 Becquerel per hour (Bq/h) in the future 3 (or 7) days […]

Assuming that Fukushima Nuclear Plant continuously released nuclear pollutants for 12 days from 25 March to 6 April and total release amount is 1 Bq […]

Total release amount is 1 Bq […]

View Microsoft Word .doc here

10,000,000,000,000,000 becquerels per hour vs. 1 becquerel per hour

Nikkei, April 12, 2011: “Haruki Madarame, chairman of the [Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan], which is a government panel, said it has estimated that the release of 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour continued for several hours.”

10,000 terabecquerels = 10 quadrillion becquerels per hour or 10,000,000,000,000,000 becquerels per hour

Published: December 29th, 2011 at 7:57 pm ET


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46 comments to Gov’t projections assumed ONE becquerel per hour was leaking from Fukushima — Actual rate reached at least 10 Quadrillion times higher

  • Kevin Kevin


    Twilight Zone.

    • HoTaters HoTaters

      Yeah, I’m speechless.

      • HoTaters HoTaters

        What does a quadrillion look like? How many zero’s is that?

        • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

          Quadrillion may mean either of the two numbers (see long and short scales for more detail):
          • 1,000,000,000,000,000 (one thousand million million; 1015; SI prefix peta-) – for all short scale countries; increasingly common meaning in English language usage
          • 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (one million million million million; 1024; SI prefix: yotta-) – for all long scale countries; increasingly rare meaning in English language usage

          • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

            10 to the 15th power, 10 to the 24th power.

          • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

            “The long and short scales are two of several different large-number naming systems used throughout the world for integer powers of ten. Many countries, including most in continental Europe, use the long scale whereas most English-speaking countries use the short scale. In all such countries, the number names are translated into the local language, but retain a name similarity due to shared etymology. Some languages, particularly in East Asia and South Asia, have large number naming systems that are different from the long and short scales.[1][2]

            “Long scale is the English translation of the French term échelle longue. It refers to a system of large-number names in which every new term greater than million is 1,000,000 times the previous term: billion means a million millions (1012), trillion means a million billions (1018), and so on.[1][2]

            “Short scale is the English translation of the French term échelle courte. It refers to a system of large-number names in which every new term greater than million is 1,000 times the previous term: billion means a thousand millions (109), trillion means a thousand billions (1012), and so on.[1][2]

            “For integers less than a thousand million (< 109), the two scales are identical. At and above a thousand million (≥ 109), the two scales diverge by using the same words for different number values. These "false friends" can be a source of misunderstanding….”

            • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

              1012 didn’t quote the right way: 10 to the 12th power
              1018 was supposed to be 10 to the 18th power
              109 was supposed to read 10 to the 9th power.

              • Bobby1

                You could type 10^12, or better yet, use scientific notation, 1E12.

                • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

                  Thanks, I did just take Physics with Calculus a year and a half ago, so I could have done it as you say. Originally I just cut and pasted and didn’t check how it pasted onto this blog.

                  • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

                    I was really shocked when I found out about the long scale. I’m sure the article didn’t specify which was being used.

  • Whoopie Whoopie


    ATOMS MADE THE 1st Urban Dictionary of (us)
    Japan Irregulars of HP!
    Japanese Irregulars 2 thumbs up
    Those volunteers that have been blogging daily since the March 11, 2011 Trillion Dollar Eco-Disaster in Japan; posting up to date information from sources World Wide, because MSM will not!

  • James2

    Let’s see – miss the calculation by 10 quadrillion times – YOU FAIL!!!

  • James2

    And if Japan got 10 quadrillion times more radiation that they admitted,

    Then the other countries around the world did too. I’m going to buy a little more booze for the new year’s bash….

  • dharmasyd dharmasyd

    Make mine either a single malt scotch-in-the-dumps or a broody mary.

  • someone

    LOL, probably even one banana has more radiation leakage.

  • ion jean ion jean

    Whatever the release, 1 Bq should cover it…now let’s get at least 60km away (Japanese gov’t)

    Ha! That’s about the amount the guy in the urinal next to you is pissing out right now after his cancer “treatment”

  • arclight arclight

    if you stare at it for long enough it moves like a snake.. most disconcerting


    im sure one just winked at me!!

  • Grampybone Grampybone

    1Bq/hr projection is another way of saying, “we don’t want to state what we just did to the ocean.” The nuclear power plant at Vermont Yankee leaks more than 1Bq/hr and it was functioning properly. Fukushima blew up in a fission event the magnitude of which this planet has never seen. Jtektons toilet has more radiation emitting from it than TEPCO’s predictions post nuclear blast.

    • ion jean ion jean

      LOL GB, well on sadder notes, TEPCO and the IAEA NRC Entergy Areva etc. chaingang can’t hide the dead seals and walruses the way they can numbercrunch and excrete data…

      The Proof floats on the top surface of the ocean…100 ft. Of strontium and cesium jacuzzi for the sea mammals,

      Pits of hell and eternal suffering for those COWARDS who are recently spinning the disaster into “operator error”

    • arclight arclight

      Jtektons toilet has more radiation emitting from it than TEPCO’s predictions post nuclear blast.

      we got an irish toilet reading of 0.90 microsieverts/hr

      you could probaly fry an egg on that mother¬¬ !!

      no-ones thried that yet!!
      its on the list of things to do !
      🙂 lol

  • kx kx

    1 BQ per hour is what I farted per hour before fukushima

  • aigeezer aigeezer

    “The Education, Science, Culture, Sports and Technology Ministry”

    Professionals at work (NOT).

    Where’s the manual for nuclear meltthroughs? Is it under Sports? No?… the Technology guy is away today – ask the Education guy to look for it. It’s gotta be here somewhere.

    • or-well

      A Ministry with five (!) responsibilities under trusted lieutenants makes for “on message” communication and co-ordinated control however.
      (might give Harper ideas…)

    • ion jean ion jean

      Their SPEEDI system refers to how fast they can get alerts out to the public…it always estimates ONE becquerel so its calculations can work at lightning speed to protect the heallth of our citizens whom we care for so deeply. M’kay?

      • HoTaters HoTaters

        Or — “One Bq per hour, let’s see, that simplifies calculations. When we’re faced with those uncomfortable press conferences we won’t have to think too hard or do any difficult calculation when we decide what lies du jour, avec nombres, we’d like to tell today ….”

  • Are you kidding me? This has to be some kind of baloney… there isn’t a detector anywhere that could be expected to measure 1 disintegration per HOUR in (what I guess would be) a cubic meter of air. You’d get more than that from bomb leftovers from the ’50s. Or ambient radon. This is absurd, I guarantee government “guidelines” allow quite a lot higher than that in normal operations.

    • James2

      It’s not some kind of baloney. It’s a loaf of baloney stuffed right in an uncomfortable location.

      JoyB I read about your background.

      I’d like to get your take on whether this level of radiation release will have a serious health effect on all of us, or will it just be a few more of us get cancer, or is life on earth kaput?

  • I have a fancy B-Bq banana bread, quality made, in the frig if anyone wants to try a piece.

    Junk science is as Junk science does…

    Maybe they figured no one would notice, because radiation is all invisible.

    So who would notice if it was 1 Bq or 1 Quadrillion Bq per hour?

    Now we get to see who else is involved in this faux science experiment.

    Which other nuclear experts used the SPEEDI data for reporting the total amount of radiation released?

    • arclight arclight

      TRY NILU !! they had it mapped out with the lower figures initially given!
      then when it looked liked the figures might be heading higher than first reported nilu cancelled all future projections because the original figures they had were too high! so after twenty years of norwegian tax payers money… NILU closed the door on freedom of information.. the database is running behind a password protected server and goes to the highest bidder! viva capitalism!!

      thier is a list of vendors uk universities etc on the NILU site and it has an english language option..

      they left radnet system continue though but i suspect the accuracy/software allowances!!

  • 10,000,000,000,000,000? I can see the PR department throwing a fit and saying it must be a mistake.

    I think what happened is that the agency involved, passed it around from one desk to another, telling each person to ‘fix’ it and make it right… So each ‘expert’ took a zero off and passed it around, since a zero really does not matter in the grand scheme of things.

    After it got around sixteen desks in 16 departments, voila, the ten quadrillion was down to 1… problem solved, everything fixed.

    Everyone is happy. Pass it on to public relations and let them report it.

    • Toadmac

      LOL, I was thinking the exact same thing! Chinese whispers anyone? Someone got the call and thought they herd it wrong and so on. Must have gone global to get to 1 😉

  • arclight arclight

    China conducts second radiation monitor in Pacific OceanBy Yu Jianbin (People’s Daily Overseas Edition)17:19, December 29, 2011 Edited and translated by People’s Daily Online

    “A marine monitoring team dispatched by China’s State Oceanic Administration accomplished the mission of monitoring radiation in the western Pacific Ocean for the second time, and returned to Xiamen on Dec. 27 aboard the Xiangyanghong 09 scientific exploration ship.

    The monitoring team sailed about 6,100 nautical miles in 30 days, and monitored radiation in the air over and water in the western Pacific Ocean as well as radiation-sensitive sea creatures, chemistry and dynamic environments.”

    “This is the second time that China has monitored radiation in international waters in the western Pacific Ocean.”

  • arclight arclight

    small reference to plutonium isotopes here by babel china

    “The Japanese Fudao nuclear power station accident dealt with processing still to wait for further closely pays attention. The Japanese Tokyo Electricity company on 28th in the evening announced that examined the radionuclide plutonium in the Fudao first nuclear power station region’s 5 place gathering soil sample. This company believed that this has the possibility to come from the nuclear power station to have accident’s reactor. According to the Japanese current event society on 29th reported that exterior these soil sample gathering on the 21st of the month and on 22nd, the Tokyo Electricity company entrusted the Specialized agency to carry on the examination, and examined micro plutonium – 238, plutonium – 239 and plutonium – 240. At present will examine the radioactive plutonium the density not to affect the human body health, but this company will strengthen to the nuclear power station region in and the peripheral environment monitor. Which unit reactor until now still wasn’t clear this was coming from divulging.”

    “becomes key point which the radiological defense pays attention. At present mainly examines the output not big radioactive plutonium around the Fudao nuclear power station, just like the Japanese parties concerned pointed out that reflected this nuclear catastrophe the situation gravity is not allow to neglect. But pressed the present condition radioactive plutonium not to be still impossible to proliferate to the surrounding countries and the area, but was worth further seriously paying attention. This Japanese Fudao nuclear catastrophe and emergency processing, already accumulated the very serious experience for various countries and the quite profound beneficial enlightenment.”

  • arclight arclight

    interesting snippet here

    “On August 29, ……….On the same day, MEP Vice Minister Li Ganjie met in Dalian Municipality, Liaoning Province in Northeast China with a delegation led by Yoshihiro Nakagome, Acting President of Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization. The two sides exchanged views on matters such as strengthening the bilateral cooperation on nuclear”

    chinese a bit slow releasing things sometimes.. this august report is NEW on the site!!

    cant get any results on the testing ships that have now returned.. suspect the chinese are holding that information over the head of the IAEA..

    wonder what concessions the chinese are going for?? hmmm?

  • Sickputer

    I am never surprised by the machinations of naked apes (country of origin being non-exclusive lest I be accused of xenophobia).

    25,000 years ago “modern” naked apes would burn the grasslands to kill large beasts of prey, never caring if they destroyed the ecosystem for millions of other creatures and plants.

    Things haven’t changed much… But now naked apes become destroyers of worlds. If they could travel to other planets they would sack and destroy them also.

  • fredlvie

    it reminds me the talk between a leading engineer and another worker in cernobyl…
    after the GAU happened,there was the question what moscow should be told relating the emitting radiation at the moment.
    the geigercounter couldn’t show more than 5 REM and so the leading engineer told him “so say that there are 5 REM emitting now”…

  • StPaulScout StPaulScout

    I bet most of you weren’t aware that a day in Japan has 10,000,000,000,000,000 hours in it.

  • Kevin Kevin

    What fascinates me about Fukushima is that over the last deceade since the time of 9/11 a large and relatively global movement has grown typically referred to as “conspiracy theorists” or “truhters.” This has involved a great many people who have worked to unearth details not commonly associated with the official versions of events on a wide array of topics, some even obscure. Oddly, virtually none of them have picked up the events of 3/11 with the rigour and tenacity we have seen with not only 9/11 but a host of other occurrences. Fukushima, undboutedly, presents great fodder for this community. An occurrence with global implications and a seemingly unending, highly questionable retelling of events. Its not that these people have shied away from opposing powerful forces in our midst or steered their attention away from occassions with deadly and horrifying impacts. In the abscense of the scrutiny typically applied as a result of this community’s attention to this issue the opportunity arises for people like Mr Gunderson to fill the void and indeed he has. In fact he has become the go to guy for many of the truther crowd who dare skim the surface of this issue. This has allowed Arnie to in fact fulfill the role of a gate keeper and when we see videos like this one it becomes apparent that regardless of Mr Gunderson’s intention he has indeed slipped into this role, if even by default. Which ultimately results in the further burying of details and issues consistently referred to on these pages and the impact is such that the proper scrutiny required to bring up the profile necessary in order to properly discern them generally does not arise.