Study: Daily release from Fukushima of 100+ Quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 early on in crisis “seems reasonable” — Chernobyl total release was ~70 Quadrillion Bq of cs-137

Published: February 19th, 2014 at 11:38 am ET


Comparison between modelling and measurement of marine dispersion, environmental half-time and 137Cs inventories after the Fukushima Daiichi accident (pdf), January 2014: The 137Cs total atmospheric source term varies […] (Schöppner et al. 2012) implies a much higher activity (1,000 – 10,000 PBq*) in the total inventory of radionuclides released. […]

*PBq = petabecquerel = quadrillion becquerels

Michael Schöppner, University of Roma Tre, Doctoral School of Mathematics and Physics (pdf), 2012: […] using the Fukushima nuclear accident as an example it is demonstrated that it is possible to reconstruct a source term of known location. […] This is done exemplary on the basis of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. […] Due to the radioactive and unstable environment on-site of the NPP no reliable assessment of the emissions could have been done. […] Fukushima source term can be approximated by usage of ATM [atmospheric transport modelling]. […] although the reconstructed source suggests higher emissions than presented in other publications, the derived time dependent characteristics are in reasonable agreement. […] the comparison shows similar features in the source terms from various isotopes and stations. […] the problem of source term reconstruction has been reduced to a system of linear equations.

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Michael Schöppner, et al., December 2012 (emphasis added):  […] the real source-term at the FD-NPP emitted fewer particles in the case of 137Cs than assumed in the worst case scenario. Based on these results a source term of 10^17 – 10^18 Bq/day [100 PBq/day – 1,000 PBq/day] seems reasonable. For 131I, however, these first results suggest a source term not too different from the worst case scenario of 10^19 Bq/day [10,000 PBq/day]. […] The fact that the two remote stations, RN79 [Hawaii] and RN70 [Sacramento, CA], suggest a lower source term than the worst case estimation, where the closest station, RN38 [Takasaki, Japan], does not [… This may indicate] unaccounted regional meteorological conditions. […] The presented simulations with improved settings, i.e. dry and wet deposition, resulted in a better estimation of the source-term than previously reported (Plastino et al., 2011). The scenario assuming a worst case situation suggests generally higher source-terms, which are in reasonable agreement with the reported values (IAEA, 2011). For 137Cs emissions of 10^17 – 10^18 Bq/day [100 PBq/day – 1,000 PBq/day] seem to be reasonable, while for 131I even continuous emissions of 10^19 Bq/day [10,000 PBq/day] could be possible.

The authors highly acknowledge the support by the National Scientific Committee Technology of INFN for the ERMES project, and the European Commission under the FP7 programme for the EUMEDGRID project (Grant RI-246589). […] PPP acknowledges a support provided by the EU Research and Development Operational Programme funded by the ERDF

>> Free access to the complete study is now available here

Nuclear Energy Agency: 2002 Update of Chernobyl: Ten Years On — “The total 137Cs release was estimated to be 70 petabecquerels (PBq)”

See also: [intlink id=”fukushima-worst-nuclear-disaster-history-reveals-study-one-day-releases-japan-plant-100-quadrillion” type=”post”]{{empty}}[/intlink]

Published: February 19th, 2014 at 11:38 am ET


Related Posts

  1. EU-funded Research: Fukushima atmospheric release of 210 quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 used as upper bound in simulation — Chernobyl estimated at 70 to 85 quadrillion September 23, 2013
  2. Russian Study: Fukushima released 100 quadrillion becquerels of cesium into atmosphere… In just ONE day — About equal to Chernobyl’s total release August 29, 2013
  3. New Journal Article: Fukushima may have already released 90 quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 — Much more than Chernobyl’s 70 quadrillion becquerels January 8, 2014
  4. Japan Gov’t-funded Study: Fukushima has released up to 120 Quadrillion becquerels of radioactive cesium into North Pacific Ocean — Does not include amounts that fell on land — Exceeds Chernobyl total, which accounts for releases deposited on land AND ocean (MAP) June 30, 2014
  5. Nuclear Engineer: Estimated 276 quadrillion Bq of Cs-137 entered Fukushima basements — Triple Chernobyl total release — A portion “has already made its way to aquifer, whence it can easily flow into sea” August 26, 2013

68 comments to Study: Daily release from Fukushima of 100+ Quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 early on in crisis “seems reasonable” — Chernobyl total release was ~70 Quadrillion Bq of cs-137

  • dosdos dosdos

    The total release figures from European models I've seen back in 2011 are in the 10 to 20 exabecquerel range (~1.7×10*19), which is considerably larger than Chernobyl (1.4×10*18). If what is stated here is true, we're talking 250 exabecquerels range or higher, which is over ten times more.

  • bf9 bf9

    Goodbye Earth, it was good while it lasted! Nothing can (or rather will be done to) fix this…unless many hundreds of billions are spent. This is basically telling me that everyone on Earth is more or less the walking dead.

    • ToBeExpected ToBeExpected

      Nah….not everyone … the One who makes the earth spin… has got it all in hand..

      It just means that man has to recognize that he hasn't got the remit nor is he entitled to rule himself….it's an utter disaster and that can be seen in irrefutable evidence, right now, and in the past, as to the veracity of that statement.

      Take heart…

    • jump-ball jump-ball

      External threats may have forced humans into underground survival before, as surprisingly widespread worldwide ancient tunnel systems suggest. Seening themselves as the walking dead, they responded instead by going underground for extended periods of time, and not just hiding from war, but to avoid exposure to geological or other above ground natural threats.

      And maybe Fuku is the latest in a long series of threats that will again force human groups to go to underground survival.

      Groups like ENEnewsers for one…

    • atomicistheword

      What man has forgotten is that we need earth, but earth does not need us. Civilisations have come and gone. The clay planes and technology from the past artefacts bear witness of this. Equally technological civilisations to ours have come and gone. The PROUD and haughty would not understand this. There has been shedding of the locusts before.

  • or-well

    Here is Japan's
    team in nuke-dance
    taking the ice
    in the Triples Event…
    OH! They land the Daily Quad!
    With a score of 100
    they capture Gold!
    Next stop – Pyeongchang in 2018!
    Will they still have the title by then
    or will it have gone to the South Koreans?
    Nuke-dance is an international sport
    so you never know who'll come out on top
    in the "Who blew the worst?" game of roulette!
    Stay tuned! The games are not over yet!

  • 1076 Days! (PER DAY)

    …and quickly approaching the 3 YEAR anniversary.

    TIME is a factor in the dose received equation.

  • RonM RonM

    Does this mean we are all going to die?

    Like the movie someone posted here called "On the Beach",
    I watched it the other night and it's amazing that the dangers of radiation were known quite clearly back in the fifties yet here we are sitting on a planet with over 400 Nuke power plants, countless tons of radioactive waste, thousands upon thousands of nuke warheads, and the accumulated radioactivity of the past 60+ years since we entered the nuclear age.

    Actually it's pretty amazing that we are all still alive and if Fukushima isn't a final wake up call to end the nuclear industry and work as one throughout the world to safely contain and store the radioactivity generated so far for the expected thousands and thousands of years, then perhaps we have finally learned that humans will become extinct in the near future (1-200 years.)

    Has Fukushima already released the coup de gras ?

    If not there will be others and also another worse than ever event which will probably be it.

    On the other hand Fukushima may be bad enough to combine with all of the other mishandled and negligently disposed of industrial waste along with massive amounts of plastics and other detrimental household refuse that is now clogging landfills and polluting our oceans and waterways.

    Add in deforestation and a blatant disregard for nature, sustainable living and any coordinated effort to educate the worlds population on the importance of living less exorbitant lives and we are indeed an…

  • bluetick

    My only comment is

    HOLY FN SHIT!!!!!!

  • bluetick

    I think they win.. how can we fight

    1 dollar collapse
    2 fuky
    3 hanford-other us wastelands
    4 rivers ruined by idiots
    5 methane/global warming
    6 geoengineering
    7 GMO
    8 vaccines
    9 loud weird noises that can be heard for miles
    10 missing gold
    11. drought
    12 inflation
    13 DU ammunition
    14 fake SNOW
    This is one crazy world we are living in…what happened to the days when I worried about cool parts for my bike.. like z rims, and upgraded handle bars.

  • Homolumina Homolumina

    … and chemtrails and poisonous fertilizers, pesticides, the toxins released in landfills, fracking, plastic is fantastic especially around food products, HAARP, oil spills, burning forests, extinction of species, other war atrocities like genocide, toxic pharma waste and products, industrial waste going into the rivers and oceans, population explosion through the disempowering suppression and control of women and their bodies, gene manipulation, one world order, climate change… I am sure this is not all at all… YUCK – yes bluetick, where are we here ? The earth has been hijacked by brutes, by scum – where are the armies to defend her ??? Please notice that all that has been and is being done by males and their power structures. And here lies the key – our alpha males are not initiated and totally disconnected from life, powe-r, goal-, competition- and territorial driven, immature spermlings rule us all !!!

  • FallOut FallOut

    The Geology of Fukushima

    Good and bad news –

    In several of these cross-sections, an ancient fault, predating the later Miocene, is clearly visible under the nuclear site. Whereas the geological survey conducted prior to the construction of the plant does not reveal this fault (drilling did not go beyond a depth of 200 meters at the time), it is clear from the documents dated 2009 and 2010 that Tepco and the NSC have known about it for several years. The following cross-section shows this fault with even greater depth (- 1300 m):

    The bad news is that there exists a fault which appears to be active right under the Fukushima Daiichi plant itself: this allows, and will continue to allow, radioactive pollution of aquifers over a depth of several hundreds of meters, as it runs through the different "waterproof" strata (4). This also means that the radionuclides will naturally be carried towards the sea by this underground water stream flowing through the permeable layers of sandstone. Sandstone is indeed the ideal rock for aquifers, as it is both permeable and fractured, providing easy movement of water. And finally, there is the problem of the type of rock on which the plant was built being rather "soft", meaning that an earthquake can only destabilize the buildings.

    • FallOut FallOut

      So they can forget this !!!

      Nuclear Engineering International 18 February 2014

      TEPCO has released a new video outlining its plans for construction of an ice wall to enable trench clean-up at Fukushima Daiichi.

      • Socrates

        Better a fence above the cliff than an ambulance below.

        Nuclear does not have to pay for the damages it causes. This creates an incentive to take risks to maximize profits. Profits ate placed over safety.

        On Wall Street, the big banks were able to make subprime loans, take big fees, remove the liabilities from their balance sheets,.and bundle and sell tranches of toxic derivatives.

        BP took risks in the Gulf. Same problem of not having to have 100% legal exposure.

        Our system encourages mega-corporations to take massive risks without any real legal liability.


  • sworldpeas

    Triple your pleasure
    Three Three Three Meltdowns in one
    For minty fresh death.

  • Socrates

    OK, so we are looking at 1,000 x Chernobyl, so far, with lots more on the way.

    It is worse than even I thought. I saw triple core melts, fuel pools fires and explosions. As a child, I was taught to duck and cover. I needed to shelter in place. Would TPTB mention that?

    On 3-15-11, I managed to buy some kelp. Our government ordered physicians not to prescribe KI but FOIA documents reveal a worse case scenario. Which truth would be the official truth?

    I suppose that the officials we elect make a telephone call the "big bosses" upstairs for their marching orders. Those big bosses own GE and Westinghouse. Then the orders come down…. "Don't cause panic, we might loses business."

    How do you protect yourself against a Chernobyl per day? Build more reactors?

    With the earthquake being at fault scenario, this was clearly foreseeable because Japan has a seismic problem. Years of blaming the tsunami followed instead of mitigation of the disaster. But tsunamis are caused by earthquakes…. Oh, well, all that matters is that one is rich compared to others. Even if we all die, the point is that they were richer when we were all alive. Their happiness is graded on the curve. No matter what happens to the entire species, they were richer.

    • FallOut FallOut

      It is really bad.

      Every projection was wrong footed. What would those global plume projections look like before they were all stopped if they had this data. As you can see in my post above, this core washout is dropping through a fault that has ruptured the sandstone.

      And nobody has a true grasp of the amount going into the ocean. These fault just allow more and more contamination gateways into the ocean.

      • Socrates

        Whistleblowers were punished. Yakuza controls a large segment of society in Japan. The US has a different name for the criminal cabal who rips us off. Same business model in the final analysis.

        Soils engineers and geologists were silenced. The engineers who worked on designing the Mark I were ignored. How can this be called "an accident?" If I have no brakes on my car, my headlights are burned out, I have been drinking, I'm texting on my cellphone while driving, and I run over a family in a crosswalk at night while I am speeding. Is that an accident?

        Conscious disregard of safety is no accident; it is on purpose as a business decision. Regulators are a joke. They pay footsie with the regulated industry. I have a relative in the EPA. He warns of a visit and passes his time socializing with the guys. That's how you get along. Only full legal liability with the specter of punitive damages and regulation would deter this behavior.

        We learned in the Exxon-Valez case that SCOTUS favored business. So did the business community. Money buys immunity. Citizens United was the end of the road for consumers and many others concerned about civil rights, peace, the environment… and many more.

    • Toadmac

      "Using the CTBT radionuclide data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides"

      It is my belief that fukushima daini also had major releases. I think there was at least 1 core melt down and reactor vessel breach at Daini so therefore the releases are still on going to this day!
      Can anyone here say there wasn't? Cold shutdown of all reactors at Daini was the official report yet evacuation and no fly zones remain in place to this day! Why?

  • FallOut FallOut

    Drive it like you stole it'

    • newsblackoutUSA newsblackoutUSA

      Fallout…what are you projecting from a scientific standpoint, in plain terms where are the most fuku'd places, and how much is spewing out in perpetuity?

  • Daisy207

    Why isn't everyone on the west coast insisting on having their homes and yards tested for radiation? At the very least have radiation badges in their homes that they can deliver to the local health department for testing – just to know presence or absence – not the identity of the source. The badge will fill no matter the emitting source if present- its just photographic film. How difficult could this be. If there are high readings over a three hour period – then insist on the expensive tests.

    • Socrates

      Good idea.

    • bo bo

      Perhaps they don't want to know because they don't want their property values to drop…and they think, out of ignorance, that 'not knowing' is a small price to pay?

      • newsblackoutUSA newsblackoutUSA

        I don't own the land I live on, but I still want to know; are there labs you can send soil and water?

      • Daisy207

        If they owe a butt load of money and the property prices drop – duhh let the investors in the mortgage backed securities take the loss – they depend in people (slaves) paying money for something of value – but there is no value – that's their bet – they lost – too bad – how sad.

    • Health depts?

      You mean like the one that said the high radiation levels on the beach in California were caused by plates?

      How much trust do you have in the government that is supposed to be protecting you?

      You are much better off with a high quality pancake tube type Geiger counter and keeping it on 24 hours a day, with an alarm set up on it, and testing everything yourself.

      Who found that radioactive beach?

      The health dept? Nope, a citizen with a Geiger counter.

  • weeman

    Seems to me unfixable?

  • rockyourworld

    maybe most of them already have a "for sale" sign out front

  • Let's look at this disaster in a way that the nuclear industry does not want anyone to, shall we?

    Event Peak Ocean Radiation Reading In Bq/m³

    2,400 Nuclear weapons testing peak – 100 Bq/m³
    Chernobyl caused a peak reading of – 1,000 Bq/m³
    Fukushima caused a peak reading of – 180,000,000 Bq/m³

    Chernobyl was around ten times worse than 2,400 nuclear bombs going off.
    Fukushima was around 180,000 times worse than 2,400 nuclear bombs going off.

    2014 – Fukushima Ocean Radiation Compared To Chernobyl and 2,400 Open Air Nuclear Bomb Tests; via @AGreenRoad