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The Guardian asks: How likely is a catastrophe at Fukushima’s No. 4 fuel pool? Plant near fault as large as one that caused M9.0 quake

Published: May 7th, 2012 at 6:49 pm ET
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The Fukushima nuclear plant’s slow recovery offers lessons to the US
The Guardian
Richard Schiffman
May 7, 2012

[...] nuclear experts say that their biggest concern involves Reactor 4, which sustained severe structural damage [...]

A report released in February by the Independent Investigation Commission on the nuclear accident called this pool “the weakest link” at Fukushima. Robert Alvarez, former senior policy adviser at the US department of energy said: “If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain it could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident.”

How likely is this? While the structure of Reactor 4 is stable for the moment, the Dai-ichi plant lies miles from a big earthquake fault – as large as the one that caused last year’s quake, but much closer to Fukushima. According to a study published in February (pdf) in the European Geosciences Union’s journal Solid Earth, that fault is now overdue for a quake.

Whether or not the critical pool at Reactor 4 would survive another major quake intact, Edwin Lyman, a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, told me in a phone interview that a failure of the jury-rigged inadequate piping installed after the disaster could knock the cooling system out of commission.

After visiting Fukushima on a fact finding mission recently, Senator Ron Wyden wrote to Japan’s ambassador to the US warning that, “loss of containment in any of these pools could result in an even greater release than the initial accident.” [...]

These risks have led two former Japanese diplomats on a crusade to avert what they see as a disaster waiting to happen. UN veteran Akio Matsumura and former Japanese ambassador to Switzerland Mitsuhei Murata attended a conference in Seoul at the end of March “to inform the participants from 54 nations of the potential global catastrophe of reactor unit 4.” They called on the international community to set up an independent assessment team of structural engineers and nuclear scientists to study conditions at Reactor 4 and recommend a course of action. [...]

Published: May 7th, 2012 at 6:49 pm ET
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40 comments

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  1. Tepco: Recent quake caused water level drop in tank next to Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 January 2, 2012
  2. Former Japan Ambassador Warns Gov’t Committee: “A global catastrophe like we have never before experienced” if No. 4 collapses — Common Spent Fuel Pool with 6,375 fuel rods in jeopardy — “Would affect us all for centuries” April 6, 2012
  3. Fukushima author: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 boiled after powerful New Year’s quake, says plant worker January 8, 2012
  4. Koide: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 “was caused to tilt” after the explosion, worried about great danger from pool falling down — NISA: “We confirmed it was not leaning, we think there is no problem with the building” (VIDEOS) May 8, 2012
  5. Japan Nuclear Expert: There are known to be broken fuel rod assemblies in Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 — Large amount of radioactive material has fallen to bottom — “Many years” to get fuel out (VIDEO) May 7, 2012
May 7th, 2012 | Category: Spent Fuel Pool No. 4
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40 comments to The Guardian asks: How likely is a catastrophe at Fukushima’s No. 4 fuel pool? Plant near fault as large as one that caused M9.0 quake

  • jackassrig
    May 7, 2012 at 7:00 pm

    We need less studies and more ACTION. This smacks of Phder's.


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  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture
    May 7, 2012 at 7:01 pm

    All countries should pull together and take care of SFP4, (((pronto))). Where's the balls and brains anymore? …like those who built the Golden Gate Bridge? …This needs to be taken care of. It'll take determination.


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    • Whoopie Whoopie
      May 7, 2012 at 7:05 pm

      I wonder if they know/think "nothing can be done". I just dont understand why the International community isn't screaming their heads off too!


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      • snowwy snowwy
        May 7, 2012 at 9:33 pm

        community as in the people?

        people have been taught well to not question the authorities too much and in the case of nuclear power, we have been belittled, smirked at, ridiculed and called alarmists as long as I can remember when standing face to face with an official speaker for nuclear power in the 80ies. we were told, that there is absolutely no chance that any atomic power station should ever explode… which obviously happened. I guess that the general notion of "we cannot do anything anyway" stifles a lot of people's interest in the subject and they rely on that those who built it, will deal with it.

        It is hard to even convince my friends to take a little bit of interest in the issue and at least read and understand the sparse info that comes through. They are too busy dealing with their own crisis, life, issues etc.

        I think we all here have been silently shouting about it, even if it was only within our circles of friends and on the internet… most people feel still unaffected due to the catastrophe being so far away in Japan….. most people have forgotten how to care or that we are literally all in the same boat, called planet earth.


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  • jackassrig
    May 7, 2012 at 7:18 pm

    This is not a time for intellectualism. This is a time for brut force and ignorance.


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    • HoTaters HoTaters
      May 7, 2012 at 8:58 pm

      Brute force and ignorance?


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      • snowwy snowwy
        May 7, 2012 at 9:44 pm

        action… roll sleeves up and begin to do something.

        All this talk about "it is now 20%" tougher" is a slap into the face of everyone affected. How can they claim it is 20% more stable now… 20% of what? 20% of being bombed to almost complete destruction? well great, if it it 20% more stable now than it was just after earthquake and tsunami then they might as well measure the stability of a sand castle and transform it into a nuclear power station or spent fuel pool.

        We need to see those cranes move, we need to see people working on it, we need cameras everywhere showing us what they are actually doing. After all, they caused the shit, it is time now that they are accountable. We need reliable, trust worthy, unbiased good news about improvements of safety and we need it quick … more more excuses, old and forced news, lied and deceit… just honesty, we have to live with it anyhow. TEPCO owes this to the people of Japan at least.


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  • Whoopie Whoopie
    May 7, 2012 at 7:27 pm

    #Fukushima: RT PLS!! Should Japan's nuclear reactors stay offline? http://soc.li/E6k4RPO
    SHUT THEM ALL DOWN!!
    NO MORE NUKES!
    NO MORE "NEW NUKES"!
    SAVE THE VULNERABLE PLANET DAMN IT!!


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    • Whoopie Whoopie
      May 7, 2012 at 7:30 pm

      Let's get these numbers UP UP UP!!
      Yes. 68.44% (501 votes)
      No. 28.55% (209 votes)
      I'm not sure. 3.01% (22 votes)
      I'm going to Tweet this over and over again.
      The shit asses I've seen on other blogs today has me PISSED OFF.
      They are doubling down – SO SHOULD WE.


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  • Ganxet Ganxet
    May 7, 2012 at 7:28 pm

    we have not learned anything from Txernobil, 800,000 people exposed to radiation, not to devastate entire Europe.
    miners in Siberia.
    liquidators.
    engineers.
    …


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  • arclight arclight
    May 7, 2012 at 7:32 pm

    "experts have new worries about the plant's recovery"

    bull£$%t new worries…

    "says that it will take another 40 years to fully decommission the reactors there,"

    bull£$"t 40 years

    "According to a study published in February (pdf) in the European Geosciences Union's journal Solid Earth, that fault is now overdue for a quake. "

    they need to read a report about the earthquakes in japan?? bull£$"t!!

    Japan earthquakes 2011 Visualization map (2012-01-01)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCM2DexwxkI

    no mention of the nuclear and tovic dumps that get repeatedly hit as well during this earthquake video… lots not being discussed….


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    • Whoopie Whoopie
      May 7, 2012 at 7:57 pm

      Bullshit is right arc. What the hell is wrong with these people? What is wrong with the world right now? We are STARING INTO THE ABYSS AND NO ONE IS PAYING ATTENTION OR ARE TOO SCARED TO? I DONT KNOW! WT HELL IS GOING ON….


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    • snowwy snowwy
      May 7, 2012 at 9:54 pm

      but they need to do more studies, find out how they coud quantify in percetages as to how safe it will be and sit down over dinner to discuss what their next step is…

      … is it me or are all major companies, factories and public buildings required to have a DISASTER PLAN?

      why do they not implement such a plan? oh yes, i forget, they do not exist in nuclear power because the responsible people are the politician's bed fellows…

      the "let them eat cake" attitude used to cost leaders their heads


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  • bigfatscaryman bigfatscaryman
    May 7, 2012 at 8:04 pm

    relax guys, we need a meeting to figure out when to have a meeting to discuss the meeting about the meeting to do something quick!


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    • Whoopie Whoopie
      May 7, 2012 at 8:15 pm

      SPOT ON COMMENT bigfats. Isn't that the way it works? We have commissioners upon commissioners upon chairmen upon chairmen upon presidents upon vice presidents upon vice VICE presidents. I see it in my own hometown!! Talk about bureaucracy! THE LIST IS ENDLESS only to end up THEY DO NOTHING at all! (but build those new schools 4 the children – OH YEAH! New schools with laid off teachers)
      ECONOMY IS IN THE TANK BUT I SEE NEW SCHOOLS EVERYWHERE!
      Sorry for my rant…but it surely DOES apply to everywhere in OUR areas huh?


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      • teamplayer
        May 7, 2012 at 8:31 pm

        Whoopie, Hi.
        TG from HP.
        Sorry this is OT.
        There is a pro-nuke site: japan probe dot com,
        that claims to be non-biased, but shills for the nuclear industry. They have given our friend "rooks" a very hard time and devoted a whole page to him and his family. I would love to see the whitstle blown on these shills. They have a comments section, but they won't let anyone post more than once, if it doesn't fit their agenda. I hope you can check it out.
        Grrrrr.


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        • Whoopie Whoopie
          May 7, 2012 at 8:45 pm

          I saw that this a.m. TG. They attacked OUR GOOD FRIEND ROOKS!! MUTHER FLACKERS!!!
          I will never forgive them for that EVER!!! YOu of all people know Rooks. He's never been outspoken EVER. And YET they basically RUINED HIS DRIVE!! They EVEN posted every god damn personal info about HIM!! HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN "OUR" HERO eh TG!?!? @ HP? Been with us at HP for over a year…and they tried to "ruin him". So glad you posted TG!! The good news: F311WD will take him "into their fold tomorrow…when he joins FB.
          I'M THRILLED YOU POSTED TG! DONT LEAVE US! YOU ARE INCREDIBLE AT HP … but we can use you here too!! join FB too! I LOVE YOU – ALWAYS HAVE! So glad you posted here!! Whoooheee!


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          • Whoopie Whoopie
            May 7, 2012 at 8:49 pm

            please! JOIN FB if you haven't. Fukushima 311 Watchdogs are on top of US ALL.
            THEY ARE CONJOINED AT THE HIP WITH ENENEWS.
            So we are all together.
            Enenews'ers join FB if you haven't and make those numbers GROW!


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    • snowwy snowwy
      May 7, 2012 at 9:55 pm

      not before the minutes of the preliminary meeting have not been discussed and ratified prior to the meeting


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  • enoughalready45 enoughalready45
    May 7, 2012 at 8:14 pm

    Gives new meaning to the phrase, "Death by committee."


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  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture
    May 7, 2012 at 8:14 pm

    We need someone like Red Adair.


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  • Whoopie Whoopie
    May 7, 2012 at 8:33 pm

    Did you know there is a NEW "Food New World Order"
    (like New World Order)?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC24bpTjOa8&feature=uploademail


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  • Whoopie Whoopie
    May 7, 2012 at 8:58 pm

    Fukushima SFP#4 Petition to Sign to HELP JAPAN's Nuclear Nightmare! (ple…: http://youtu.be/nas2587MA6Y via @youtube
    LOVELY MUSIC…BUT!!


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  • RJ Rodney
    May 7, 2012 at 9:06 pm

    One earthquake and two tremors just this morning.

    http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/

    Live cam

    http://lucaswhitefieldhixson.com/lucaswebcamwatch.html

    I'm in Hiroshima and I can't even think about me future anymore; buying a house, going to work, retiring here. Starting over in New Zealand seems like the best option.


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  • hbjon hbjon
    May 7, 2012 at 9:16 pm

    I have concluded that, what we are and will continue to witness as a result of last years earthquake on 3/11 is unprecedented. Meeting adjourned.


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  • snowwy snowwy
    May 7, 2012 at 9:57 pm

    talk is cheap, actions cost money, lives are worthless… easy


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  • nedlifromvermont
    May 7, 2012 at 10:21 pm

    come on over to my house and play American nuclear roulette …

    that's where the Nuclearist loads the gun (all six chambers), spins the chamber (for comic effect,) and then places the barrel of the gun against somebody else's temple (yours or mine or both, but mostly the babies … they are that sick) and pulls the trigger …. BANG you're dead.

    Sorry …. meant to.

    Nuclear Nit Wits. They weren't paying attention.

    Einstein said not to. Oppenheimer said not to. Ted Teller said only if they are built underground.

    Yet they did, for the the quick profit!! Unbelievable. Idiots. GE even marketed its BWR as built cheaply … no false advertising there. "We bring good things to life, and salt the planet with radioactive cesium to boot. Don't even ask us about the strontium and the plutonium, the americium and the tellurium ad infinitem …. You don't want to know. If we told you, we'd have to kill you! Oh right …. we already have. BANG you're dead. Next?"


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