Gundersen: “I’ve heard numbers as high as 2 million may die of cancer” because of Fukushima (VIDEO)

Published: June 27th, 2012 at 1:06 am ET
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Hadn’t seen this Fairewinds video before, h/t rumorecurioso for the upload.

Nuclear Power 101: Fairewinds Examines the Fundamental Advantages and Disadvantages of Splitting Atoms to Boil Water
Fairewinds Energy Education
July 23, 2011

Included in this presentation and PowerPoint is a discussion of how nuclear power plants work, how to cool a reactor during an accident, the effect of hot particles when inhaled, and concerns involving the long-term storage of nuclear waste. This presentation took place at the Nuclear Power Conference held at the University of Vermont July 23, 2011.

At 25:15 in

Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Associates: You’ll hear health physicists talk about… will talk about Fukushima being, I’ve heard numbers as low as maybe a couple hundred people may die of cancer and I’ve heard numbers as high as 2 million may die of cancer. And the difference is not really about that external cloud the plant released in the first few days, the difference is about what the people are inhaling and inbibing now that stays in the ecosystem for a long, long time.

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Published: June 27th, 2012 at 1:06 am ET
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27 comments

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27 comments to Gundersen: “I’ve heard numbers as high as 2 million may die of cancer” because of Fukushima (VIDEO)

  • norbu norbu

    Is this taking in to account all future releases?


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  • ML

    Can we get some realistic numbers of how many people will have heart attacks or heart arrhythmias due to cesium uptake in the heart?
    ICRP always tries to minimize and do the math tricks to minimize concern over risk of damage. Thanks for discussing the dilemma clearly, Arnie.
    Will we ever have honest numbers in counting deaths or morbidity due to radiation exposure?


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    • hill hermit

      To put it bluntly, no.

      Radiation exposure could only be difinitively tied to cause of death if your exposure was high enough to kill in a short period of time.

      You can give statistics that show the likely increase in cancers, heart disease ect but this is simply the chance of having those effects. Even then how many of those exposed to radiation will live long enough to actually develope those health issues? A percentage will obviously die from other factors like age, car/industrial accidents, obesity, pre existing conditions ect…

      Please remember statistics are simply reducing humans to numbers on a flow chart. I prefer to try and keep this simple.

      How many?
      Too many.


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      • hill hermit

        Oops forgot to add.

        In science you cannot ever be proven right only proven wrong.

        To ask for proof that radiation from fuku will kill x many people is ignoring how science works.

        You are only correct until someone comes along and shows you're not.


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  • Sickputer

    Only a single million in deaths for the highest estimate? Over how long a time frame? We have that estimate for Chernobyl already and Fukushima is way bigger and different variables.

    Arnie and Helen are preparing to evacuate their families from America if Fukushima throws too many hot turds. What kind of numbers will he project from the safety of South America? Much greater I assume if he thinks he won't survive 7,000 miles from Fukushima in America.

    I'm not jealous or condemning him in any way. If circumstances were different I would probably scoot on down south myself. But timing, money, and the desire to leave forsaking less fortunate family members must all coalesce.


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    • getoutwhileyoustillcan

      "and the desire to leave forsaking less fortunate family members must all coalesce."

      That's a tough one. But think of it this way. If you go now, you may have enough time to get established, and be able to help save a couple more people, if #4 springs a leak.


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  • Sickputer

    Typo… Late night follies… Of course I saw the TWO million figure in the original news release.


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  • VanneV anne

    May 28th, 2011
    “Fukushima Equals 3,000 Billion Lethal Doses
    “Dr Paolo Scampa, a widely know EU Physicist, single handedly popularized the easily understood Lethal Doses concept. “Lethal Doses” is a world wide, well understood idea that strips Physics bare and offers a brilliant, understandable explanation for all the physics gobbledygook Intelligence agencies and their respective governments use to disguise the brutal truths of the Fukushima Daiichi Disaster.

    “Three thousand billion (3,000,000,000,000) Lethal Doses of Radiation means there are 429 Lethal Doses chasing each and every one of us on the planet, to put it in a nutshell. This is up from about 70 Billion Lethal Doses March 23, 2011. It is getting worse everyday without any intervention by the US and the other nuclear powers….”
    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/05/28/fukushima-how-many-chernobyls-is-it/


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  • Heart of the Rose Heart of the Rose

    "I've heard"..from whom ???
    (end of rant)


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  • Arnie upped the ante from one mill to two. hmmmmmm

    [REMOVED. DUPLICATE POST. OFF-TOPIC.]


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    • getoutwhileyoustillcan

      "Arnie upped the ante from one mill to two. hmmmmmm"

      That's the first thing I noticed. I was wondering when the estimates would start increasing. Reminds me of the Gulf spill. I kept waiting for the official numbers to match what everyone already knew.


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  • bleep_hits_blades

    Actually, this is an unrealistically low estimate, and it is hard for me to believe that Arnie doesn't know that.


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  • PhilipUpNorth philipupnorth

    Bleep: +100%. There is too much plutonium in the biosphere now. But what credibility would Arnie have if he put excess deaths from Fuku at a more realistic number, like 1 billion? We need Arnie where he is, slowly educating the public.


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