Kyodo: Secret worst scenario was ‘reactor explosion’ at No. 1 and Spent Fuel Pool 4 drying up -Hosono

Published: January 6th, 2012 at 10:21 am ET
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Worst scenario during Fukushima crisis was reactor explosion: Hosono, Kyodo, Jan. 6, 2011 [Emphasis Added]:

The government predicted two weeks after the nuclear crisis erupted at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in March that the worst scenario would involve an explosion at the No. 1 reactor and the water inside the No. 4 unit’s spent fuel pool drying up, nuclear disaster minister Goshi Hosono said Friday.

That scenario, which would have resulted in a more extensive release of radioactive material, was not announced because it was ”quite difficult to foresee” at that time, Hosono said, noting the No. 1 reactor’s containment vessel was believed to already have been damaged by an explosion inside the building housing the reactor.

“It was only a scenario based on a hypothetic assumption… We refrained from announcing it, as there was a possibility of triggering unnecessary concerns among people,” said Hosono [...]

Hosono also said that he was making “preparations to act against any kind of possibility” and “there was nothing wrong” in what he did in dealing with the nuclear crisis. [...]

No mention of Reactor No. 3?

See also:

Japan Times: Alarming gov't report discussed 'Tokyo Exodus' and collapse of Spent Fuel Pool 4 as rods melted through concrete walls
Published: January 6th, 2012 at 10:21 am ET
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29 comments to Kyodo: Secret worst scenario was ‘reactor explosion’ at No. 1 and Spent Fuel Pool 4 drying up -Hosono

  • aigeezer aigeezer

    I can blame the nuke/government establishment for a lot of things, but I wouldn’t blame them for not announcing a worst-case model to the public. If they had done so, they would have been accused of fear-mongering.

    It is normal for three kinds of models to be proposed to government decision makers (worst case, best case, probable case), and the decision makers usually choose the probable case model.

    So before we jump to criticise this particular item. Consider…

    What (exactly) would you do if you found yourself in that situation? It’s a very tough place to be.

    I would criticize governments and the industry for letting themselves get to that point – for embracing a technology that inevitably would put them in their horrible dilemma sooner or later.

    SHUT THEM DOWN (Nukes that is. All of them)


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    • If I were a government decision-maker with strong suspicions of such a scenario, I’d have ordered evacuations out to 50 miles as the U.S. NRC/State Dept. [Op-Center, via Jaczko and the Ambassador to Japan] strongly ‘advised’ by issuing said evac advisory for American citizens.

      What I would NOT have done is leave hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in harm’s way in order to protect the corporate/mob a-holes known as TEPCO.


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      • vivvi

        and that is why you will never be permitted to be a government decision maker, joyB. :)


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      • aigeezer aigeezer

        JoyB, your post is about two counterfactuals (“if I were X”, and “What I would NOT have done”).

        As a reader, they interest but don’t help me. Counterfactuals have no substance – they are untestable opinions. “If I were king of the world…” goes nowhere.

        What remains is what people actually have done so far, by action or inaction.

        I for one HAVE “left hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians in harm’s way” (and guilty civilians, and non-civilians, and livestock, pets and wildlife – no ranking of priority intended). I have not rescued a single one. They are still there. I read and post on Enenews from time to time but otherwise generally go on with my life. This bothers me – I want to help solve the nuke problem.

        Let’s shut down the nukes. To that end, all I’ve thought to do so far is reduce my power demands, so I’m doing that (tiny) thing because it is completely within my capabilities – I don’t have to convince or wait for anyone else. If you find something worth doing, something you have actually done, please spread the word so that others can try it too. I don’t think this problem will be solved by a few people doing heroic deeds, but rather by a lot of people each doing small things that make a difference.

        Thanks!


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    • unspokenhermit

      Agreed with your comment with regards to the government’s announcement. It is government’s duty to make sure that people do not become traumatized during a disaster like this.

      I just stumbled upon this study detailing high altitude radioactive contamination from Fukushima. It uses TEPCO and MEXT emission data to develop dispersion models of the radiation. If the models are correct the concentrations of contamination at upper altitudes are orders of magnitude higher than the concentrations at near ground levels.

      http://www.datapoke.org/blog/8/study-modeling-fukushima-npp-radioactive-contamination-dispersion-utilizing-chino-m-et-al-source-terms/


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  • Pallas89juno Pallas89juno

    This Kyodo article is BS on so many levels. Just more distraction, dumbing down. “worst case scenario” my ass.


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  • excecutioner

    um, where exactly is reactor 3 now? It sure isn’t in the reactor building. MOX!
    Worst case scenario AND THEN SOME!!!


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  • To me, they got the worst-case scenario wrong. If you do a worst-case, well, you do a worst-case.

    Right now, the situation is way worse than the worst-case – proving they didn’t do it right in the first place, or are unable to face up to the truth of the matter.

    Remember, governments have no problem panicking the hell out of people with fairy tales like WMDs and Iran’s non-existent nuclear bomb, so the lets-not-panic-the-herd argument doesn’t work.

    What I would do in this situation is exactly what the Russians did during Chernobyl – tell the truth and get the people out. Too bad if everyone panics, just get them out. (Remember, people are not likely to panic, because they will either disbelieve the government or are too uninformed to know what is really going on).

    The British were honest with their people during WWII when the Luftwaffe was on its way across the Channel: get your asses into the shelter, panic or no panic.


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    • pure water

      “Remember, governments have no problem panicking the hell out of people with fairy tales like WMDs and Iran’s non-existent nuclear bomb, so the lets-not-panic-the-herd argument doesn’t work.”
      11 of September was on air all over the world!
      And here comes “no immediate threat”.


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      • Pallas89juno Pallas89juno

        Dear Pure: Excellent point that I have to remember when discussing that lame ass reaction to our discussions of reality about F1 or other topics. thank you.


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    • Spectrometising

      Pu239.. Now i won’t have to figure out some way of saying it. Goodnight all


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    • Pallas89juno Pallas89juno

      Dear Pu, I was reading posts backwards. thank you for your post about the British “panicking” people (emphasis mine) into shelters to avoid air raids of the Nazis. Thank you. That’s also excellent armament against lame apologetics of those resisting apprehending reality.


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    • Kevin Kevin

      Yes governments are exceptional at creating panic when required for their agenda. I dont know about you, but when governments do as Japan’s has done and deploy a many layered deception campaign, I panic.


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    • Actually, they might be a little more informed than I thought:

      http://www.westhawaiitoday.com/polls/do-you-trust-government-officials-testing-and-reporting-radiation-levels-our-food-and-water

      Survey Question:
      Do you trust government officials’ testing and reporting of radiation levels in our food and water?

      Yes. They are professionals and will report accurately.
      19% (81 votes)

      Sort of; I’m inclined to view their reports with a degree of skeptiscism.
      28% (120 votes)

      No. They will only tell us what they want. Government and the truth are always far apart.
      53% (228 votes)


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    • aigeezer aigeezer

      Hi Pu – I think this was allegedly their worst-case scenario from last March – in the fog of war, to give them the benefit of the doubt. Of course, they have a credibility problem and this may or may not have been their actual worst-case model. We may never know whether it was, and it certainly seems to have been wrong, as you point out.

      If we take them at their word though, it is even more frightening than if we reject their claim. If we believe them, then their best efforts were grossly inadequate (and one can reasonably extrapolate that this would be true for most or all nuclear plants, since they’re all under the same vigilant regulatory eyes).

      On another front: I agree that governments can and do panic people deliberately. I also believe that they probably did not want to cause this particular evacuation panic. The usual government induced panic is goal-directed (you cited good examples). They think they can use a panic of their choosing to move the herd in a direction of their choosing. The hypothetical evacuation panic would have been “out of control” from their perspective and not of their choosing. I actually think that admission on their part is even more damning because it reveals that they would have been completely unprepared for a major evacuation. I’m guessing that would extend to all nuke plants on the planet. Put another way, if we accept their excuse it’s all the more alarming than if we reject it!

      In general, we are so wary of everything they say that we reject it instinctively. Sometimes though the very things we are rejecting may be true and may also make the case against them even stronger. Perhaps that is a factor with the “worst case model” and “evacuation panic” issues.

      SHUT DOWN THE NUKES (he suggested politely).


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    • john lh john lh

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiCXb1Nhd1o

      Watch this documentary of Chenobely ,I can see man in Red Russia.They are hero and bravo man ,even dictators in Russian has a human heart.

      They Japanese gov. today is the same bastard as WW2.

      Is that The Japanese are cursed ,what the hell they are doing now, after 9+ months


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  • CB CB

    The worst case scenario on this headline did not include the true accurate worst case. Secret worst scenario was ‘reactor explosion’ Japan Government, Tepco, NRC, EPA, …….continued……..help me plz.


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  • steve from virginia

    Japgov morons, come up w/ scenario after the fact.

    Real worst case scenario is run-away core criticality, steam explosion, fire in spent fuel or collapsed reactor building, abandonment of site leading to evac of reactors 5 and 6 w/ more full meltdowns. Worse case leads to ‘reactor runaways’ where additional reactors are abandoned (crews run away) to blow up or melt down. It can get a lot worse before ‘worst case’ is reached.

    Real worst case is Japan abandoned, China and Korea irradiated along w/ rest of the world.

    A good first step would be to take Tepco managers and cut their heads off w/ samurai sword.


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  • Re SPF 4 Wall Street Journal “Setback in Reactor Fight” Mar 16 2011 p. A1, A10. Quote is from p. A10

    “But the situation at one of those-offline reactors, No. 4, became dire on Tuesday when the spent fuel heated up and generated hydrogen that led to a fire, according to government officials.

    “That fire was extinguished in a few hours…”


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  • Grampybone Grampybone

    Hosono did nothing wrong? Personally I would like to see him hung and quartered in the streets of Tokyo for his piss poor response to the worst nuclear disaster ever. This man committed high treason by saying the public was safe from radiation.


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  • I went through my records and here is everything I found stated in mainstream press about spent fuel pool #4 early in the disaster.

    http://majiasblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/on-spent-fuel-pool-4.html


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  • Kevin Kevin

    This video walks you through the studies of low dose radiation exposures and how it relates to Japans increase of “safe” dose exposure to 20 miliseiverts per hour.

    Its worth the view

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ywKv0dj3UuY

    My apologies if this has been posted previously as it was done on Dec 11.


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  • RichardPerry

    But if it went bad there would be no way of evacuating Tokyo in time, so this is playing with people's lives and their health. You could of easily killed many by your action of throwing the dice. He should be charged with endangerment of the public.


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