Lung cancers in Northern Japan will increase by 20-30% in 3-5 years as a result of Fukushima, according to estimate — Other cancers to follow

Published: September 6th, 2011 at 5:51 pm ET
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Arnold Gundersen with a Fukushima update, Helen Caldicott MD podcast, September 2, 2011:

At 31:15 in (Transcript Summary)

My estimate is that the lung cancers in Northern Japan will increase by 20-30% in 3-5 years as a result of Fukushima… that will be the first cancer, then the others

Download the audio program here.

Published: September 6th, 2011 at 5:51 pm ET
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24 comments to Lung cancers in Northern Japan will increase by 20-30% in 3-5 years as a result of Fukushima, according to estimate — Other cancers to follow

  • Tacomagroove
    September 6, 2011 at 6:08 am Log in to Reply
    http://www.ccnr.org/max_plute_aecb.html
    America wake up and smell the Plutonium…

    How much plutonium does it take
    to overdose a person?

    Foreword

    Plutonium is a highly toxic material. Attempts to deny or to obscure this fact are, we feel, irresponsible.

    Some spokespersons for AECL and for the Government of Canada have suggested that there is no danger involved in MOX transport worthy of anyone’s serious consideration.

    We feel compelled to point out that, although the probability of a severe accident that would release plutonium to the atmosphere is admittedly small, the potential health and environmental consequences of such an accident can be serious due to the extraordinary toxicity of plutonium when inhaled.

    It is for this reason alone that the United States of America has made it illegal to transport plutonium by air in US territory. Such a prohibition does not exist for any other radioactive material.

    Atomic Energy of Canada Limited has admitted, in documents submitted to Transport Canada, that in four out of eight categories of serious road transportation accidents, the MOX containers would be completely destroyed and a plume of plutonium dust would be spread downwind to a distance of about 80 kilometers.

    Transport Canada has stated — not once, but several times, in its response to public commentaries about AECL’s plans for MOX transport by road — that transporting MOX by air is much more dangerous than doing it by road because of the health dangers of inhaling plutonium dust following an accident.

    Industry and government spokespersons have insisted that120 grams of plutonium is too small an amount to raise legitimate health and environmental concerns. They have made the irrelevant observation that 120 grams of plutonium is about the size of two A-A batteries.

    Such remarks are manipulative in nature; they do not help people to weigh the risk. The important quantity is not the VOLUME or MASS of plutonium, but its TOXICITY. Based on data supplied by AECB (see letter above) we can address the toxicity question as follows:

    In principle, using AECB’s regulatory limits,
    how many ”civilians” can be overdosed
    by 100 grams of plutonium?

    0.1 micrograms can overdose One civilian
    0.1 grams can overdose One million civilians
    1 gram can overdose ten million civilians
    100 grams can overdose one billion civilians
    600 grams can overdose six billion civilians

    If there is a serious accident involving
    120 grams of plutonium (in the form of MOX),
    how many civilian overdoses could, in principle, result?

    if NONE of the plutonium is safely contained there is a potential for one billion two hundred million civilian overdoses.

    if 90 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    one hundred and twenty million civilian overdoses.

    if 99.9 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for one hundred and twenty thousand civilian overdoses.

    if 99.999 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    one thousand two hundred civilian overdoses.

    In principle, using AECB’s regulatory limits,
    how many ”atomic radiation workers” can be
    overdosed by 140 grams of plutonium?

    1.4 micrograms can overdose one atomic worker

    1.4 grams can overdose one million workers

    14 grams can overdose ten million workers

    140 grams can overdose one hundred million workers

    560 grams can overdose four hundred million workers

    If there is a serious accident involving
    600 grams of plutonium (in the form of MOX),
    how many worker overdoses could, in principle, result?

    if NONE of the plute is safely contained there is a potential for
    four hundred twenty-five million worker overdoses

    if 90 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    forty-two and a half million worker overdoses

    if 99.9 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    forty-two and a half thousand worker overdoses

    if 99.999 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    four hundred and twenty-five worker overdoses

    If there is a serious accident involving
    600 grams of plutonium (in the form of MOX),
    how many civilian overdoses could, in principle, result?

    if NONE of the plute is safely contained there is a potential for
    six billion civilian overdoses

    if 90 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    six hundred million civilian overdoses

    if 99.9 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    six hundred thousand civilian overdoses

    if 99.999 percent of it is safely contained there is a potential for
    six thousand civilian overdoses


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  • SteveMT

    Evenly dispersed plutonium from the explosion = plenty of overkill potential for everyone….as Tacoma lays-out above. This plutonium is deadly…the deadliest substance on this planet.


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  • spag

    Ok, we get it, you’ve made your circle jerk with Arnie Gundersen very clear since this site started, and especially since you explicitly posted his mentioning your site, but please, 6 articles quoting him in the one day?

    Please at least attempt to provide some kind of balanced viewpoint. The comments appearing here are bad enough without the main site content turning into a one trick pony.

    Been reading for months, really do appreciate enenews.com as a valuable source of information, however Gundersen has an obvious agenda, and I’d rather enenews didn’t become his personal mouthpiece. Try at least a little to stick to factual reporting, and not flooding us with the same opinions time and time again.


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    • SteveMT

      Yes, Gundersen has an agenda, but of this he is on the right side…the side of truth, which is our side also. No one else is saying anything, so following the truth seems like the right way to proceed. It’s not my website, but maybe you need to make your own. I comment on stories I like, an not when I don’t.


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    • Edward

      Many of us have an “obvious agenda”. We don’t want nuclear energy destroying our planet. Nuclear power can be very unsafe and vulnerable it is not worth the risks. It is our right to have an opinion, we all live on this planet.


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    • Mack Mack

      Arnie Gundersen is providing the balanced viewpoint.


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    • JonahW JonahW

      Admin briefly explained his methodology a couple months ago: if an article or interview has multiple new facts or facets of a story, Admin treats each new fact as a separate posting. While that can seem sensationalist, it also helps those of us who follow multiple sources, watching closely for the infrequent bits of new info, to quickly see what’s new.


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      • Of three versions of a post, at least one should have the title that will work best for reposting to your social media of choice or emailing to the fence-sitter that you know. It annoys me to wade through these, but I admit I find them useful.


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  • Each fuel rod contains 20% plutonium. There are 360 fuel pellets per rod. Estimated weight of pellets are 5 grams.

    There are 264 fuel rods per assembly…

    So.

    264 x 360 =95,040 (total fuel pellets per fuel assembly)

    95,040 x 5 grams = 475,200 grams of nuclear fuel…

    Divide 475,000 By 20% to find the quantity of plutonium…

    475,000g x 0.20 (20%) = 95,040 grams of plutonium… (per fuel assembly)…

    http://my.firedoglake.com/kirkmurphy/2011/03/14/nuke-engineer-fuel-rod-fire-at-stricken-reactor-would-be-like-chernobyl-on-steroids/

    We’d be lucky if we only had to worry about the spent fuel rods from a single holding pool. We’re not that lucky. The Fukushima Daiichi plant has seven pools for spent fuel rods. Six of these are (or were) located at the top of six reactor buildings. One “common pool” is at ground level in a separate building. Each “reactor top” pool holds 3450 fuel rod assemblies. The common pool holds 6291 fuel rod assemblies. [The common pool has windows on one wall which were almost certainly destroyed by the tsunami.] Each assembly holds two hundred sixty-three fuel rods. This means the Fukushima Daiichi plant may contain over 600,000 spent fuel rods.

    So top fuel pool holds 3450 assemblies, common fuel pool holds 6291 assemblies…

    Total: 9741 assemblies x 95,040g plutonium =

    total =925,784,640g plutonium (in reactor 3 alone)…

    now it gets fun…

    925,784,640g plutonium / 10% = 92,578,464g plutonium

    1.0g plutonium is equal to ten million Overdose’s…

    92,578,464g plutonium x 10 million Overdoses =’s

    Now if only 10% of the fuel in reactor 3 escaped…

    927,584,640,000,000 Overdoses Globally


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    • dpl dpl

      looks like even the cockroaches will not survive


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    • p.s. 1% is simply taking off 1, zero off the end…

      So if only 1% of reactor 3 was released…
      92,758,464,000,000 overdoses

      0.1% of fuel released would be
      9,275,846,400,000 overdoses…


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    • SteveMT

      Japan needs some of our FEMA coffins. We need more, too. We are short by about 6.5 billion. Oh, that’s right, I forgot that each FEMA coffin holds an average of three bodies.

      6.5 / 3 = 2.17 billion FEMA coffins needed.

      Grim calculation. If these calculations are correct, we will need to make a wormhole escape route and fast. To supply the necessary power however, we’ll need a fusion reactor. Never mind.


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  • Living with the aftermath of Japan’s tsunami nightmare
    Tue September 6, 2011 *VIDEO*
    http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/06/world/asia/japan-tsunami-suicides/


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  • Mack Mack

    Radioactive leaf tobacco found in Japan

    “Radioactive Leaf Tobacco, 217 Bq/Kg of Cesium — 30 Bq greater than after Chernobyl”

    Source:
    http://enformable.com/2011/09/radioactive-leaf-tobacco-217-bqkg-of-cesium/


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  • bmurr bmurr

    Why does enenews post multiple threads with different lines from the same podcast? it has me wondering of who ever is behind enenews is just testing our responses to different information? very odd… either that or they are running out of stuff to post.


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  • Mack Mack

    The research I read said lung cancer rates had stabilized in Japan, so it shouldn’t be difficult to detect when/if there’s a future statistical rise in lung cancer.


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  • pure water

    Do you really believe in statistics? After the disasters every country tend to hide the real numbers at least for several years.
    And how do they stabilize in a nation of smokers? The WHO is stating that tobacco smoke is responsible for the 1/3 of cancers worldwide. I do not believe this either after comparing the maps of longevity, cancer rates, and nuclear plants and tests. Radioactivity seems responsible for the most of cancers, for me, at least. Do native Americans suffer from cancer?


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