Gundersen: Death toll from Fukushima disaster to be 1,000 times IAEA estimate (AUDIO)

Published: March 28th, 2013 at 12:15 pm ET
By
Email Article Email Article
42 comments


Title: Hot Air
Source:  Fairewinds Energy Education
Date: March 28, 2013

At 12:30 in

Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Engineer: I think my leak rate, and the amount of cesium that is in that leak rate, match up a lot better with the exposures people in Japan really got.

The IAEA says 100 people are going to die from this. I think it’s going to be a thousand times higher than that.

The difference is in the assumptions. I think my assumptions are supported a lot more by the data in the field, than the IAEA’s hiding behind some old studies.

For more on the leak rate, see: "Game Changer": Fukushima cesium releases likely 20-30 times higher than revealed (AUDIO)

Full program available here

Published: March 28th, 2013 at 12:15 pm ET
By
Email Article Email Article
42 comments

Related Posts

  1. Nuclear Engineer on Radio: Unfortunately, the truth is there will be a large death toll from Fukushima — Damages to be seen “over the next century” — Disaster at plant is unprecedented in magnitude (AUDIO) September 3, 2013
  2. Death toll estimate from Chernobyl now around 1.5 Million -Expert (VIDEO) December 22, 2012
  3. Journalist: “Purple spots, thyroid anomaly, sudden death… Death rate 1.5 times!” — “Lots of symptoms with Fukushima kids” December 4, 2012
  4. Japan Times: “Alarming estimate of cancer fatalities… 1 million extra deaths” — Nobody mentions krypton and xenon that poured from Fukushima plant, says Gundersen — 2-3 times greater than Chernobyl September 15, 2012
  5. Reuters: Japan faces nuclear shutdown for 2nd time since Fukushima — Expert: They’re trying to protect their nation from diseases, death (AUDIO) January 24, 2013

42 comments to Gundersen: Death toll from Fukushima disaster to be 1,000 times IAEA estimate (AUDIO)

  • ftlt

    The IAEA bean-counter brain dead syndrome…. Most often observed in the news reporting up-ticks in real estate, GOP rape case observations and unreal unemployment figures


    Report comment

  • We Not They Finally

    Arnie's good, but didn't he leave off a few zeroes? By the way, we'd be totally shocked if "a hundred people" have not ALREADY died from this. We just don't hear about it.


    Report comment

    • Time Is Short Time Is Short

      Here's another view, from an upcoming book:

      "To put a serious accident in context, according to data from my forthcoming book 'Contesting the Future of Nuclear Power', if 10 million people were exposed to radiation from a complete nuclear meltdown (the containment structures fail completely, exposing the inner reactor core to air), about 100,000 would die from acute radiation sickness within six weeks. About 50,000 would experience acute breathlessness, and 240,000 would develop acute hypothyroidism. About 350,000 males would be temporarily sterile, 100,000 women would stop menstruating, and 100,000 children would be born with cognitive deficiencies. There would be thousands of spontaneous abortions and more than 300,000 later cancers."

      http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-dirt-on-nuclear-power


      Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    “…Note that the lethality of radioactive reactor cores goes up the first 250,000 years they are out of the reactor – not down….
    Fukushima Equals 3,000 Billion Lethal Doses
    “…Dr Paolo Scampa, a widely know EU Physicist, single handedly popularized the easily understood Lethal Doses concept. “Lethal Doses” is a world wide, well understood idea that strips Physics bare and offers a brilliant, understandable explanation for all the physics gobbledygook Intelligence agencies and their respective governments use to disguise the brutal truths of the Fukushima Daiichi Disaster.
    “Three thousand billion (3,000,000,000,000) Lethal Doses of Radiation means there are 429 Lethal Doses chasing each and every one of us on the planet, to put it in a nutshell. This is up from about 70 Billion Lethal Doses March 23, 2011. It is getting worse everyday without any intervention by the US and the other nuclear powers….”
    http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/05/28/fukushima-how-many-chernobyls-is-it/

    Chernobyl Deaths Top a Million Based on Real Evidence
    http://www.i-sis.org.uk/Chernobyl_Deaths_Top_a_Million.php

    “Chernobyl was much more contained than Fukushima” — “With Fukushima, there’s a much better distribution system, which is the ocean currents” (VIDEO)
    http://enenews.com/chernobyl-contained-fukushima-fukushima-better-distribution-system-ocean-currents-video


    Report comment

    • Time Is Short Time Is Short

      Every time I read about some corrupt government, or wild conspiracy theory that is probably true, or all the evil people doing great harm to millions with no accountability (see previous), I console myself with the fact that plutonium doesn't discriminate. Yes, we here all know what's coming, and we're preparing ourselves to deal with this horror as it creeps into our own lives, unwanted and uninvited, planning to help as long as we can, but there is a comfort that those that truly deserve what's coming will get it at the same rates we will.


      Report comment

      • PavewayIII PavewayIII

        Fukushima prefecture is like coastal Oregon. A few decent-sized cities, but mostly mountains, forests and little farms. Fukushima Daiichi and Daini were built to supply Tokyo with electricity, not Fukushima.

        The Japanese lawmakers only got a few heavy deposits by rain in Tokyo. They don't walk around the streets and sidewalks like the peons. They're important – even their elevators have HEPA filters.

        Sorry – radiation is STILL only for little people. Important people are exempt.


        Report comment

        • Time Is Short Time Is Short

          They have to drink water, they have to eat, and Tokyo is thoroughly saturated.

          And Japan is only the heaviest load in global dispersion. Even Patagonia won't be safe for long. The coastal sea life is dying there, too.

          It's over.


          Report comment

          • Anthony Anthony

            I agree with you here. Japan was slathered in radiation and Tokyo was certainly included. In Tokyo streets you find quantifiable hazardous waste and so you have to appreciate the level of contamination which arrived their by all manners including the air.


            Report comment

            • dka

              Is there a single example, in the past, in which the nuclear deposits were so concentrated that children have been forbitten to drink tap water because the iodine limit was exceeded?

              Tokyo, and other cities in Japan are the only case. Even when Chernobyl exploded, no cities ever got close to reach tap water iodine lethal level limitation.
              Of all known and studied nuclear accidents, only Fukushima delivered enough radionuclides to prevent water from being drinkable by childen. Far more than any other level of radionuclide concentrations that ever affected dense human habitats.
              Draw your conclusion on the potential health effects.


              Report comment

              • Time Is Short Time Is Short

                Having to add boron to the milk in Hawai'i also helps draw a conclusion on how far the rad spread can affect children. That's never been needed before.

                Of course, they're not doing it on the NA West Coast. We'll just let those kids die.


                Report comment

          • PavewayIII PavewayIII

            "…They have to drink water, they have to eat, and Tokyo is thoroughly saturated…"

            They don't drink commoner water
            They don't eat food from the local supermarket
            Tokyo is saturated in mostly-filterable particulates

            If you haven't noticed, the big companies and their important people are bailing out of Japan to less contaminated places.

            The fantasy of payback has never saved any little people, it only makes them feel good for a few minutes. Important people have the means to protect themselves, avoid contamination or just leave. Suggesting they are subject to the same economic realities that trap the average Tokyo working person is nonsense.


            Report comment

        • VanneV anne

          Japan is incinerating nuclear waste all over the country and dumping nuclear waste into the ocean. The ones who could afford to leave ran as fast as possible.


          Report comment

    • We Not They Finally

      Paolo Scampa (scientist quoted above) has said flatly, "The world has five years." That was a year ago. So I guess that now he would say, "The world has four years."


      Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Leuren Moret: 100,000 excess deaths in North America in 2011 from Fukushima
    http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/5834

    Fukushima Day 99: Infant Deaths Up 48% in Philadelphia USA Since Japan Meltdowns! Mutant Ear-Less Bunnies Now Showing Up in China!
    http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2011/06/21/fukushima-day-99-infant-deaths-up-48-in-philadelphia-usa-since-japan-meltdowns-mutant-ear-less-bunnies-now-showing-up-in-china/

    FUKUSHIMA KILLING BABIES IN PHILADELPHIA? – INFANT DEATHS UP 48% SIN
    Jun 17, 2011
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMV4p6RS1c8

    http://www.radiation.org/reading/pubs/HS42_1F.pdf

    Medical Journal Article: 14,000 U.S. Deaths Tied to Fukushima Reactor Disaster Fallout
    Dec. 19, 2011
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/medical-journal-article–14000-us-deaths-tied-to-fukushima-reactor-disaster-fallout-135859288.html


    Report comment

  • PavewayIII PavewayIII

    Louisiana Senator Landrieu: TEPCO is WAY more important that you logs. Stop whining about radiation – the IAEA says it's safe. Those Japanese with cancer must be faking it.

    Now start building TEPCO's LNG facility for them so they can restart the reactors in Japan. I ORDER you to build it. I spent a lot of time to let them bypass those worthless free trade agreements to get MY LNG plant going.

    Landrieu supports TEPCO's right to poison U.S. sailors with radiation if they're doing it to protect their crimes.

    She could care less about TEPCO's gross violation of the human rights of Japanese citizens. "I got $500,000 in campaign contributions from the energy industry – time to scratch THEIR back. Useless Louisiana taxpayers gave me nothing and I've already paid them back in kind"

    http://www.landrieu.senate.gov/?p=press_releases&q=lng&pid=Select+a+Priority&month=&year=&district=&kwSearchBtn=Search


    Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Excess mortality for selected US cities in 2012.
    Posted on July 7, 2012
    The midpoint of the year 2012 has arrived. I looked at mortality statistics for this year from the the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), which is published by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).
    “The previous report I made, for 2011, can be found here….”

    http://optimalprediction.com/wp/excess-mortality-for-selected-us-cities-in-2012/


    Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Fukushima AIDS, part 1.
    February 26, 2013
    Chernobyl AIDS & Fukushima AIDS
    “The ongoing global spread of radionuclides from the destroyed Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is causing immune system-related illnesses in Japan, the USA, and worldwide. The same phenomenon occurred and is still occurring after the Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe in 1986, where it was termed “Chernobyl AIDS.”
    “One result of many studies conducted during the last few years in Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia is the clear finding that Chernobyl radiation suppresses immunity – a person’s or organism’s natural protective system against infection and most diseases.
    “The lymphatic system – the bone marrow, thymus, spleen, lymph nodes, and Peyer’s patches – has been impacted by both large and small doses of ionizing radiation from the Chernobyl fallout. As a result, the quantity and activity of various groups of lymphocytes and thus the production of antibodies, including various immunoglobulins, stem cells, and thrombocytes, are altered. The ultimate consequences of destruction of the immune system is immunodeficiency and an increase in the frequency and seriousness of acute and chronic diseases and infections, as is widely observed in the Chernobyl-irradiated territories… The suppression of immunity as a result of this radioactive contamination is known as “Chernobyl AIDS.”…


    Report comment

    • VanneV anne

      [cont.]
      “Apparently, impaired immunity triggered by Chernobyl radionuclides adversely affected all of the individuals, without exception, who were subjected to any additional radiation. (Yablokov et al., p. 87 & 92, emphasis mine)
      “So everyone who was exposed to Chernobyl radiation had their immune systems affected from the fallout. The same will happen to everyone exposed to Fukushima radiation, which is or will be the entire populations of Japan and the USA. This is known as ‘Fukushima AIDS.’….”
      http://optimalprediction.com/wp/page/2/


      Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Fukushima AIDS, part 2: Chronic radiation sickness.
    March 7, 2013
    “With the constant bombardment of the human organism with external and internal radiation in our time, many diseases are caused, including cancer. These exposures are not just from Fukushima, but Chernobyl, the nuclear bomb test era (which is still making people sick), medical diagnostics and treatments, military uses of depleted uranium, uranium mining, fracking, oil and gas spills, industrial and medical wastes, nuclear dump sites, and nuclear reactors of all types including nuclear power plants. There are many ways are health is being screwed up, our chromosomes and the increasing damage to our genetic integrity in each passing generation.
    “But there seems to be a general pattern involved in what is being called Fukushima AIDS. The prior post dealt with T-cells in the immune system. These arise from bone marrow, and radionuclides that accumulate in bone marrow and the skeleton are implicated in the general loss of immune system function. But there is a connection between the endocrine and immune systems that are both implicated in Fuku AIDS.
    “CHRONIC RADIATION SICKNESS (CRS)
    “The Physicians of Chernobyl website has a downloadable book “Neuropsychiatric Effects of Ionizing Radiation” by Nyagu and Loganovsky. …
    http://optimalprediction.com/wp/fukushima-aids-part-2-chronic-radiation-sickness/


    Report comment

  • pure water

    Dear friends, please have in mind, that Arnie Gundersen fights for credibility and faces great opposition and pressure. He has to prove every single word while his official opponents suffer verbal diarreha and are many! He has done the best for the intelligent part of the listeners, I am sure of it, and the best part of all is no one can attack him legally! Many more things can be added, or discussed, but have in mind he can tell just provable things in order to continue his work.


    Report comment

    • We Not They Finally

      That's well said. When people of the advanced expertise of Gundersen "come over," they should be welcomed, not pounded. The reality, meanwhile, seems to be that NO ONE can estimate the ongoing emissions that accurately, because testing air, water, earth, ocean, etc. for even the major radionuclides (cesium, plutonium, strontium-90 and the like)is daunting. Nearly everything becomes "a spot check," and then extrapolating from there. Mchael Collins (enviroreporter.com) does actually check California produce and fish with some sophisticated equipment, but such checks (which should be everywhere!) are few and far between.


      Report comment

      • We Not They Finally

        Oh but that said, yes, Gundersen's estimate of "a thousand times" does seem ridiculously low. He's actually estimated cancer alone at a projected two million on other occasions, but there is no TIME FRAME attached to that. And a lot of people will die of other things before the cancer shows up. This is like the world's most distressing, out-of-control crap shoot. Even the most well-meaning experts can only estimate.


        Report comment

  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture

    Radiation blew straight to United States, and still is. What we'll be watching for is statistics of thyroid removal.


    Report comment

  • bwoodfield bwoodfield

    It's the same as the typical government statement "no immediate threat". The IAEA will measure the deaths that can be directly attributed to the Fukushima explosions.. so in other words those who were in direct line of the explosion and radiation exposure, at the NPP, when in happened in 2011. All other deaths that are being caused due to the radiation fallout and bio-magnification effects will not be included. No different than the "offical" number of deaths due to the Chernobyl incident being 31.


    Report comment

  • Sickputer

    I would be inclined to add a few zeros myself. But any death estimates are hard to gauge two years into the ongoing saga. The emissions have not stopped and by some estimates the radiation already released is ten times Chernobyl. Even assuming 80% went into the Pacific the fact remains heavy fallout fell on a small island of 127 million humans. 40 million are within 150 miles of the complex.

    Because a large population is close and the main food production area for Japan is central Japan, the chances of radiation-induced illness and death are very high.

    Even if the complex were sealed today against any future new releases, I would still speculate millions of deaths over the next 20 years directly caused by radiation. If the plant continues to leak I would project tens of millions of deaths. And if the plant has more major releases we could be looking at 25% of the population cut short in life. 30 million early deaths would make people sit up and take notice in the Internet era.


    Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Dr. Scampa stated:
    Public Warnings?
    “An absorbed dose of 40 microSievert/hour at one Meter or about 39 inches above the ground, means a radioactive deposit creating an average of 12,330,000.00 Cesium 137 nuclear explosions per second (Becquerels) for every 39 inches square over much of the Northern Hemisphere.
    "Further, the radiation is spreading rapidly through the air. The Earth’s surface is covered with many deadly radioactive isotopes from the six crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Reactors.”
    “This is 22 times more Radiation than the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) decreed for the Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Disaster Exclusion Zone when they said everyone had to leave.
    In Chernobyl the radioactivity level was 555,000.00 radioactive molecular nuclear explosions per second per 39 square inches….”
    http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2012/02/09/fukushima-350-times-maximum-annual-radiation-dose-permissible-veterans-today-is-an-unsuspecting-public-being-sacrificed/


    Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Leuren Moret :Japanese Children In Grave Danger Fukushima Is 300 Times Worse Than Chernobyl
    05/03/2012
    http://www.electronzio.com/?q=node/435


    Report comment

  • VanneV anne

    Top Gov’t Official: Fukushima nuke report was so shocking we decided to treat it as if it didn’t exist -Kyodo
    January 21st, 2012
    http://enenews.com/top-govt-official-fukushima-nuke-report-shocking-decided-treat-didnt-exist-kyodo


    Report comment

  • Myme

    "researchers have found a significant reduction in cancer since the closure of the Rancho Seco nuclear reactor project in Sacramento County more than 23 years ago"

    http://news.yahoo.com/researchers-decline-cancer-plant-shutdown-212200777.html


    Report comment

  • This just in:

    Japanese utility takes blame for Fukushima nuclear crisis
    AP | March 29th, 2013, 7:07am
    http://www.scpr.org/news/2013/03/29/36603/japanese-utility-takes-blame-for-fukushima-nuclear/

    "The twin disasters cut power at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, causing meltdowns at three reactors. Massive radiation leaks at that time contaminated air, water and soil around the plant, forcing about 160,000 residents to evacuate.

    "Our safety culture, skills and ability were all insufficient," TEPCO President Naomi Hirose told a news conference. "We must humbly accept our failure to prevent the accident, which we should have avoided by using our wisdom and human resources to be better prepared."

    The report said that TEPCO's equipment and safety measures were not sufficient and that the meltdowns should have been avoided. It also said TEPCO didn't try to inform the public of risks and troubles at the plant."

    Well, as I explained in my slideshow, things need never get to the crisis management/apology stage if you practice proper Issues Management:

    http://www.slideshare.net/pr2global/issues-management-slideshow

    Ethics are also a large part of successful Issues/Crisis Management. The half-apology can sometimes be used as a deflection tactic:

    "TEPCO officials denied Friday that the incident posed safety threats outside of the plant, but acknowledged they lacked sensitivity about how Fukushima residents felt about the loss of power and cooling."


    Report comment

    • PavewayIII PavewayIII

      I'm not so sure Fukushima residents were upset about the loss of power or cooling.

      I think they were more upset by TEPCO's twenty-some-year-old saltwater-corroded vacuum breakers blowing out in an overloaded, home-brew MV switchbox of death and (once again) TEPCO's refusal to spend a dime on any kind of redundancy or backup.

      It's hard to be upset at TEPCO just for the rat cover-story. It's such a pathetic attempt at lying that it's disturbingly hilarious. Maybe Fukushima residents are upset that so many people apparently *believe* that excuse.


      Report comment

  • AGreenRoad AGreenRoad

    Summary of Negative Health Effects Of Low Dose Radiation On Children Around Chernobyl; via A Green Road http://agreenroad.blogspot.com/2012/03/low-dose-chernobyl-and-fukushima.html

    The Petkau Effect And Low Dose Radiation Harm Caused To Humans, Plants, Animals; via A Green Road
    http://agreenroad.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-petkau-effect-and-low-dose.html


    Report comment

  • tigrodelnorte tigrodelnorte

    "The hottest places in hell,are reserved for those,who in times of great moral crisis…………..maintain their neutrality.Dante


    Report comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.