“Obviously Worrying”: New estimate says Fukushima released “far more” radiation than Japan claims — Gov’t didn’t count what went over Pacific

Published: October 25th, 2011 at 1:21 pm ET


STOCKHOLM, Oct. 25 Nature.com’s Geoff Brumfiel reports that the “Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in March released far more radiation than the Japanese government has claimed,” according to a new study appearing in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

“The new model shows that Fukushima released 3.5 × 1016 Bq caesium-137, roughly twice the official government figure [1.5 × 1016 becquerels], and half the release from Chernobyl,” writes Brumfiel.

Lars-Erik De Geer, an atmospheric modeller with the Swedish Defense Research Agency in Stockholm, says the higher number is “obviously worrying”.

Andreas Stohl, an atmospheric scientist with the Norwegian Institute for Air Research in Kjeller, who led the research believes that the discrepancy is because Japan estimates never recorded the large quantities of radioactivity that blew east towards North America and Europe.

“Taking account of the radiation that has drifted out to the Pacific is essential for getting a real picture of the size and character of the accident,” says Tomoya Yamauchi, a radiation physicist at Kobe University.

Read More: Fallout forensics hike radiation toll : Nature News

If Stohl and Yamauchi are correct, then the Japanese government’s release estimates only include the radiation that blew over Japan. And according to Stohl’s study, only ONE-FIFTH of radiation release went over Japan:

“About 20% of the caesium was deposited on Japanese territory, while about 80% was deposited in the water.”

Using Stohl’s facts and figures, it appears that the government cesium estimates should be increased FOUR-FOLD.

And recall what a JAEA scientist who helped to develop the Japanese official estimate said, “I think the release from [the spent fuel pool in] unit 4 is not important.” (SOURCE)

Yet the Stohl study also reveals that Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 played a “significant part” in the release of  cesium-137. Perhaps four-fold is not enough.

Published: October 25th, 2011 at 1:21 pm ET


Related Posts

  1. Highest Estimate Yet: Fukushima about equal to Chernobyl, says US gov’t funded study April 3, 2012
  2. Fukushima: Twice As Bad As Thought — Japan gov’t more than doubles estimate for amount of radiation released after meltdown June 6, 2011
  3. Study: Up to 47 quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 released into Pacific from Fukushima — Nearly 50 times original Tepco estimate March 12, 2013
  4. AP: Amount of radiation released from Fukushima is still unknown — Recent studies suggest Japan continues to significantly underestimate scale of disaster December 27, 2011
  5. TV: “A new and disturbing development” around Fukushima — Worrying claims of ‘cancer cluster’ emerging — Specialists deeply concerned (VIDEO) November 3, 2013

97 comments to “Obviously Worrying”: New estimate says Fukushima released “far more” radiation than Japan claims — Gov’t didn’t count what went over Pacific

  • dpl dpl

    The world agencies are calling BS on the japanese government official estimates. Nice but where were you when it counted.
    The nuclear mafia must have scared the truth out of them. They had the realtime data from satellites analyzed it then hid the reports until it was no longer a threat to commerce.

  • Cindy

    A$$holes !!

    • Cindy

      I’m going to have to buy a geiger counter , to just continue to go spearfishing …

      • Bekrl Bekrl

        Measuring food with a Geiger counter is not impossible but difficult. To do it properly oyu have to completely dehydrate a sample (or best turn it to charcoal as slowly as possible). Then turn the charcoal to powder, and measure this.

        Of course, your fish will not be edible after this process. Even if the one didn’t turn out to be radioactive, the next one you catch just might! Fish swim vast distances over short periods of time, especially larger fish. Best to start spear fishing on the atlantic side of antarctica.


    • They will say also, what is in your yard, your testings and nuke plants produced ! Prove it’s ours !

  • Bleifrei Bleifrei

    thats not a surprice

    each more comes to light, the more they will have to admit,

    hold the people who say there is no danger, they should feel themselves in radiation parts
    when cancer is coming down ans sickness will rule the boddys

  • jackassrig

    If visit Moscow’s neutron web site, the neutron levels are starting to rise.

  • pure water

    And everybody is silent about the ocean. No international reaction. Human life and environment sacrificed for the sake of economy. Just fine! Breathe and drink and eat your money, if you can! Speak with them, kiss them, and let them comfort you!

  • CB CB

    432 counted nuclear reactors online, not mentioning the military ships, subs etc. When we are all dead and gone, what a nightmare we will have left our unique pretty blue planet.

  • OlympicLight OlympicLight

    So I normally don’t comment on here, I just usually pop in and read the articles to make sure japan still exists…

    But I need some opinions from those who are more globally aware to answer me this, if you wouldn’t mind:

    I live in the west coast of the US and I woke up this morning to find my car covered in yellow powder. It was parked on a busy street away from trees and plants. And it was covered in this stuff, not just lightly dusted, but every inch was coated. I could barely see out my windows.

    It’s not spring here, it’s October. It can’t be pollen.

    If you’ve noticed before, plutonium is yellow dust and has been spotted not just in Japan but in numerous locations around the globe…go ahead look it up…

    So my question is this: what is on my car and should I think about moving??

    • Olympic Light, take a picture and post it on here.

    • CB CB

      OlympicLight, Fukushima Reactors No. 5, 6 now in crisis — Cesium outside release points up 1,000% in recent days (strait from ENEnews headlines October 24th) Who knows what the real story is. We didn’t find out about the meltdowns immediately afterward back in March. So an abundance of precaution is advised. I hope it’s not what you think.

    • Bekrl Bekrl

      Dude – get a Geiger counter. Its the only way to answer the questions you just asked. No one – especially the government or authorities, is gonna tell you when to move. And no one is gonna help you do it (other than good buddies or family).

      I left a dream location that I was farming organically in central Japan. I was consistently measuring radiation in the rain, and realized my permaculture was gettign premanently fucked over! So I left with my family, ASAP… left 5 years of hard work behind for the sake of my kids. You gotta do whats right man.

      I have a variety of Geiger counters that I recommend on my website, that you can actually get in a couple of days (not 4 month waiting list)


      • OlympicLight OlympicLight

        Thank you very much, Bekrl.

        That was very brave of you to leave Japan with your family, not to mention very wise considering all of the tragic events that are unfolding there recently.

        I know the government is never going to blow the whistle for anyone, there’s too much invested in nuclear power and the US is suffering economic crises left and right.

        I wish I could just pack up and leave, but its easier said then done. Not knowing exactly whats going on is extremely frustrating. Should I worry about this yellow dust? Should we leave? Where do we go?

        Honestly, I think its too late to leave, if the governemnts are lying about the results and this yellow shit really is what I think it is.

        My aunt died of thyroid cancer a few weeks ago. It started in her liver and spread to her thyroid glands. She was diagnosed a month after march and now shes gone.

        I don’t want to panic about this nuclear disaster, especially in front of so many who don’t really care about it at all. But everyday it just seems to get worse and I find myself thinking why haven’t I left yet?

        Tepco, iaea, and all of these government officials who are lying through their teeth about this situation deserve to be locked up in a padded cell forever. And we the people deserve to know what the hell is really going on!

        • Raul23

          I’m really sorry to hear about your aunt. Aside from the obvious suspicions, do you have any reason to think it Fukushima related? Were any tests done?

          I hope the questions on such a sensitive and personal subject aren’t too much.



          • OlympicLight OlympicLight

            I have my suspicions because for one, she was diagnosed in April with cancer, one month after the Fukushima crises. Two, she was elderly, nearly 64 years old. Radiation affects the young and old more so than a healthy young adult. Three, she was a gardener and constantly caring for her plants and a few vegetables. We saw spikes in the amount of radiation throughout this time and it rained quite a bit, so the fact she spent so much time outside working with soil and water increased her chances of exposure. And lastly, it spread to her thyroid glands and by that time there was nothing more we could do. I don’t know all of the details about her tests or treatments, but I don’t think they would’ve told any of us if it was Fukushima related.

            Thanks for the article. I really hope this doesn’t happen to anyone else, truly.

    • StPaulScout StPaulScout

      Dampen a rag, wipe a bunch of it up, then send the rag to Arne with a note stating what it is and where it came from. He would most likely have it tested.

      • stock stock@hawaii.rr.com

        Yeah, and triple bag it, and maybe wrap it in a tinfoil hat, LOL. Seriously good idea, but if it is bad stuff, probably the one who mailed it would be nailed for some interstate terrorism crime. Orwellian madness indeed

        • OlympicLight OlympicLight

          That’s why I don’t think I’m going to send it in the mail, but deliver it myself to a local university that performs radiation tests, or has geiger counters. Becoming a terrorist is definitly *not on my bucket list

    • nohobear nohobear

      Until you get a geiger counter, Next best thing would be put a sample under the microscope (borrow a neighbor kids). Even under a low power scope, pollen will have an organic structure to it. Or take a sample to a local agricultural college.

      I suppose if you know any photographers, you could also put some on some photographic film, and develop it. Both of these might confirm your suspicions. Looking at it with the naked eye tells you nothing.

      I’m waiting to detect the yellow “pollen” on my car once our rainy season begins in southern california. Time for people to start demanding answers instead of being force fed the BS they want us to hear.

      • americancommntr

        Then take it over to the physical science college and see if it is radioactive pollen, from Japan.

        In the Midwest, there are still lots of things blooming and putting out pollen. Ragweed is one. The West has sagebrush, probably still in bloom. Things rot, too, and the mold releases spores.

        • many moons

          I bet the late bllom in the midwest isn’t putting out pollen that’s bright,synthetic, metallic yellow!

    • OlympicLight OlympicLight

      Here are some photos I took. Unfortunatly, my boyfriend wiped a lot of it off with a rag before I could take them. I’m planning on sending the sample he took to a local university for testing and trying to look at it myself with a microscope.

      Of interesting note: it got inside my car. The windows were rolled up, so I’m guessing it either went through my windshield or vents.



      dash & behind wheel:







      As I drove around tacoma and then to olympia, I noticed other cars had it too, but much more in tacoma. This happened overnight and it’d been raining a lot, so I was surprised to find this much ‘pollen’ at all..

      What are your thoughts, theories, questions? Love to hear some feedback.


      • Dogleg Dogleg

        I created an account but dont know how to access your photos. Suggestions?

        • OlympicLight OlympicLight

          Hmm I’ll try reposting using a different server

        • OlympicLight OlympicLight


          I created a facebook account under Olympic Light and posted the pictures in the album titled Yellow Dust. It’s open to the public.

          Cross your fingers and hope it works…

          • Dogleg Dogleg

            Wow that is alot of “Pollen”.

          • Dogleg Dogleg

            Sent you a friend request. Curtis Holmes

          • many moons

            The dust looks very strange to me for one reason. I work with dust, we cover sheets of metal with dust and the dust falls on top of other dust,makes layers of dust. Your yellow dust is evenly seperated one from the other instead of the way pollen falls from a tree, it falls unevenly and ontop of itself. This yellow stuff came in the rain and was seperated from other dust in the water. The droplets kept the dust at even distances and when the water dried the dust was left at even intervals. I do believe pollen gets washed out in the rain,and can land on cars etc, but I’ve never seen anything in this quantity or during the fall season. Whatever it is it was trasnported by the rain.

          • OlympicLight OlympicLight

            @ many moons

            I think your right. Pollen deteriorates in the presence of water, and in one picture I’d taken in the morning, there were rain droplets all over the car and the dust was still there. I think there might be a slight possibility its from a local factory, there are a lot of those in that city (aroma of tacoma). But alas, its never happened before.

            Its a real head scratcher for sure

          • James Tekton James Tekton

            Hello OL,

            Could not see your pictures but sure would like to.

            Try using a Imageshack.com account to store your photos in and then share the links here. No sign up and no CIA-facebook hassles either.

            Would be very interested to see this yellow stuff. If it makes it’s appearance here, we will measure and document it. As it is raining now, we will see in the morning what is to offer.

            Here is the earlier rain check.:


            My Imageshack pictures.:



            Protect yourself as best as you can. Stay indoors more. Ask for help from the group here if you need it.


          • many moons

            Olympic light, see the article I posted futher down, it explains the presence of yellow dust and is associated with nuclear reactors!

          • OlympicLight OlympicLight


            Third times the charm! I will be using this website from now on for any further pic uploading, thanks a ton james for the link!

  • CB CB

    Snort it like “cocain”. You’ll be better off.

  • OlympicLight OlympicLight

    Will do red

  • Seems to me they must have figured out how to track a radio-active plume by now. Surely with 60 odd years of nuclear weapons testing and nuclear energy someone on this planet must have experience tracking nuclear fall out or a radio active plume. We get so short changed by them that call themselves our public servants.

    • Jebus Jebus

      I refer you back to this:

      Nuclear detectors in Washington state detect radioactive cat
      Published 25 March 2008
      Share |

      DHS has radiation monitors along Interstate 5 to make sure no radioactive material is being smuggled into the country; the monitors are so sensitive that they detected a sick cat in a car driving at 70 miles per hour (the cat was taken home after cancer radiation treatment at the vet)


      And this prior post…From 8/17


      And I quote myself:

      If they can detect a fucking radioactive cat, then why the hell can’t we get REAL readings as to the amount that has escaped from those reactors and what has wafted in on the breeze to the west coast of the US? WTF?

      Why radioactive sulfur now? From some researchers in SOCal?

      Is this the best that the MSM and the PTB can give to the people of the US/World?

    • James Tekton James Tekton

      Hello Mark,

      Yes, they do and did track those plumes. We had many maps showing us where it was all going. We were actually using them to know when to stay in more, or know when to go out.

      Then, because we made the mistake of sharing them with so many others, people began to freak out because they could actually see the stuff. The panic wave was just about to happen strong and then, the babylonians shut them all down along with all the real reporting so as to not cause this world wide and growing panic. Profits first, lives last.

      Yes, it is terrible that they hide the real truths from us. It is evil of the worst kind. There is nothing or no one that will bring back the maps and there is a total failure on the part of so many supposed scientists. What good are they if they will not even reveal the truth.

  • Dogleg Dogleg

    Hi Olympic. By your name I am guessing you are near Wa. coast. Seems that it would be the wrong time of year for pollen. We had large ammounts of yellow powder in the rain here in March ( Boise Idaho ). I got a couple pics and will try to post. I would like to see yours for comparison. I wish I would have saved a sample for testing

    • OlympicLight OlympicLight

      I did end up taking a wash rag and wiped some of it off and sealed it. I just wish I had a Geiger counter. Not just the cheap ones that detect a couple different rays, but the ones that can actually tell you what’s in the air/on the ground.

      I do live in Wa and will post pics asap

      • stock stock@hawaii.rr.com

        Y’all do you they call uranium “yellow cake”

      • many moons

        Strontium crome yellow is a frequently used pigment, not sure if it has anything to do with strontium 90 except that the radioactive version is also yellow when it comes in contact with oxygen.

        History of Lemon yellow:
        Three more yellows were developed from Vauquelin’s element. They were all sold under the name Lemon yellow and were introduced to the artists’ palette around 1830. The most permanent of these was strontium yellow (SrCrO4). Mixing solutions of strontium chloride with neutral potassium chromate made it. Barium yellow (BaCrO4) was made much the same way as strontium yellow except barium chloride replaces the strontium salt. The third was zinc yellow (3·ZnCrO4·K2Cr2O7).
        Strontium yellow was a cool, light yellow but richer in tone than barium yellow. All three were semi-transparent; strontium yellow was the most opaque. They were used in both oil and watercolor. Like all chrome colors, they tended to turn greenish in oil. Field is said to have introduced barium yellow in England as a less costly alternative to Platina yellow that was made from platinum. Blockx preferred barium yellow also. He found its permanence to be outstanding after thirty years and that it had an additional advantage of being mixable with all other pigments

    • Anthony Anthony

      This is not good, is it? I think they are gonna run once the corium is completely underground… just a hunch. This powder stuff, over here, is unnerving to say the least. Potentially maybe deadly.

  • Dogleg Dogleg

    I just changed my profile pic. This is my car door handle. My driver side window doesnt roll all the way up so rain water lands on the handle and then collects and drops off leaving this bright yellow crap

  • StillJill StillJill

    Yes, Dogleg,…that’s the same stuff I have had here in the foothills of northern Ca. It almost had a sheen like fool’s gold, Yes? It’s smeary,….oily, or dry,…but even when it floats in the air,…it looks like fairy dust. Wow,…we could really use our words to come up with some funnies I’m predicting. Death delivering, twinkling, fairy dust.

    • Dogleg Dogleg

      Hi Jill. After the #3 spent fule pool blew up I spent a lot of time and effort trying to track where the plume was headed. By my best guesstimate, just before the plume hit the west coast, the jet streem droped far south. It then headed sharp Northeast making landfall south of the bay and headed directly over Boise and on up twards Canada. I tried to time when the plume would hit Boise and the next morning this yellow crap was everywhere. Odd, dont you think? It rained for several days prior also, making it unlikely for there to be that much pollen in the air.

  • StillJill StillJill

    Dogleg,…I’m right there with ya,…my wiper-blades need replacing,…some days last spring and summer,…I had to use them just for yellow dust. Not pollen! Pollen makes me sneeze,…this does not, although it does seem to mimic a histamine. It smears on my windshield like smeary hard-boiled yolks! I’ve actually had to pull over and wet a towel to wipe it off before trying to drive!

  • StillJill StillJill

    I know what this is reminding me of,…Angela Landsburry in “Gaslight”!

  • StillJill StillJill

    Lansbury, apologies.-Wiki weighs in–

    Gaslight as expression

    From the film’s title, “gaslighting” acquired the meaning of ruthlessly manipulating an individual, for nefarious reasons, into believing that they are going crazy or imagining things.

  • StillJill StillJill

    Everyone here just laughs at me,….they are 100% certain it is pollen,….and they are 100% certain I am fully insane. If I keep this up,….they will commit me.

  • Dogleg Dogleg

    Gaslighting? Did not know. As Woopie would say “I learn something new everyday here”. I get the same from friends and family. We need to have some tested. Out of work and money or I would. This should be changing soon and maybe I can buy a gieger counter as well. Their worst nightmare, me with a gieger counter. Ha Ha Ha!

  • StillJill StillJill

    Love it Dogleg,…misery loves companions at times! 🙂

    I wish I could somehow make a video montage of people ‘rolling their eyes at me’. Oh how creative I could be with the ‘dubbed in’ commentary!

    • beamofthewave

      Same here about people thinking I am nuts. I am in Oregon and I havent seen this pollen stuff yet, 75 miles south of Portland. If I went anywhere it would be midwest of Kentucky where I saw the jet stream did not go carrying all this poison.

  • dosdos dosdos

    And these guys aren’t counting the cesium that went into the Pacific directly from the plant. This is just atmospheric releases that floated out above the water. It doesn’t include the leaks from the plant that never saw air from the release on. It also doesn’t account for ejected material from the cores or SFP’s, nor the radionuclides entering the water table. The Norwegians are strictly atmospheric study specialists.

    The totals are worse than their reports.

    As for the 80% + 20% doesn’t leave any for the US, the US’s share is somewhere within the 80%.

  • westcoastguy westcoastguy

    I recently bought a supplement called “the ultimate meal” once i was home i read the label more then i could in the store because my roommate was rushing. I noticed it said the ginkgo biloba was from japan. it also had the company’s name where they get it from so i called the company and asked a couple questions. they told me the ginkgo they have in stock is from china. i asked when the last time they had anything from japan and they said in august. and i said “you understand there is a nuclear meltdown in japan right?” and the lady chuckled at me and then got serious and said that is why we have started buying from china. but then she said the ginkgo they get from japan is tested extensively and was cleared. so i chuckled and said ill be returning your product now thanks

  • Pallas89juno Pallas89juno

    Two things odd about this article: releas”ed” (past tense), which cooberates the Japanese government version while simultaneously appearing to critique it. Second, “half of the Chernobyl” release? Come the fuck on!!!

  • Govt to check Fukushima pollen / Cedar pollen may carry cesium on the wind, but at ‘harmless’ levels

    The Forestry Agency will start checking for radioactive substances in cedar pollen in Fukushima Prefecture as
    early as next month in response to the crisis at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant,
    the agency said.
    There is very little data in Japan or elsewhere in the world about pollen from plants grown in areas with high
    levels of radiation. If high levels of pollen-borne radiation are found, the Environment Ministry plans to
    release the data at the end of this year together with its forecast of the expected amount of cedar pollen to be
    dispersed in the air next spring.
    The agency plans to pick male cedar flowers in the no-entry zone and check them for radioactive cesium …
    According to the Social Welfare and Public Health Bureau of the Tokyo metropolitan government, the wind sometimes
    carries cedar pollen more than 200 kilometers.
    “It depends on the velocity and direction of the wind. Pollen is said to fly from dozens to hundreds of
    kilometers. When a survey was conducted by helicopter, pollen was found as high as 5,000 meters in the air. It is
    highly likely that pollen from Fukushima Prefecture reaches the Tokyo metropolitan area,” said Norio Sahashi, a
    visiting science professor at Toho University and an authority on pollen.
    But specialists say people do not have to worry too much about the effect of the pollen on human bodies. …

    “But specialists say people do not have to worry too much about the effect of the pollen on human bodies”


    may incorporate the test data into cedar pollen later this year

    The Forestry Agency will test cedar pollen in Fukushima Prefecture for radiation from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, agency officials said Friday.
    If high radiation levels are detected, the agency may…

    • OlympicLight OlympicLight

      Awesome finds. So either what was on my car is from china, japan, or confused horny plants.

      None of those possibilities sound very comforting. I’d advise everyone to stay out of the rain/fog/any form of precipitation for the next few days. Also avoid drinking ground water if possible



    Porterblog video dated Sunday October 23 describes recent detection of Iodine-133 in St Loius rain-water and compares it with detection of Neptunium-239 in rain-water on October 10.

    Potrblog states that the exposure levels in the precipitation are 2.76 millirem an hour
    (27.6 microsieverts an hour according to calculator I found here http://online.unitconverterpro.com/unit-conversion/convert-group/convert.php?cat=radiation—dose-equivalent)


    Potrblog describes the radioactive fallout cycle of first Neptunium 239 (Oct 10) and then the Iodine-133 (last week) that he believes derives from the on-off criticality of the corium in the ground water.

    The Criticality Cycle stems from corium in ground water, which is creating a cycle of a neutron feast and neutron famine.

    High Levels of criticality produce Neutron feast: Neutron bombardment creating neptunium-239 that decays into plutonium-239.

    Something happens to change conditions leading to a neutron famine.

    Neutron Famine: Iodine and zenon then get produced. Iodine-133 and zenon-133 absorb neutrons and thereby temporarily reduces intensity of criticality.

    very bad

    • cont…

      Alternating cycle of neutron feast and neutron famine explains the fallout Potrblog is detecting in St Louis.

      When is it risk mitigating to have an explosion to “de-criticalize” what is happening there he asks again?

      My opinion is that the Potrblog team knows what they are talking about. This video uses data from the jet stream, the EPA, and detailed mathematical analysis of decay chains to support its claims and encourages viewers to offer alternative interpretations of the data.

  • Human0815

    This is just a Study and not yet confirmed,
    “The analysis has been posted online for open peer review by the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics”.

  • StillJill StillJill

    Yes Human0815,…this is only a “study”, only one view,….you are correct. The TRUTH (problem),…is even BIGGER!

  • Bobby1

    The problem with these atmospheric model contamination results (aside from being understated in the first place) is that the vast majority of the radioactive particles are still in the upper atmosphere. What has come down in Japan is a miniscule fraction of this. It will take 2 years for 50% of the radiation to come down from the jet stream. PLUS, there is much more above the jet stream, extending for miles up. All this will eventually come down. PLUS, there is more going up into it all the time.