Report: Gov’t paper shows melt-out at Fukushima was predicted on day of quake

Published: September 8th, 2011 at 4:06 pm ET


Breaking News: Melt OUT was predicted on 3/11, Fukushima Diary by Mochizuki, September 5, 2011:

Emphasis Added


On March 11, at 22:35, the Cabinet received advice predicting that the fuel would be damaged and the pressure vessels would be breached

Forecast: exposure of top of active fuel (TAF): 21:40 (approx.)
Forecast: damage to the reactor core(s) begins: 22:20 (approx.)
Forecast: breaching of the pressure vessel(s) begins: 23:50 (approx.) […]

[…] In other words, at approx. 22:20, damage to the reactor core(s) began, and a meltdown of the nuclear fuel would begin if the cooling system were not restored. Breach of the RPV was predicted to occur at 23:50. If the RPV were damaged, the containment vessel would also be damaged, and the containment vessel is only 3cm thick.

The amount of time between the start of damage to the core and breaching of the RPV is predicted to be 1.5 hours. The 3cm-thick containment vessel would begin to be damaged within one hour at most. […]

Download cabinet briefing paper (Japanese)

Published: September 8th, 2011 at 4:06 pm ET


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31 comments to Report: Gov’t paper shows melt-out at Fukushima was predicted on day of quake

  • Ariana

    And they have been making it sound like this took weeks to happen. The bastards. Everyone I know is fatigued, has stomach upset, sore throat, etc. They are going to poach us all.

  • farawayfan farawayfan

    It’s ok, they’re going to cool those reactors right off now that all that pesky nuclear fuel has melted out.

    Just more info revealing the slow pattern of information revelation only when they absolutely have to, and the cover up that otherwise dominates this ongoing disaster process….

  • odylan

    I can’t say I’m surprised.

  • socal stukncali

    of course it was predicted! it’s been predicted by every scientist in the world who has the right computer software. im sure they know exactly where it all has landed too

  • StPaulScout StPaulScout

    I would love to see the forcast expanded out another two or three weeks. Now THAT would be interesting.

  • that is totally insane, such irresponsible behavior on display. oh and thanks for destroying the planet TEPCO. the beat goes on.

  • sebaschan

    All this important information was at hand, and all they used it for was saving their own a**. And since the jap. gov. couldn’t bother to evacuate millions of people since this would have cost money, they told Tepco to stay on site and do something… at least something so that they were able to make up stories for more than 5 months and still continue to…

  • James2

    No reason for anyone here to be surprised. We all have known it for quite some time.

    Two days ago we found out the Prime Minister was afraid for Tokyo 2 days after the accident – which some of us suspected at the time – but he didn’t admit until six months later.

    So now we are in the mode of having lies being retroactively exposed. What I’m flabberghasted at is the public’s total and unrelenting apathy toward the whole subject.

  • bleep_hits_blades

    “Yes, but is it criminal?”

    I am not putting down any of our wonderful people who have the courage and integrity to come out publically and tell the truth, or important parts of the truth… but to my knowledge, only Chris Busby has had the guts to come right out and talk about war crimes – and war criminals – and compensating injured people.

    This is a situation just reeking of criminality in high places, and on a massive scale – so many lives are at stake, not to mention the viability of the ecosphere of the entire planet.

    So are they (the governments, the regulators, the MSM, GE, Tepco, etc. etc. etc.) all covering for each other – and the people be damned? – You betcha they are.

    All of the damaged people should be taken care of medically and compensated financially and relocated out of the immediate danger zone; and then there is the malfeasance in public office, and reckeless criminal endangerment, racketeering, and I don’t even know enough law to know all of the crimes that lie behind this and that it would be legit and appropriate to charge these people with.

    After listening to that really good interview with Gunderson and Caldicott — I wrote this. Got no answer. Have asked Gunderson, Caldecott, and Leuren Moret basically this same question and never gotten an answer. I think I know the answer and that they would not want to put it in print and send it out to a stranger…can’t say I blame them.

    Dear —- ,

    You know a lot about nuclear issues, enough to ask some very good questions, which made for excellent interviews.

    At one point you were discussing what it is in the Japanese character that makes this whole scenario possible – the government keeping people in danger, basically, and lying about the dangers, and the people basically so docile (for instance, taking their kids back to Fukushima when told that schools were opening. I would have said, NO WAY is my kid going to school there this year worth risking his/her life!).

    I would like to present – and ask if you agree with – my own observations. I think this whole thing is just SO big, so overwhelming, that really to deal with it even as, say, the Russians did with Chernobyl (which was far from perfect of course), would be logistically impossible.

    There are too many people too close to ‘ground zero’ and no places to take or put them all, move them all to. The situation is different in several critically important ways from that which the Russians faced with Chernobyl.

    The costs of trying to deal appropriately with this disaster would be astronomical, it seems to me – such as just getting all the affected people to safer locations and compensating those affected – like farmers, fishermen, etc. who have lost their livelihoods.

    Conscious decisions are being made behind closed doors to sacrifice these people rather than spending money trying to help them and move them to safety.

    It is not just the Japanese who are acting like the famous see/hear/speak no evil trio of monkeys … it is the governments, media, and people of the entire globe. For instance, the US and Canada are directly downwind of this CRIMINAL planned and occurring incineration or radioactive-contaminated materials — but there is nary a peep of protest from their governments. (“By all means, poison our land and people; be our guest… Nooooo problemo…”)

    These governments are not protesting, not trying to protect their own people, ditto the so-called ‘watch dog’ (more appropriately, lap dog) MSM. Rather, they are protecting the nuclear power industry, and protecting and participating in the Japanese government’s program of de facto genocide. (just as Leuren Moret has been saying from the start.)

    Basically all of the governments of the Northern Hemisphere (also Australia in the Southern Hemisphere), who have gone ahead with this dangerous industry (and the use of du ammunition) ‘have egg on their faces’ (and are even arguably GUILTY OF SERIOUS CRIMES for having allowed such dangerous facilities to be built in the first place, and for allowing unsafe plants to continue in operation – AND THEY ARE CERTAINLY LEGALLY AND FINANCIALLY LIABLE FOR ALL OF THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN/ARE BEING HARMED, PHYSICALLY AND FINANCIALLY by their self-serving recklessness and abuse of the trust and power of their public offices and positions0. These responsible parties are hoping to smooth things over and lie about the consequences, greater cancer rates, more deformed births, etc. – and the underlying corruption) and keep on winging it and covering it up as best they can for as long as they can -which with the degree of control they have and the degree of denial in the masses, might well be quite a bit, for quite a while.

    This is how I see it and have seen it from the start, and I am just wondering if you agree with me.

    Also I think we are in deep trouble at this point and facing massive poisoning of the biosphere and massive die-offs of plant and animal and human life. (PLUTONIUM!)

    I am no expert, but it seem to me that it is such an extremely catastrophic situation that a high degree of expertise is not needed to get a sense of the magnitude of the problem, with so much radioactive material now in existence, and being dispersed around the globe, no end in sight, with such long lifespans – up to a quarter of a million years and more.

    I know it is kind of a touchy thing to come out and express an opinion, for you as an widely known figure, but still I am asking your opinion.


    • NoPrevarication NoPrevarication


      Thank you for such a thoughtful elucidation of what one would expect of those experts who have not responded. It must be that they are afraid; I can think of no other explanation for their failure to answer you question. But afraid of what? Their position? Our government? The nuclear power industry? Of what???

      As I listened to Helen Caldecott interview Arnie Gunderson, it occurred to me that they were describing the situation in Japan, but really, the same analysis applied to the United States. Where is the difference between what the Japanese government and TEPCO have failed to do and what our own government has failed to do? It’s a question of magnitude, of course, but the problem is the same.

      I agree with Chris Busby. Their negligence has lead and will continue to lead to massive medical problems, pain and grief for so many people. It is criminal; there is no question about that. Where is the court that will punish them for their deliberate failures?

      There is no forgiveness in my heart for them because the children of Japan and here have died, are dying, or will die a horrible death. They have been unnecessarily exposed to radiation. My heart grieves for the parents who have to face the death of their children.

      The specter of my grandchildren suffering a similar fate is before me. God help us all.

      • luckyjay

        No offense meant — but does Dr Caldicott always sound like she’s downed a coupla shots before airtime…?

        (Or does she have health issues of which I’m totally ignorant?)

        • Steven Steven

          She’s an Australian 🙂 Ergo, her speech will sound somewhat ‘slurred’ to anyone unfamiliar with our particular version of the English language… and/or if she was hitting the bottle it wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow here in Oz (especially considering recent events).

  • James Tekton James Tekton

    Will we ever really know what the truth is when all that really matters is that we are really getting pelted with higher radiation and no one gives a fish?

    Please excuse, but this is a right now event and may it please be heard and shared right now as it just started.

    A memorial to the Liberty:



    AND vote for Ron Paul on this poll now too:

    • theypoisonus


      Ya’ know, I actually did consider voting for sir paul untill I happened to see a recent commercial of his.

      He LOVED reagan.. rememeber trickle down that never DID trickle down? He was the beginning of corporatism in the US…
      Since mr paul wants to emulate mr reagan, he just lost my vote.

      OH..and btw… that ‘audit the fed’ crowing? It ain’t gonna happen.. no way, no how.
      It should !! but it won’t, no matter how much crowing anyone does about it. Nice show, I have to admit, but he lost me totally on the reagan thing.. I would never consider it…

      AND, just for the record, some or most of us aren’t promoting political views here.. in fact, POLITICIANS are one of the major problems with Nuclear. imho.


      • americancommntr

        “rememeber trickle down that never DID trickle down? ”
        theypoisonous, only liberals call it trickle down.

        The law of diminishing returns is an immutable economic law in this world. Taxes in the late 70’s were well beyond that point and total revenues were low as a result. By cutting tax rates the point on the curve was brought back up, and revenues increased throughout the 80’s. The only failure was spending was not cut, and Democrats set that in stone with Carter’s baseline budgeting act in 1979.

        Conservatism has only been tried once in US history and that was for two years when Reagan was President. It worked. The economy boomed for 20 years, tax revenues soared, everyone but dumbasses profited, all boats were raised by the tide, the USSR lost the cold war, the US military was made supreme, AND DAMMIT THE RICH PAID BOTH A HIGHER PERCENT OF THE TAXES AND MORE TAXES THAN EVER BEFORE. IRS statistic show it.

        Don’t disrespect supply-side economics. It works. But Congress has spent all the money in this nation, has spent almost as much of the rest of the world’s money it can, and that continuing problem will not stop until the government is falling-down broke. It matters not how good the economy is or will be or could be, as long as Congress overspends.

        A good example of so-called ‘trickle down’ is the home I once did some work on. One guy who was really good at what he did, and made it big. He provided a good or service and made a ton of money doing it. He built a 9,500 sq. ft. house for himself. When I worked there, there must have been 30 workmans’ vehicles parked around the construction site. All were employed by the profits of this one productive man. Nobody but Congress and Democrats and some RHINOS took anything from anybody there, and probably one-third of the wages of anyone there, not to mention another quarter of their take-home pay when they went to spend it. The cost of a loaf of bread, is 50 to 70 percent taxes.

        Before you attack common sense, read up on the Pilgrims, the Jamestown Colony, and 75 years of Soviet and Eastern European communism. Look at Detroit, East Saint Louis, any big Democrat-controlled city, or state. And look at night satellite photos of North Korea. Read a kid’s book, why don’t you, from the last century, “The Little Red Hen”.

    • Blown Camaro

      I just voted for Ron. Thanks for pointing out the poll! As of right now he is 2 percentage points behind Romney which is my second choice.

    • i know the choice of current canidates is pathetic and small, but i just can’t bring myself to the table of Ron Paul

      Mr. Paul’s voting record. be aware

      • Terranigma1 Terranigma1

        Thanks for the voting link. It looks like Paul voted against an India/U.S. nuclear agreement, so Paul is definitely my man!

    • NoPrevarication NoPrevarication

      @James Tekton

      James, I did not see a poll using the link you gave.

  • StillJill StillJill

    Yes,…dig a BIG hole, and place Lady Liberty in it. Give her some roses to remember us by,…and shovel in the dirt. The fat lady’s about done singing, and the lights are going out.

  • Lady Liberty was buried when JFK was capped.
    Melt through was reported by Tacoma and others on this site. Above article only confirms what some of us knew all along. For me personally above article only confirms what I all ready suspected that blogs and individual comments on the internet are more trusted news sources then mainstream media. Stupid trolls we all see here are other confirming events. God Bless and Good Luck to all you Ener Folk

  • bleep_hits_blades

    This take-over by the trans-national corporate/banking elite has been going on for a long time, before JFK. Good book is THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND. About the money scam. Once you understand that, a lot falls into place.

    Yeah, I have wondered if some of the more, shall we say, unintelligent remarks here were coming from trolls.

    Over all, I love this website and some of the best info I have found has been here, posted by those who maintain this website (thank you, whoever you are) and also visitors to the site.

  • Stlouieishot

    they knew it had melted down and melted out in a short time. at TMI it only took them 2 hours 20 minutes to destroy the core. and that was with the plant still having the capability to pump water into the core.
    take an oxy/acetelyne torch, it will cut through 1 inch thick steel relatively quickly. now take a couple dozen tons of corium which is even hotter than a blowtorch and drop that on the bottom of the RPV. the corium had probably melted the bottom right out of the RPV and was eating its way through the floor within 48 hours of total coolant loss.
    that only accounts for reactors 1 and 2. 3 as we all know sent the corium in the opposite direction.

    japan has one hell of a problem on its hands. they are dealing with 2 TMI worst case scenario accidents with a Chernobyl thown in for good measure. thats not even counting the #4 fuel pool which has caught fire and burned multiple times.

    Tepco is killing off millions in order to “save face”. at least the russians hauled ass and got their blown reactor covered and entombed in a very short time, they worried about saving face later.

  • americancommntr

    Good comments.

    Tepco should forever after be known as nuclear gangsters.

    And the term “China Syndrome” should now be called the “America Syndrome”, as Japan is not far from China, and theoretically it could practically melt all the way through to America.

  • BreadAndButter BreadAndButter

    Sunflowers reduce radiation
    There we go! The sunflowers seeded in April by politicians and officials have done their magic on 4 contaminated patches of land…all is fine in Fuku, you can all come home!

  • kintaman kintaman

    So everyone has been sitting put in Tokyo, etc because they were told it was safe by their trusted government and news media. When the word eventually comes out that it is, in fact, not will they go for mob justice with pitchforks and torches in hand?

    • Sickputer

      Could be…the ruling party had troubles after the Mongolian invasion over 700 years ago. *;-)

      BTW…anybody notice the last sentence in the Japan Wikipedia entry?

      On March 11, 2011, Japan suffered the strongest earthquake in its recorded history, affecting the north-east area of Honshu. The magnitude 9.0[36] quake was aggravated by a tsunami and also caused numerous fires and damaged several nuclear reactors. On March 12, 2011 reactor 1 at the Fukushima Nuclear Plant suffered a build-up of hydrogen gas, and caused an explosion.[37] On March 13, 2011 there was another explosion, at reactor 3.[38] Radiation levels in the air were below legal limits, however. On March 15, 2011, the Fukushima plant experienced another explosion, this time at reactor 2. There was also a fire at reactor 4.[39] There was a brief spike of radiation, but this then fell back below legal limits. It has since been announced that temperatures in reactors 5 and 6 are rising.[40