Study on IAEA website: Core meltdown risk now around 1,000% higher because of Fukushima — Engineer: Nuclear disaster “a certainty” over next 30 years in Europe

Published: November 2nd, 2013 at 5:49 pm ET


Title: How did Fukushima-Dai-ichi core meltdown change the probability of nuclear accidents?
Source: Available from the INIS Liaison Officer for France
Authors: Escobar Rangel, Lina; Leveque, Francois
Date: October 2012

How to predict the probability of a nuclear accident using past observations? What increase in probability the Fukushima Dai-ichi event does entail? […] We find an increase in the risk of a core meltdown accident for the next year in the world by a factor of ten owing to the new major accident that took place in Japan in 2011. […]

Two months after the fukushima Dai ichi meltdown, a French newspaper published an article coauthored by a French engineer and an economist1. They both argued that the risk of a nuclear accident in Europe in the next thirty years is not unlikely but on the contrary, it is a certainty. They claimed that in France the risk is near to 50% and more than 100% in Europe. […]

The Fukushima Dai-ichi results in a huge increase in the probability of an accident. […]

The Fukushima Dai-ichi effect of [delta] 43 could appear as not realistic. In fact, at first glance the triple meltdown seems very specific and caused by a series of exceptional events. For most observers, however, the Fuskushima Dai-ichi accident is not a black swan. […] It has also been ignored by the nuclear safety agency NISA because as well-demonstrated now the Nippon agency was captured by the nuclear operators (Gundersen (2012)). [Gundersen, A. (2012), The echo chamber: Regulatory capture and the fukushima daiichi disaster, Technical report]

[…] Unfortunately, it is likely that several NPPs in the world have been built in hazardous areas, have not been retrofitted to take into account better information on natural risks collected after their construction, and are under-regulated by a non-independent and poorly equipped safety agency as NISA. […]  a massive release of radioactive elements from a nuclear power plant into the environment is no longer a risk limited to a few unstable countries where scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are still scarce. […]

View the study here

Published: November 2nd, 2013 at 5:49 pm ET


Related Posts

  1. Major Website: Mystery cloud of dangerous iodine-131 over Europe is absolutely cause for concern — Certainly deserves more than 129 words by IAEA November 16, 2011
  2. Former Top IAEA Official: Actually, Fukushima “is a catastrophe for every citizen of the world… radiation doesn’t recognize borders” — Dose from Fukushima fallout in Europe many times higher than California gov’t claimed for West Coast (VIDEO) October 5, 2014
  3. AP: Anonymous IAEA official says iodine-131 release appears to be continuing across Europe November 12, 2011
  4. ABC calls radiation plume over Europe “massive, but harmless” — IAEA now claims Hungary lab likely source of iodine-131 — “Extremely unlikely” says director November 17, 2011
  5. Bloomberg: Nuclear revival dying in Europe — “The future of nuclear energy in Europe looks very dim indeed” says consultant — “Simply too risky” February 14, 2013

95 comments to Study on IAEA website: Core meltdown risk now around 1,000% higher because of Fukushima — Engineer: Nuclear disaster “a certainty” over next 30 years in Europe

  • Oncewaslost Oncewaslost

    Right… so this is confirmation of what many us have said all along. The EQ was the primary issue as it relates to losing the cores, versus the Tsunami.

    • We Not They Finally

      All of it was the problem. All of it, all of it, all of it! Good God! We really need a "main culprit" by now? The above article does not even MENTION EQ versus tsunami.

      Was it the thieves or the liars or the murderers? Pick one or two or three. Was it an EQ or a tsunami or maybe a volcano. Pick whatever you like. Wherever you look, you will find reasons for thinking this technology is nuts.

      This isn't eeny-meeny-miny-mo. WHATEVER caused Fukushima, no, it was not THAT that increased the chances for a nuclear disaster from a European NPP by 1,000%. Not at all. The speaker just felt freer to say that because of the current disaster and they ALL have unacceptable risks. These NPP's, especially the aging ones (which most are by now) are INHERENTLY UNSAFE and need to be shut down.

    • andagi andagi

      Dear Oncewaslost,
      So happy to see ENENews readership and 'Likes' skyrocketing!
      'Wake up little Susie, wake up!'
      Go 'Newsers' 🙂

  • We Not They Finally

    The chance of nuclear disaster elsewhere is greater BECAUSE OF Fukushima? How about they are ALL UNSAFE and this industry needs to be SHUT DOWN? Forty years power at best and then monitor for a million years?

    Human beings designed this? What KIND of human beings and can I please claim not to be of the same species as them.

    • MoonlightEmpire MoonlightEmpire

      Well said:

      "Forty years of power at best and then monitor for a million years…"

      It's not worth it. None of them ever were. Our parents and grandparents were duped, and grew up to be too small to admit their mistakes. Now, those generations contribute to the heaviest degredation of resources and creation of waste products ever seen…and they are the least willing to change their ways.

      Further, those two generations of people are the ones that most of the propaganda is aimed at (in the United States, at least). Many of them are not inclined to do any sort of research into the deeper workings of their society. They are very comfortable believing whatever the television, radio, and newspaper tells them to believe.

      The younger generation that isn't children (those born about 1980 to 1990), is in very serious risk of following in their parents footsteps. Many of us know better, and are trying to change things, but so many of our peers are locked in to superficial things. It's sad that our generation has so much ability to utilize information resources, and yet uses that technology instead for petty gains.

      There will be more meltdowns…not because of Daiichi, but because the sheer existence of nuclear reactors on this planet makes meltdowns a certainty. As of right this moment, we are on course for every reactor on the planet melting down with 100% certainty. There is nothing stopping it until we start stopping it.

      We, not they.

      • unincredulous unincredulous

        Apparently they used probability and statistics to calculate the risk for nuclear power plants. Apparently probability is calculated based on similar experience in the past of an occurrence.

        That is just ignorant on so many levels.

        If I invent something new and deadly, I suppose the probability of me having an accident with the thing is zero percent. Even if I am a complete bungling idiot. Even if I invent death ray: A new type of unstable, reality twisting time bending, space warping frequency based, atom smashing, mind altering, DNA scrambing, planet destroyer.

        Even if I play with it while drunk, In a tornado, during an earthquake and tsunami, in a 1000 year flood. My insurance will certainly pay for everything; or I will get a taxpayer bail out, to the tune of trillions of dollars.

        Sounds like fun, let's rock.

        • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

          We were all scammed and you can not look at this any other way….

        • nedlifromvermont

          It was the Rasmussen Report on Reactor Safety Study, which used "probabilistic" methods to analyze the risk, using a NASA format which even NASA said was inappropriate to the purpose, and which was never accepted by the American Physical Society, and which was delayed and denied, and souped up and spit out by this infamous engineering type from Good Ol' "we'll sell you a study to the highest bidder" MIT, former home of Ernie ("Dr. Nuclear power is so necessary to combat global warming" (another Hoax of the Highest Order)) and some idiot named Norman Rasmussen started multiplying one in one thousand times one in one thousand to come up with a ludicrous number like Joy B. says below: "The chances of a core meltdown are one in thirty million" or some such nonsense, which the industry paid for and wanted to hear because, because …

          NOW GET THIS: None of the experimental runs of the emergency core cooling system was successful; NOT ONE! but the lied-to public believed in white coated, crew cut GE Boneheads willing to suffer a few "Roentgen" for progress;

          And Build the Stupid Things, with the spent(!) fuel up attic, DOH!, and now we are threatened with extinction!

          The story is told in Ralph Nader's seminal book from 1977 "Nuclear Menace" a must read for the 'newser readership!

          That's all for now. Rasmussen is debunked (he keeps his blood money, the greedy bastard;) the children of Tohoku suffer and die, and weep for their stolen future;


          • unincredulous unincredulous

            I liked the world in '77. I know the ones who seem to make sense are cast by the side of the road like an empty bottle of whiskey. Its the airbags that get to the top. I thought Ralph Nader should have been president. I think back then the USA might have had a chance to have a booming economy with a leader that had sense. Now, if it makes sense, there is probably no profit in the man. Seriously, things are really nuts now. For instance, Herman Caine for POTUS. Really? And Ron Paul is the outcast bottle? Really? And the democrats can't even vet this Obama guy? Nothing is as it is presented anymore. Nothing. If I was a kid today and knew what I know now, I think I would find some magic mushrooms, a bag of good pot, and a pretty girl. Come to think about it… (Logout, slam the door, run like hell and never stop. Nah, I'm too sore. Nah, I guess I'll just sit here and die with everyone else…) I still have prayer, but it goes against my nature, even though it is a powerful force. I know it is. I guess I just got no spirituality much anymore. I feel like this world is too profane in its ways to bother God. We can all go to hell. Justice. Numb. Comfortably numb. If they take my S.S. before it even starts, well, whatever. Just hope the youngsters can find spiritual belief not based on deception and lies or wealth or position. Rambling. '77 life was good. I was young and survived the "under your desk" nuclear attack drills of the early 70s. I was free. Not too much…

      • Many or most of the younger generation have checked out. They do not want to clean up their parents mess. They say "Why make us clean it up, when you are the ones that screwed it all up and created messes all over the planet?"

        They also are extremely pissed off about Social Security and Medicare not being there for them when they retire, but they are being forced to pay for the previous generation that also messed everything up. They will not get SS, in their view, so why should they pay at all? In their view, they want to cancel it all, and to heck with the seniors.

        Finally, they know that things have gone to H#**. They see no way to fix it, so they are living for today, short term. They could care less about the future, because they see it as hopeless, worthless and useless.

        They have no jobs, do not see high quality jobs being created and there is no more American Dream for them anyway; (it is all fake and lies).

        So why bother trying to create something new when the massive momentum is carrying all of humanity off the cliff, due to the parent's choices?

        And then there is the small matter of corporate takeover of government, news media, regulators, military industrial complex, monopolies, etc.. How can they change that? They did not create it.

    • It's just that we know about it now. Back when TMI2 melted down, they told us the risks were about 1 in 30 million or something ridiculous. Then just seven years later, Chernobyl. Took 15 years for the next, but it was 3 whole reactors and 4 fuel pools, one with a current core in it. That's gonna mess with anybody's statistical analysis, I don't care who you are.

      You could try to divvy the specific causes, but so far the causes have been multiple failure events. Add 'em up and that's going to mess with your odds as well. Gregory Jaczko opined this past summer that the technology itself is fatally flawed, and he's absolutely correct on that. Once you turn them on, they cannot just be turned off. That's a big problem, and it's incurable.

      • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

        Just the civilian nuclear accidents are almost every year.

        When you add in the military nuclear accidents, it is even more often. So many accidents just get covered up or forgotten.

        • Of course you're right, anne. Heck, they're forever 'losing' x-ray and other medical sources too. But the general public isn't aware of most accidents/stupidities, often they don't get reported at all outside of the area. I was just talking big meltdown international events the public was made aware of.

          And how that covers pretty much all the nuclear technology we've got on this planet so far. That we know of. And never invest money on that bet. They've got stuff we've never dreamed of. If any of them were scalable to what we've got now, they'd be busy selling it. They're not.

        • And think about it… The grid that nukes depend so much upon – to where in a dire emergency the EDGs [Emergency Diesel Generators] have to kick in just to provide enough power for the reactor coolant pumps (rest of the system being isolated) – is more antiquated than these power plants.

          Truth is, we could 'lose' a handful of nukes in just one regional grid blow-out that lasts a week. EDGs have a terrible record for long term (more than a few hours) reliability. We're not as a nation investing in necessary modernization. Don't plan to invest in such things for as far into the future as any Republican and most Democrats in D.C. can see. Which isn't very far in a paradigm of imposed "austerity" and no jobs programs. As of yesterday we're feeding a lot fewer hungry people. They've no plans for recovery.

          Maybe the term "Okies" will take on some new 21st century meaning. Sigh.

          • unincredulous unincredulous

            A solar powered generator as just part of a backup plan would be too much of a boost for the competition, I suppose.

      • Mack Mack

        @JoyB – do you know what kind/how much radiation/radioisotopes are released during the decommissioning of a nuclear power plant? Thank you.

        • Depends entirely on how contaminated ['crapped-up'] the plant and immediate environs are. Can be and has been done. Better than having a constant local source.

          Problem is the spent fuel. They just can't seem to do anything rational with it. Casking works, but is expensive (millions per cask). So they tend to keep the used high-level in the pools. Ever more tightly packed. Even decommissioning doesn't get rid of the accumulated waste, and can't until and unless there's a national repository. I figure eventually there will be temporary regionals. Only one in my region is Savannah River, and they've a lawsuit now against the feds for not having a permanent repository. Meanwhile, NRC licensing is on hold…

          There has never been a better time for the world to choose against nukes. We should not lose that opportunity.

          • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

            I think he (Mack) was looking for a complete list of the radioactive isotopes released and then stored and probably shelf life of each in solid and gaseous forms during the decommissioning process and long term storage consequences.

            • Well, that's situational, as I said. TMI2's dome and cooling towers are still there. Pretty sure its (empty at the time) spent fuel pool – which is in-ground essentially – has been taking a lot of unit 1's garbage for the past nearly 35 years. The containment's too contaminated to demolish. May always be too contaminated to demolish (re-think in 3 or 4 hundred years). But maybe when they decommission unit 1 they can take out the cooling towers for both (there are four) and install some very nice GE 10-Mw wind turbines instead. The island is already a sacrifice zone. I think the locals would love the change of scenery, still feel good about the 'trons contributed to the grid.

              You never know.

        • MoonlightEmpire MoonlightEmpire

          It depends on how much money and resources are spent in doing the job right. You can "decommission" a refrigerator in a laboratory piece by piece with skilled hands…bagging up each bit, cataloging them, organizing them, and so on. This will cost time and money. Or, you can take it out back and pay two guys with sledgehammers and crowbars.

          When its an NPP it makes all the difference. Building the plants is easy because everyone can access every area and every nut and bolt. Once you turn that monster on, you irradiate tremendous amounts of piping and structural areas. Getting into these areas and dealing with the hundreds of miles of highly radioactive piping can be a tremendous problem in the wrong hands. It comes down the the actual person who is doing the job, and the people who are looking over his shoulder, contantly, to make sure it's being done right.

          There are lots of risks involved in decommissioning a NPP, but none of them compare to NOT decommissioning.

          If you want a list of radio-isotopes that can be released during this process, just find one that shows every single possible isotope generated in a plant by the fuel. Knowing how much is volatilized depends on many things, and can range from some of the total, to all of it.

          No matter where they move the pieces to, they remain radioactive and leach into the surrounding strata.

          Just goes to show how horrible NPPs are.

          • nedlifromvermont

            Actually. as expertly told in the opening chapters of the highly readable "We Almost Lost Detroit" the Brookhaven scientists about got it right, in 1957 (year that they had to pass the Price Anderson Act, or no nuclear power business for sure) (#Anne for government complicity, even if Big Nuke money paid for it);

            These guys projected one reactor major malfunction every five hundred reactor operating years, or one every six months in the US with a projected build-out of one thousand reactors, in the GE-pushed-for plutonium economy, with some nuclear parks having up to twenty reactors per site!!

            And these idiots were paid big money!

            And the good guys came to the AEC meeting and figured the atomic power question was answered and the concept would be scrapped; and guess what happened?

            Good Ol' Lewis (damn him to Hell) Strauss, from Wall Street and not a techie, as head of the AEC, LOCKED THIS REPORT IN HIS OFFICE SAFE AND NEGLECTED TO TELL THE OTHERS OF ITS PRESENCE; even though word of its conclusions had leaked out; and what do you know, Congress is goaded to do Price Anderson liability caps: the primal nuclear sin;

            and the rest is a radioactive history of leukemia, cancer and early death;

            which happens to fit right in with GE's cancer diagnostic and therapeutic treatment machine business;

            "a wrap" as they say on Wall Street

            and we stupid Sheeple were worried about "The Russians Are Coming"

            while the true threat was GE all the time!


  • Socrates

    Risk of a nuclear reactor meltdown in Europe in the next thirty years is a certainly…

    France will lose its wine, cheese, and tourist business.

    How stupid is this?

    • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

      I read that France is way too radioactive already even without multiple meltdowns in the future. They have many, many uranium mines and there are many, many bits of uranium everywhere.

      • andagi andagi

        Dear anne,
        I would like to know more about cancer stats in France. Anyone there able to illuminate this?

        • BreadAndButter BreadAndButter

          Hola andagi,
          I live near the French border. I couldn't find cancer info (which is probably swept neatly under the biggest rug available), but this might be of interest as well:
          "French Sperm Count Shows Steady Decline" – worth a read. Radiation might well be a cause, but surely also the rampant use of fertilizers in the French industrial agriculture, which is the biggest in whole Europe.


          • jec jec

            In my small area of interest, some animals are showing sperm count decine. Of course, xrays taken for genetic testing for congential issues, also DAMAGE the sperm count. It recovers, or so its said. However, an animal imported from around the equator–area with minimal nuclear fallout and use of fertizers, has a HUGE count! His 'get' are double or triple in count(double and triple size of pregnancies) from use of local animals as stud. Its amazing. I am purposely not naming the type of animal, as it may not be relevant. A second animal also shows the same ratio of get to pregnancy as well as vigor. Interesting anidote.

            • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

              Sperm? What is sperm? Is that something men are suppose to have? 🙂

              World birth numbers are now in the process of dropping like a rock… 🙁

        • andagi andagi

          As always, thank you 🙂

    • unincredulous unincredulous

      "France will lose its wine, cheese, and tourist business." — Socrates

      Not if they lie about it. It's working for Japan. Well, I guess that depends on your definition of "working," and "is" is.

    • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

      Extremely stupid… 🙁

    • You know, I see how they get this 'every seven years' figure. Take nuclear power generation (commercial scale) from its beginnings, divide by number of meltdowns. But I wouldn't rely on that for my guess as to how prevalent these events may be over the next 20 years. They're antiques now. They're inevitably going to blow as the ops keep stoking 'em.

      The fact that we can't afford any more meltdowns doesn't seem to be making an impact on relicensing for an 'extra' twenty years after the elderly plants are known to suffer osteoporosis (embrittling from neutron bombardment) and RadVirus (the embrittled and not embrittled parts are themselves made radioactive by neutrons). They only wanted the extensions to keep the cash cow going. They're finally paid for, it's all gravy. This should never have even been an argument, much less a justification. Shut 'em down. Now.

  • "There will be meltdowns." – Edwards

    Gordon Edwards math & physics professor:
    Recorded 12-1-2010 (ahead of his time)
    (7 minutes part 4/5)

    The financial question and insurance are also addressed.
    The RISK is on you.
    😉 Amazing…!!!

    • BreadAndButter BreadAndButter

      Hi ChasAha,
      insurance of NPPs is a good point….the Commissar for Energy in the EU (Oettinger, a German pro-nuke hardliner) is currently preparing a reform to "properly insure" the European NPPs. In his view, each NPP should be covered by a 1 billion € insurance – a giant step forward in his eyes.
      One needs to know that currently German NPPs hold a 2 billion € insurance each (so their insurance would in fact be halfed, if the law passes, good for them, eh?), and Fuku so far hast cost roughly 185 billion € – at least.

  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture

    NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS learn the facts, and please stay mindful of them.

    1. Every meltdown to date has been a surprise .. unforeseen, with no warning.

    2. And each has happened from a unique cause, i.e. Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Fukushima, and others.

    • Socrates

      In tort law it is the risk of harm that creates liability. The exact manner in which the harm occurs is irrelevant.

      Ultrahazardous activities such as blasting with dynamite resulted in strict liability for damages. It would be irrelevant to prove that all efforts to use due care under the circumstances was used because the activity was known to have tremendous potential for large magnitude consequences.

      For example, a rock was blown over a mile and killed someone.The mine owner claimed that this was unforseeable. But the very first thing nuclear power industry lobby did was to limit their common law liability. Therefore, they can privatize profits and socialize (externalize) costs.

      If the operators faced unlimited financial liability, there would never have been a nuclear power industry. But enrichment is needed for weapons to protect us, and "they hate us for our freedoms," so our citizens must bear the financial losses and health consequences of meltdowns, however they happen. Common law wisdom was sacrificed for profit and power.

      Profits without responsibility subsidized by our tax dollars is a racket. This will be our downfall.

      Kiss Europe goodbye. Selfish idiots.

      • Oh, I wouldn't exclude the US in the likelihood category. We've still got more than 20 operating reactors of Fukushima design. And Fukushima is the worst disaster to date.

        Think about it. We were basically not told about TMI2. The truth leaked a tad here and there over the decades, but even just the fact that it suffered meltdown was considered 'top secret' for more than two years. TMI2 was a 'modern' PWR, and brand spanking new to boot. Then Chernobyl. I remember the propaganda then. Our reactors are of a different design (Chernobyl was graphite moderated), so ours can never melt. Ignoring the fact that meltdown at TMI had previously (but almost invisibly) been admitted.

        Now Fukushima, to end everybody's ambiguity about GE Mark I's and II's. BWRs. Seems it doesn't matter what the power production dynamics are, the suckers melt. And when they do it's a regular horror show. They're running out of excuses to hide behind.

        • andagi andagi

          Dear JoyB,
          So glad you're here. Within this framework, how do you view China?

        • Socrates

          US is taking same risk as ard others. Thanks for clarifying an underexclusion. The article spoke of Europe.

  • "The risk is higher now" is a euphemism for "who coulda' knowed?" Maybe we had a few blind spots . . . .

  • rogerthat

    Good thing that the purchase of governments, regulators and the judiciary is not standard operating procedure for industries around the globe, hey!! (''We're all bought and paid for'' is the relevant quote}

  • Grampybone Grampybone

    You know what they say about Meth? "Only once." That's what the Russian's knew when Chernobyl burst into the stratosphere. Nixon missed the memo on Thorium, because he wanted more bombs than the communist block and as a result of regulatory madness Mox bomb factories speckle the planet. Sold out to the killers and maniacs hell bent on setting a nuclear spark destined to ignite.

  • behappy1

    The goberment can shutdow

    Why can't the people
    Go marches
    No protest
    Just stay home, take a sick day or four

    Over 80% were against the Bank Bail Out

    There going to cut food stamps
    A program that cost 80 billion a year
    But continue 85 billion a month to the banks
    (at intrest)
    The nsa, its "crossing the line" they say to spy on world leaders
    But its fine to spy on your own people
    (guess were not allies)

    The msm, fuku blackout? epa warnings?

    fuku is only one symptom of
    Somethings Wrong

    • unincredulous unincredulous

      Something's happening here. What it is is exactly clear. There's a man with a radiation cannon over there. Telling me I got to beware. It's time we stop, children what's that glow, everybody see corium going down.

      Oh, yeah, somethings definately wrong. Someone is spiking the Kool Aid, and we are drinking it down.

  • behappy1

    wrong thread

  • Socrates

    Society has become a cultural and technogical mechanism to bring about the extinction of the species. People consume and reproduce without any consciousness of the inevitable consequences. Little thought is given to sustainable levels of consumption and energy sources. The peaceful atom is a necessary part of military-industrial complex. That machine harvests resources from third-world countries and creates hatred that perpetuates violence.

    The French continued their above-ground testing until 1980.

    This short-sightedness will doom Europe. The Europeans will do this to themselves and their own children.

    Using solar and wind would work but we would have to change our ways. Instead, operators will cut corners on maintenance and push old reactors until meltdowns occur.

  • amberlight amberlight

    No, there IS no "increase in the risk of a core meltdown" and no change in the probability factor. NPPs have ALWAYS been at MAXIMUM RISK and the probability of nuclear disaster has ALWAYS been 100%! There is no such thing as 1000% greater risk. All that is needed is 100% guaranteed risk and that we have always had. The only unknowns are the date and method of delivery. To quote the opening line of "A Clockwork Orange," What'll it be then, eh?…

    Volcanic eruption
    Solar disruption (Carrington Event)
    Terrorist attack
    Human error
    Aging, neglect & deterioration

  • Shaker1

    You're absolutely correct, amberlight. Fukushima, in essence, does nothing to increase the possibility of meltdown in Europe. Excuse me, but I've always had a problem with statisticians pontificating numerically over issues about which they know so little. This magic with numbers is, in general, useless exercise of the principles of mathematics. I'm literally amazed at the credence given the discipline, as it exists totally distanced from the actual facts. That something has a 1 in 1000 chance of happening says that it will happen, it also does not say that it will happen on the 1000th chance, nor that it can't happen 1, 2, or 3 times directly in the sequence. A feel-good exercise for the ignorant. (Sorry, I can't find the space to be very nice to this kind of trickery.)

    • MoonlightEmpire MoonlightEmpire

      Just remember the NPP Domino Effect, or "Cascading NPP Failures" or whatever you want to call it.

      It doesn't just have to be Daiichi pumping out rads that make it too hot to work at Daiini, then Daiini pops and makes it too hot to work at the next two and so on…

      Remember that a NPP can go into meltdown for any number of reasons, not least of which being global (or national) economic problems, social upheavals, wars, or even skills gaps or poor quality controls on parts manufacturing.

      So, in essence, Fukushima is very able to contribute to an NPP in Europe melting down because its effects are global. Daiichi is the end of Japan as a functioning nation. On 3/11/2011, Daiichi popped and the socio-political facade of the entire globe dropped to the floor, revealing the nakedness of every "authority figure" in every nation. The only reason we didn't immediately go into NPP cascade was because all efforts were put into pulling that curtain back up.

      We're still in the same situation. NPP cascade is on our doorsteps, and at the moment seems inevitable.

      But anyway, to conclude: In the current system, all NPPs will melt down with 100% certainty, so there is nothing that can/will increase that probability…but it is very possible for a NPP disaster on one side of the world (Japan) to send another one (Europe) into meltdown sooner than it would have otherwise.

    • nedlifromvermont

      especially stupid if the event actually has a once in five hundred or once in three hundred chance of happening …. or one in one …

  • dharmasyd dharmasyd

    Nukes + Captalism = Deadly mix.
    Short term profits, cutting corners to reduce cost, skimping on the cost of materials. The motivations of capitalism are anathema for use with the most powerful and dangerous base energy of the universe.

    • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

      Nukes + Capitalism = no more nukes. Nuclear energy is exorbitantly expensive. Capitalism would require the nuclear industry to be 100% responsible for all liability and no government subsidies. The nuclear industry everywhere is run by fascism or communism. There are no exceptions.

      • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

        Totalitarian governments do not have to answer to anyone for their actions, and by definition, care nothing for the people they rule.

        • unincredulous unincredulous

          Nuclear power is totalitarian by nature. If the peasants storm the castle and kill all the masters of the nuclear torch, the nuclear torch will overheat, the core will melt and destroy the distraught peasants.

          Not much you can do but pray for common sense in the leaders. Fat chance of that.

      • dharmasyd dharmasyd

        I must disagree Ann. Do you think the U.S. nuclear industry is run by fascists or communists? where do you get such an idea? The capitalistic mind set is creating another ELE with climate change. I do not trust unregulated capitalism to create anything beneficial for human beings. And, unfortunately, capitalists are against regulation. They are the ones who worked for the repeal of Glass Steagall and the horrible 1999 Financial Services Modernization Act. The essence of capitalism is greed. And greed, despite what Gordon Gekko said, is NOT good. It is a selfish, "me first" system which is destructive of people, life, the planet. If anything, the US nuke industry , if I had to choose between being communistic or fascistic, I'd say the US nuke industry is closer to fascism. But basically, this kind of argument is a waste of time and misses the point. So I'll say again, Capitlism and Nukes don't mix. I'd like to get rid of unregulated capitalism as well as getting rid of nukes. They are both life destroyers.

    • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

      Ever hear of Mayak? Russian dumping of nuclear waste everywhere on land and in the ocean. Chian has had its accidents also, but they have a tight rein on the news. Communism governments have very little money and short change on materials and on the environment.

      Nukes are poison everywhere. No one wants them. They are stuffed down the throats of a populace that has cough up the costs of both money and lives so the 1% can live rich lives.

      • dharmasyd dharmasyd

        And I think that unregulated capitalism is poison. So, we've both had our says. Probably there is some truth in what each of us has to say.

        • nedlifromvermont

          I agree with both of you, here and mostly always …

          Monopoly power with liability waiver … there is something terribly wrong here …

          but Congress is easily distracted by other things …

      • andagi andagi

        Dear anne,
        Thank you. 'By current estimates, more than 270,000 people have been exposed to high levels of radiation as a result of accidental and deliberate releases of radioactive material from Mayak.'

        • Naha Johari

          Thanks andagi.

          Articles like this one on Mayak though informative are in the vein of the childish ideological crusades that often entrap educated folk, journalists & NGOs alike into power game pawns. "The nuclear situation in Russia is bad because it was communist, authoritarian, fascist & they are not with us on Syria. The nuclear situation in Japan, Western Europe & the United States is OK because we are the good guys & these folks they are our ideological allies so they can do no wrong." Heavens, I hope we are not going down that road in this thread.

          What is bad is bad. Give Homer Simpson control over a NPP under any ideological regime & he will feel compelled to cut corners for very different reasons & eventually be at a loss in the face of an untameable tech from hell & the end result is the same systemic, technocratic & technological failure that unleash lethal rads into the world, be it in a free market capitalist regime, or a communist regime.

          Generalisation of risk by ideological affinity is childish. Regulatory bodies, capitalist or socialist, are destined to fail in the face of greed or ideological phantasm.

          • Dr. Anne Lee Tomlinson Maziar anne

            There is no free market capitalist system any more. And the nuclear industry is EVERY country where it exists is governed by fascism or communism. The nuclear industry can not exist under any other circumstance because it is so expensive, so very, very expensive that it would disappear immediately under a free market capitalist system.

            I am not arguing to return to capitalism without regulation. I am arguing against nuclear energy which has absolutely no worth either from an economic or a human value consideration.

  • nuknomore nuknomore

    Fukushima should be the last straw.. Every nation should not want to ever have to deal with anything like this.
    That they are willing to risk it, when there are alternatives to nuclear , is mind boggling.

  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    They do not care and when you pay for such power generation in rates/bills the electricity generated allows commerce/production which is then taxed heavily by all those feeding off the money streams generated/created and that would be your/their masters in charge/in control of your/their civilization.

    It's quite a dilemma when you allow a collective by law the ability to poison you legally while prospering off those same laws they wrote for you to follow benefiting them/theirs.

    Always follow the money as it will always flow up to those in control via the laws written to control your purse strings via legal law enforcement practices.. 🙁

    Ergo: Why the top 10% now owns everything…and it's all legal 🙂

    • Sol Man

      Your last statement is very correct- in that they own this catastrophe. As the invisible people had no say that this technology was going to be forced onto the world. The top .01% wanted for their gravy train. It is also correct that they will manipulate the legislatures to force those invisible people to cough up the funds to pay for this, as well as all of the other catastrophes they bring the world.

  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Sol, I literally meant that they do own everything legally and that would be corporations, lands, governments etc. The physical tangible assets/money of/representing our entire world. Of course your implication that they also own all the bad that comes from my above statements would/could be a little misleading.

    The way the laws are currently being written via legal "Word Craft" are that all loses have been socialized, meaning that the bottom 90%, who own nothing and/or very little, cover any loses created/generated by the/that top 10%. This was solely created by the initial created living law "Word Craft" design and is now an international issue/problem as well as an individual country issue like here in the US.

    The top 10% have not only control of the private sector wealth but also control all the government generated/from taxes/expenditures/benefits of ownership wealth. Many rich people control and are inside your/all governments and they are making your "to follow" laws. There are many examples clarifying that it is this " top 10% money" is the money that actually runs your governments/laws and not you and/or the common citizen whom thinks he/she is in the one in charge.

    The new laws being created by most governments are being created to protect the/this top 10% wealth stream/control period. They are not being written to benefit you the common rate/tax payer citizen or the bottom 90% in any way and they probably never have been.

    It is what it is…

    • unincredulous unincredulous

      Seems like social security for the rich. How about we redistribute all wealth evenly, then lose social security system and word craft. Then, maybe we could all live a decent life, until these nuclear nuts kill us all. (what, about 20 years?)

  • obewanspeaks obewanspeaks

    Sol sorry, I reread your comment and yes I think you know what I meant with your reference to the invisible people. The invisible people must represent or be the bottom 90%, who are invisible and/or just another pillage-able number.. 🙂

  • "Our parents and grandparents were duped, and grew up to be too small to admit their mistakes. Now, those generations contribute to the heaviest degredation of resources and creation of waste products ever seen…and they are the least willing to change their ways."

    but, but , but they are the "greatest generation" we are told,, louder and louder.

    Once you face the facts the despots and crackpots just wear suits and ties instead of over the top military dress makes no difference then you get to the core issue, the same people have always led us to slaughters and genocides from time immemorial.
    Either side had numbers and lists of numbers of "assets" to implement.
    Fathers, uncles and sons and daughters are "assets" to be expended, exploited and exterminated.
    The nuclear world started as a weapon, exists as a weapon and will likely end our world as a weapon. Covert or overt means no difference to the dead.

    • MoonlightEmpire MoonlightEmpire

      Well said.

      Some of the truths of our nations can be seen within our own families. Our elders aren't inherently bad people, but they've lived the majority of their lives without a single thought about their lifestyle's impact on the world and people around them. They bought into every single commercially available item and service was ever touted as something that made something about life "easier".

      Most of them never thought, or cared, that those choices were leading to the destruction of everything that they thought they DID care about.

      I love my elders, but the writing is on the wall: These people are out of touch, out of shape, and out of the loop.

      There is a new generation that is about to emerge on the scene. We have the choice: Continue living in this ignorance, or take the reigns from the hands of the blind conductors running amok.

      You are right, the same sort of people have been leading nations to destruction from the very beginning…just going through wardrobe changes every so many years. Many people are followers, so until that changes, it is the responsibility of the rest to make sure the right person is in the lead.

      And yes, NPPS are weapons…and are now essentially steam-punk relics of a time in human history when–for the blink of an eye–everyone just looked the other way.

      • Ana Ana

        "These people"? Some of us have been against nuc for our whole lives. Its nice that you are about to "emerge on the scene". Follow in my old footsteps and keep trying to stop this madness.

      • Foggyworld

        I'm sitting here at age 71 and frankly think you know not how or what your parents and grandparents did or thought. I'm with Ana and have worn myself out fighting nuclear power and haven't noticed an abundance of this new generation at meetings, rallies or libraries.

        Don't be so foolish as to ignore the fact that many who have come before you are just as bright and aware as you claim to be. If you continue on with your arrogance you will often find yourself reinventing the wheel. That's a time waster of the first rank and there frankly is very little time left to waste.

  • TheBigPicture TheBigPicture


    Reactors blow and melt. And no antidote to fix it. Chernobyl will be hot for hundreds of years, and Fukushima is hundreds of times stronger than Chernobyl.

    Only an idiot would allow nuclear reactors. The technology must be abolished.

    • nedlifromvermont

      @TBP … as usual, spot on.

      Before Fukushima, I had hoped I might one day see my local reactor (Vermont Yankee) close down.

      After Fukushima, I realized we must fight, with all of our considerable and collective power, to shut down this entire unnecessary industry, in every country, and for all time.

      Hence the power and glory of enenews and our online community: reinvigorating the debate and spreading the good news of the demise of this cold war relic, and unnecessary boondoggle.

      We were hoodwinked and hornswoggled(?)

      Lewis Strauss (first head of US Atomic Energy Commission) was the original and ultimate terrorist and homo horribilis.

      Shut them all down, right away. Nuclear power is a false God and was never necessary, despite what you may have been led to believe.

      GE should give the Japanese back the money they paid for the nuclear division. If GE won't get out of nuclear fuel fabrication, then get GE out of business: revoke their corporate charter and liquidate. All the executives will get rich anyway, which should not be.

      oh, and peace …

  • pkjn

    Texas-sized toxic 'island' of Japan tsunami waste approaching US
    5 November 2013 Voice of Russia
    A huge chunk of toxic debris from Japan’s 2011 tsunami is inevitably nearing the US West coast. Currently 1,700 miles away, between Hawaii and California, the “isle of junk” is worth million tons, while another million is still wandering in the Pacific.
    Some of the debris may have already crossed the Pacific, as reports claim Japanese fishing vessels to have been washed up to Canadian shores as early as winter of 2011. In this case, the level of toxic junk already on the US beaches is probably high.

  • mesa777

    Wow, if western Europe's odds are 100% for a corium meltdown I wonder what the odds are of a Middle Eastern meltdown? Say maybe a +200% chance. Very very disturbing news. Anyone have a old missile silo for sale? I may need it!

  • Alaskan Ice Alaskan Ice

    Let me suggest the real bogeyman in an industry where one out of 450 nuke plants goes kaput a la Chernobyl or Fukushima every ten or twenty years, causing hundreds of billions or tens of trillions of dollars of damages, necessitating an INDUSTRY KILLING INSURANCE PREMIUM BETWEEN 50-500 MILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR!!!!

    "NATIONAL SECURITY" you fools!!!! Most of these countries signed the NPT and built "commercial" nuke plants so that if and when "the world changed" they'd be only one step away from building nuke-bombs and being one of the "big boys." Japan isn't covering TEPCO's ass for any other reason at this point.

    • 16Penny 16Penny

      If you could see past the end of your nose you would realize that in reality it is "NATIONAL LIABILITY" or if you pull your head out of "dark storage" you could see it is "GLOBAL LIABILITY". I hope that when the "world changes" it is a few more steps away from building more nuke-bombs rather than more fools tinkering with dangerous toys. Go melt.

      • Naha Johari

        China getting more & more rat-arsed re Senkaku islands. Fatboy playing ballistic toys in DPRK. More neocon prodding from Washington. Asian pivot. Right wing swing. Shinzo Abe. Nuke deterrent option. Money money money. GE-Hitachi & Toshiba-Westinghouse smelling big money opportunism in playing patriotic zaibatsu. A new military-industrial whorehouse for the 1% vampires. What's hidden in Fukushima & Rakkosho is worth killing millions of Japanese & Americans.

        National security my fart. Just pride from a stupid culture of bullying that has a worship/loathe relationship with blue eyed gaijin.

        That's how I see this charade.

      • Alaskan Ice Alaskan Ice

        Dear 16Penny you are obtuse. I said "bogeyman" for a reason. As I stated, beyond being low-level cancer factories, nuclear power plants are uneconomical and uninsurable, particularly when one accounts for the intermittent and catastrophic losses foisted by nations upon their people.

        And, in Alaska, we have none, except the concern that we don't know what is coming our way from Fukushima because it seems there is a willful blindness to test seafood.

        However, the tacit assumption on this website seems to be that the media blackout(s) and the government(s) inaction are all the result of corporate and globalist energy interests.

        Let me suggest that the silence and the death are more about governments wanting to or letting others build nukes in the future. (Their definition of "national security" not mine, sweetheart!)

        • Alaskan Ice Alaskan Ice

          Looking past my nose, I can't help mentioning the crazy flip side to governments wanting "commercial" nuclear power plants in order to maintain or grant to allies the turn-key capacity to build nuclear weapons for "national security" in the future:

          One nuclear bomb turns a nation into swiss cheese (a la Hiroshima or Nagasaki) for about 10 or 20 years, but one melted down reactor turns a nation into swiss cheese for a thousand years (a al Chernobyl or Fukushima). The sickening result is that we (as a species) are at a greater (long term) danger from the bombing/targeting/sabotaging/scuttling of the existing 450 nuclear power plants worldwide in a putative war than we are from the detonation of 5000 or so operational warheads.

          Targeted or scuttled nuclear power plants, en mass, are the real "doomsday device" from "Dr. Strangelove."

  • pkjn

    Japan lawmaker reprimanded after emperor letter hits nerve
    TOKYO Fri Nov 8, 2013
    (Reuters) –
    On Friday, Parliament's upper house barred Yamamoto from attending events with the imperial family and issued a stern warning, an official said.
    Yamamoto, an actor and anti-nuclear activist elected to the upper house in July, said he had wanted to tell the emperor about the "endangered future" of Japanese children due to health problems from Fukushima.
    A vast swathe of land remains off-limits, while traces of radioactive contamination have been found in rice and far out in the Pacific Ocean.
    The issue of nuclear reactors is a minus for the government, and that's one probable reason the reaction is so strong.

  • pkjn

    Japan lawmaker gets death threat for breaching imperial etiquette
    13 November 2013 Voice of Russia
    The menacing letter, discovered by security officers at a Tokyo building filled with lawmakers' offices, warned that "a group of assassins will be dispatched shortly".
    Inside the envelope was a clasp knife with a nine-centimetre (3.5 inch) blade.
    The threat was directed at actor-turned-politician Yamamoto, who was elected to parliament as an independent on a strongly anti-nuclear platform.
    Yamamoto has said the hand-written note had been his attempt to let the emperor know directly about the plight of people affected by the atomic disaster at Fukushima.

  • unincredulous unincredulous

    Nuclear power is too big to succeed.

  • pkjn

    Fukushima fallout damaged thyroid glands of California babies
    19th November 2013 The Ecologist
    Confirmed cases of hypothyroidism, defined as those with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone level greater than 29 units increased by 21% in the group of babies that were exposed to excess radioactive Iodine in the womb. The same group of children had a 27% increase in 'borderline cases'.
    Our paper reports 44 confirmed thyroid cancer cases in 0-18 year olds in Fukushima in the last six months (a figure that has since risen to 53). In the hypothyroidism paper we discuss the 44 cases relative to the population and calculate that this represents an 80-fold excess based on national data prior to the Fukushima Iodine releases.

  • Heart of the Rose Heart of the Rose

    The IAEA..praises the clean-up at Fukushima..
    But is also asking for a new drone to monitor radiation levels.

    IAEA praises Japan's Fukushima clean-up operation
    Dec 4 2013

    IAEA promotes hexacopter drone to measure radiation levels around Fukushima