Wind blew from Fukushima to Tokyo on day Reactor No. 3 exploded — Radiation cloud reached south of Shizuoka on March 14 (MAP)

Published: March 1st, 2012 at 12:04 pm ET



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Title: Assessment of Release Scenarios for the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident
Source: Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
Authors: Orr B, Grzechnik M, Solomon S, Tinker R, Jepsen D

[…] Evaluation of the atmospheric dispersion model and its input source term and release scenario was undertaken by comparison of the predictions with the reported concentration measurements taken downwind of the actual release. […]

(Wikipedia: “At 11:15 JST [02:15utc] on 14 March, the envisaged explosion of the building surrounding Reactor 3 of Fukushima 1 occurred”)

24 hour release starting 0600utc 14-3-2011:

Pulse release starting 1700utc 14-3-2011:


Published: March 1st, 2012 at 12:04 pm ET


Related Posts

  1. Gov’t simulation shows radioactive plume of Krypton-85 over Tokyo March 15 — Reactor No. 3 with MOX exploded March 14 June 5, 2011
  2. “Really troubling” wind shift said NRC: 1,000 microSv thyroid dose south of Tokyo over ten hour period on Mar. 14 reported US Navy — 300km from Fukushima — “This reminds me of the drill” March 1, 2012
  3. Kyodo: Radiation forecast can “by no means” be released to public decided gov’t on Mar. 15 — Showed radioactive cloud could spread over Tokyo area March 3, 2012
  4. US gov’t map shows radioactive particles took direct route to Tokyo after Reactor No. 3 exploded May 23, 2012
  5. US Navy vice admiral reported 1,500 microsieverts per hour thyroid dose south of Tokyo on March 20 February 26, 2012

41 comments to Wind blew from Fukushima to Tokyo on day Reactor No. 3 exploded — Radiation cloud reached south of Shizuoka on March 14 (MAP)

  • Mack Mack

    "To put it mildly, the pipes at Fukushima were a mess. Over the decade prior to the Tohoku quake, TEPCO was told repeatedly about the poor state of the plant’s pipes, ducts, and couplings. Fukushima was sighted numerous times for deteriorating joints, faked inspections and shoddy repairs. Technicians talk of how the systems didn’t match the blueprints, and that pipes had to be bent to match up and then welded together."

    Quote from Gregg Levine's new article:

  • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

    I feel these maps are misleading. If this is the trajectory they are claiming the plume for #3 took then immediately following the explosion Unit 4 building would have been engulfed by the lower end of the settling plume and from the video evidence one can see it was not.
    I'm sure that once the plume was blown out over the sea which the video evidence shows it clearly was, then it is possible that a sea breeze could have blown what later fell back down towards the direction of Tokyo.

    • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

      When the explosion took place at #3 there WAS NO sea breeze at Daiichi that blew the plume back in towards the NPP!

      • ENENews

        It is not showing the trajectory of the No. 3 explosion.
        It is showing the spread of radiation in the 24-hour period of March 14.
        Also, wind direction varies by altitude, so the wind direction observed at camera level may not correspond with higher elevations.

        • HoTaters HoTaters

          Good point.

          • ENENews


            "While at first sight it seemed fortunate that westerly winds prevailed most of the time during the accident, a different picture emerges from our detailed analysis. Exactly during and following the period of the strongest 137Cs emissions on 14 and 15 March"

            "The plume covered large parts of centraleastern Honshu and crossed over Tokyo and other major population centers before it left Japan"


            • Kevin Kevin

              This is remarkable admin.

              The official narrative and dominant meme is that Japan was "lucky" as a result of the wind blowing westerly at this crucial time. It is reported by the likes Arnie on down and underscored in the recent PBS documentary which aired two nights ago.

              The message has been welded into the public psyche as a result, in complete opposite to the facts now coming to light. One cannot imagine a worse case scenario and yet another example of the large effort to cover up the stark reality. This informatoin was known, obviously, nearer to the time of the event and once again people cuold have responded appropriately versus simply living under an illusion of "luck."

        • Bobby1

          It is showing the spread of radiation in Japan on March 14, for the part of the plume which was at low altitudes. The part of the plume which was at high altitudes, which was forcibly ejected into those altitudes by the explosion, which was by far the more significant amount, went over the Pacific toward North America.

        • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

          What, you think people that visit this website are stupid? Look at any jet stream map and it will show you exactly where the plume was headed, beginning at around 11,000 ft. It is a known FACT that China's pollution contaminates the West coast of America. FACT NOT FICTION, and China is to the EAST of Japan!

    • SnorkY2K

      the winds aloft can be in different directions from surface wind. Balloonists use that for some navigation.

  • Mack Mack

    Look at how much of Japan was blanketed with radiation from Reactor 3 just on March 14th.

    How much of it was Plutonium? Strontium?

  • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

    There are other events which dismiss this account of the direction the #3 plume traveled including the fact that a U.S. carrier had to leave the area and some 100 miles farther away from the coast. Also there is this forecast by Accuweather,

  • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

    So going by this story all that debris washed out to sea will be safe to handle and rummage through once it reaches the coastlines along the West Coast U.S., Hawaii or wherever is may end up.

    • ENENews

      The CTBTO map shows just one day, March 14.
      Were you aware there where other days both before and after March 14 that radiation could have been spread over tsunami debris and the USS Ronald Regan?

      • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

        Dear Admin. I respect your opinion and analysis, however the fact remains that the tsunami debris could contain high radioactive material. I have yet to see one main stream media story pointing to this potential danger. That debris is projected to reach the U.S. coastline sometime in the next few months, years. It will not be safe to look at or rummage through. People visiting beaches where this debris comes to shore could be at great health risk, yet nothing ABSOLUTELY about is being reported in the mainstream other than it is headed their way. Again I respect your point of view.
        I just feel it callous and irresponsible not to inform the public that they are in harms way. Think about a hurricane senario, people MOVE TO GET OUT OF HARMS WAY because they have be FOREWARNED about the danger approaching. They worry about picking up the pieces later, but for now the most important thing to do is LIVE!
        It appears that there has been a concerted effort to play down an event that is FAR worse than they would have the public believe it is all for the sake of profit and power for those that created the mess. How do they sleep at night?

  • lam335 lam335

    "The activities of this source term were based on a 1 % core release for a single 2380 MWth reactor (PDC, 2008) resulting in total I-131 and Cs-137 activities of 1.2E16 Bq and 8.1E14 Bq respectively. This paper presents the approach taken to validate the release scenario by coupling monitoring data with atmospheric simulations….

    … The modelling predicts that a pulse release of less than 2% for I-131 and less than 10% for Cs-137 of the source term would result in the detected levels at the JPP38 station on 15-3-2011, or a continuous leak of less than 0.2% per hour for I-131 and 1% per hour for Cs-137 of the source term."

    So what exactly are they saying the model indicates about how much was likely released? They start by assuming 1% of the core was released. But then they conclude by saying "less than 2% for I-131 and less than 10% for Cs-137 of the source term would result in the detected levels."

    So, with regard to I-131 and Cs-137, 2% and 10% of what? Of the 1% of the core they assumed damaged/released to come up with the "source term"? Or are they saying the initial 1% assumption was wrong.

    But if much more than 1% of the core was actually damaged, so that their initial source term is wrong, how would it change their findings?

    They conclude: "The source term used to model a pulse release was shown to be a conservative estimate."

    You think? If the reactor itself exploded, as the NRC evidently believes, and pieces of fuel rods were scattered hither and yon, why would you assume only 1% core damage?

    I am not sure how to interpret the significance of this study.

    • Bobby1

      According to the TORCH report, Chernobyl released 1.76E18 Bq of iodine-131. This report states Fukushima released less than 1% of this amount.

      Another bogus whitewash study.

      • Mack Mack

        Don't know if this will help, but here's with the CTBTO monitor detected in Japan:

        * March 12th

        Cs-137 = 1.2E-05
        I-131 = 8.3E-05

        * March 13th

        Cs-137 = 7.1E-04
        I-131 = 2.7E-03

        * March 14th – not available

        * March 15th

        Cs-137 = 5.6E+00
        I-131 = 1.5E+01

        * March 16th

        Cs-137 = 1.6E-02
        I-131 – 5.6E-02

        Why aren't there any results for March 14th?

        If they had those results, would the total percentage of Cs-137 and I-131 detected be much higher?

  • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

    It is just more damage control. If that plume, which a good part of the worlds population witness being blown sky high from the belly of reactor 3, was mostly blown in the direction of Tokyo, then long ago thousands of people would have been literally dropping dead in the streets!

    • Mack Mack

      Consider that the explosion did blow it sky high where a lot was trapped in the atmosphere, but the rest of it fell down and was whipped around by the winds, where it settled in as "fallout."

      The maps are showing projected fallout.

  • StillJill StillJill

    Their lips are moving though friends,….does anyone really believe any numbers lately?

    I feel like that commercial where the guy is being handed a bunch of balony on the phone, and he says, "Yeah, right,…and I own a unicorn ranch"!

    That's how I feel!

  • or-well

    It's been almost a year, and the wind didn't cease, nor did releases, and all their excuses won't stop diseases.

    Nuclear family

    Mother and Child,
    Father holds baby,
    the young exposed,
    injured gravely
    by radiations
    isotope medley.

    Love and wailing,
    Kids health failing,
    Obediance binds them,
    Fear reminds them,
    Lies confuse them,
    Power abuses them.

    On the horizon
    rises the Sun,
    to the seashore
    all the waves run,
    up in the air
    kinetic energy,
    buried below
    steam's not an enemy.

    The Future must guard
    eternal poison,
    change will come hard
    with ample reason,
    nuclear power
    and Elite corrosion
    endangers our hours,
    kills and devours.

    Already in Autumn
    heading for Winter,
    will there be Spring
    followed by Summer?
    I think I hear
    an advancing drummer.

  • kintaman kintaman

    My wife and I stayed mostly inside with the windows and vents taped up until we were able to leave Tokyo.

    Sitting in the apartment watching the military helicopters flying around like crazy while the TV played "ACジャパン" commercials over and over was almost insanity inducing.

    Particularly these two commercials: <– This was to encourage people to get cancer screenings which simply added to the insanity!!

  • StillJill StillJill

    Good for you Kintaman! Keep those memories close if ever you have doubts! I know you used to,….but I'm thinkin' not so much anymore, Yes? 🙂

  • Laterlukemayb Laterlukemayb

    Just looked at the front pages of two main Japanese news media outlets.
    Fukushima on one didn't even get a mention although there is a link at the top for the nuclear crisis, and one the other site it has a side bar designated for opinions about the Fukushima disaster.

    Tepco's name doesn't appear on either site. Is this because ownership of TEPCO has been assumed by another company in order to remove the crisis from the public eye?

  • retali8 retali8

    i always thoguht the plume went over the ocean and towards the west coast of america and canada,, so this could be to cover there asses… the fact they never warned the public to prepare is in the list of crimes against humanity… you see..

    • Kevin Kevin

      The issue is two fold.

      Low level contaminents will flow with prevailing winds.

      However radiation particles that reach upper levels and find their way into the jetstream are the ones you are referring to.

      An explosion would do both. Subsequent releases would largely remain in local prevailing winds, although not all of them.

  • Well so much for the authorities saying the wind was taking all the radiation out to sea ! FUKU gov. news people lier's !!!

  • If the people had known, they could have made the choice to stay indoors !